Even though two of the most reliable Oscar predictors (the Producers Guild and Directors Guild nominees) haven’t been announced yet, my bosses at EW asked Read the full post.
Jan 2
2009
06:26 PM ET
Oscar predictions: Am I right or wrong?
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Alan of Montreal – you are SMART!
Remember back at the 2006 Oscars, when Jack Nicholson, someone who’s been very lucky with the Oscars, and was also a front runner for Best Supporting Actor for The Departed? Remember how he was turned down for Mark Wahlberg? I think the same thing will happen with Clint Eastwood and Leonardo DiCaprio. Leonardo will get the nomination, but Clint won’t. Also, people are forgetting that Clint was overlooked by the SAGs AND the Golden Globes, Leonardo was nominated for a Golden Globe, at least. I think the Best Actor nominees will be the same as the Golden Globe nominees for Best Actor in a Drama.
wall e will make it in over frost/nixon, i’m pretty positive. if not, it’s a travesty. wall-e might not even be in my top five, but considering all the praise it’s gotten (MUCH more than frost/nixon) to not be nominated is just stupid
allthingsfangirl.blogspot.com
re: yvan
as much as let the right one in should win best foreign, it won’t be nominated. sweden didn’t submit it.
http://allthingsfangirl.blogspot.com/2008/12/let-right-one-in-wont-be-winning-oscar.html
To the person who wrote:
-Best Actor: Mickey Rourke
-Best Actress: Sally Hawkins
Those were one-note novelty performances and do not deserve to win or even be nomineted).
Sam, you are wrong. Those are the two best roles of the year. Go and be proved wrong. You are entitled to your opinion. It’s wrong, but your entitled to it.
hmm. frost/nixon might get replaced by the wrestler if it gains buzz. i think richard jenkins will replace brad pitt or clint eastwood. i think anne hathaway will win the best actress oscar. kate winslet will probably take best supporting actress. heath will win best supporting actor.
Unfortunately, I think most of your predictions will be right, which means the Academy will get a lot of things wrong as usual. People too often confuse the Academy’s opinion with what “must be” the correct opinion. I don’t think the Academy has enough credibility to be considered the end-all body of film awards, but I can’t say they aren’t still fun to participate in!
Anyways, my only differing prediction from yours is that Revolutionary Road will sneak in for Best Picture over The Dark Knight. I think it has been building up more and more steam as we get closer to the nominations and the Academy has too much of a preference for sophisticated literary adaptations over “popcorn” movies, no matter how intelligent and epic The Dark Knight was.
I thought Sally Hawkins was a bit of a dark horse. It’ll be reallly interesting to see if she can pull this off.
MY PREDICTED OMISSIONS FROM KARGER’S LIST:
-’Rev Road’ and ‘Doubt’ over ‘Milk’ and ‘F/N’
-Leo DiCaprio (‘Rev Road’)over Clint (enough w/ Clint, he’s playin the same craggly old man)
-Michelle Williams (‘Wendy and Lucy’) over Hawkins and Blanchett (‘Button’)over Jolie (just like last year actually…Jolie is always lackluster and Blanchett is always divine)
I think your predictions are great, Dave. I am thinking, though, that Frost/Nixon will likely get replaced by Wall-E, because I don’t think there will be many people putting it as their #1 or even #2 (and rightly so, because it wasn’t that great).
I also think Leonardo DiCaprio will replace Clint Eastwood in the Best Actor category – I just don’t feel there is Clint love this year, I think people are finally over it.
the only shocker i can see coming is if wall e gets a best pic nod instead of just being isolated in the animation category. other wise, seems pretty solid. although i’d love to see michelle williams in there…sigh…
Ryan, I agree with everything you said, including that Revolutionary Road will get nominated over The Dark Knight.
fancypants, the Academy would never nominate Michelle Williams because none of them are going to bother to watch Wendy and Lucy. And even though Blanchett was much more impressive than Jolie’s wooden performance, that doesn’t mean they’re going to nominate her.
Also, you are forgetting the fact that Clint Eastwood’s performance in Gran Torino is his self-proclaimed “last,” and they already love him so much that they wouldn’t even consider not nominating him. Plus, he’s done better in the critic’s prizes thus far than Leo.
I agree with your best pic predictions. Dark knight or Wall-E–not both, as they fall into similar category in terms of best picture-type nominees. Dark knight will be rewarded for buffo box office, sentinemt for Ledger, etc. Best actor–Richard Jenkins over Brad Pitt. Best actress–Melisa Leo rather than Hawkins.
Richard Jenkins in The Visitor OR Melissa Leo in Frozen River. Or maybe even both.