I’ve been thinking about this year’s Best Actress race over the last few days and something interesting occurred to me: Whereas there are three men (Sean Penn, Mickey Rourke, and Frank Langella) who have landed on every major awards list so far, almost all the strongest female contenders have been overlooked by at least one important pre-Oscar group. Kate Winslet won the Golden Globe but was left off the Broadcast Critics nominees list (and they even included six competitors). Sally Hawkins picked up the other Globe and swept the big critics prizes (New York, Los Angeles, and National Society) but was snubbed by SAG, BAFTA, and the Broadcast Critics. Anne Hathaway won Best Actress honors from the National Board of Review and tied for the BFCA win but didn’t make it on the BAFTA list either (and yes, she was eligible). And Angelina Jolie made all the major shortlists (SAG, BFCA, BAFTA, and Globes) but hasn’t actually won a single influential prize. That leaves the one actress who’s been recognized by each and every big pre-Oscar group and has a substantial win under her belt: Meryl Streep, who claimed the other Best Actress prize from the BFCA. Even though she received some harsh A-list reviews when the film was released last month, she’s remained at the top of the contenders list in her category. In this year’s tightest major race, will consistency make the difference and propel Streep to her third Oscar win after all? Or will Winslet or Hathaway overcome a past snub to win favor with the Academy? When the nominations are announced next Thursday, we’ll see perhaps the most important factor: How many nominations voters throw to Revolutionary Road, Rachel Getting Married, and, of course, Doubt. I’m convinced that overall Academy support for the eventual winner’s film will be the deciding factor in which actress goes home with the trophy.
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Hathaway wasn’t snubbed by BAFTA. Her film didn’t play there in 2008 so she she’s not eligible until next year.
I’d love to see her pick it up, but I don’t think that the Academy can continue to ignore Kate Winslet, regardless of who actually turned in the finer performance.
@DRL88: I agree. I haven’t seen either performance, so I wouldn’t know if one was better than the other (although I would assume both are equally great), but I think the fact that Kate HASN’T won an Oscar yet will tip the balance in her favor.
I want Kate Winslet to win so that Penelope Cruz can win in Supporting
I’ve seen all 3 performances, and while they are all fantastic and definitely deserve a nomination I have to give it to Kate. Every feeling and characteristic that I felt about April Wheeler reading the book came across in her performance and so much more. Meryl isn’t memorable enough and this is only Anne’s first one so give her time. This has to be Kate’s year.
I love Streep, in everything she is in and I wouldn’t deny her a third oscar. Honestly she should have won that third oscar for 2002′s Adaptation, but that’s another story. I don’t think she can win this year. I think that with Kate Winslet’s sweep at the golden globes puts her in the front for Best Actress for Revolutionary Road. I also think Kate’s is the best performance of the predicted nominees. If Winslet is going to win this year it will be an easier choice in the Best Actress race rather than the Supporting Actress race, Tomei and Davis are tough contenders.
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In general, I would just say the best supporting actress category is the most exciting. I want everyone that is likely to be nominated to win. I’m cheering for Cruz though because she won the most critic awards and I thought her Volver performance was overlooked because of the behemoth that was Helen Mirren.
TO JAY: You are wrong, Anne Hathaway was in fact eligible for a BAFTA, and was in fact listed on their long list of nominations. Go here if you don’t believe me:
http://www.awardsdaily.com/?p=5588#more-5588
The fact is, Rachel Getting Married had no opened wide in the UK, and had no buzz. The Brits just didn’t like it. So there it is.
As for Meryl Streep, Dave Karger, I’m starting to agree with you…. I think the Academy wants to give Kate Winslet an Oscar this year, but I don’t think they want to do it twice. And since Meryl hasn’t won in decades, and she’s been nominated a million times, I’m thinking that they will feel that she’s due again at last. So, I predict that Kate will get Supporting Actress, and Meryl will get Best Actress.
Can Sally Hawkins be eligbile for a SAG if she’s not a member of SAG (a US group, not british)???
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I think Kate is going to win in the supporting race. Revolutionary Road isn’t strong enough for her to win the lead race, and while The Reader isn’t that strong either, Kate is pretty good in it I don’t think the Academy is going to reward Anne on her first nomination, which leaves the race to Meryl. Which, by the way, she deserves. Meryl owns that movie and elevates all the performances to what they were.
Oh my god, my family was in California for a while and she worked with someone as a traveling nurse named Fatima. Apparently the name is more common than I thought. Anyway, I think the Academy may feel it is time to give Meryl Streep another award, and Kate Winslet is a sure thing in my mind for Best Supporting Actress. But you never know! There’s always an upset or two.
No she won’t win. Meryl is in a point in her life where a space is just left to her to be nominated. Not that she will win. I mean, she was nominated ofr Music of the Heart, come on. Anne Hathaway will win the Oscar most likely and Kate in the Supporting Actress category.
My hope is that Meryl & Kate tie for the Best Actress oscar !! That Kate doesn’t have one and Meryl hasn’t won one in 25 years (0/10 in noms since ’84) and that both gave such astounding performances this year means there is only ONE reasonable solution !! A TIE !!