Get ready for another screwy, unpredictable weekend at the box office, as the expanded releases of several Oscar-nominated movies (notably, Slumdog Millionaire, Frost/Nixon, Revolutionary Road, and The Wrestler) battle two formidable freshman flicks (Underworld: Rise of the Lycans and Inkheart). Oh, and let’s not forget the current No. 1 movie in the land, Paul Blart: Mall Cop, which may well repeat as champ once the dust settles. Without further ado, my picks.
1. Underworld: Rise of the Lycans — $20 million
Kate Beckinsale, hubby/director Len Wiseman, and Scott Speedman pretty much sat out this prequel to the hit action series, whose first two installments opened at $21.8 mil and then $26.9 mil. Now, Rhona Mitra, Bill Nighy, and Frost/Nixon star Michael Sheen are the big names on the marquee — so, yeah, expect grosses to be a little lower this time around. But not too much: Judging by the $62.3 mil total take of 2006′s Underworld: Evolution, the franchise seems to have plenty of bite left in it.
2. Inkheart — $16 million
It’s a family film based on a popular kids’ book starring successful-family-film veteran Brendan Fraser (Journey to the Center of the Earth). I mean, what more do you need to know?! Okay, here’s a few more facts. Last year around this time, The Spiderwick Chronicles opened with $19 mil; two years ago, Bridge to Terabithia premiered with $22.6 mil. Inkheart may not have the broad brand-name appeal that those predecessors boasted, but it shouldn’t come in far behind where they did.
3. Paul Blart: Mall Cop — $15 million
Yeah, yeah, I got blindsided last week. But I have an excuse! It wasn’t so much that I didn’t see the Kevin James comedy’s huge $31.8 mil debut coming from a mile away. It’s that I simply refused to believe it.
4. Gran Torino — $13 million
A total Oscar shut-out should slow Clint Eastwood’s latest as it approaches the $100 mil mark.
5. Slumdog Millionaire — $11 million
Danny Boyle’s 10-time Academy Award nominee is already a big millionaire at the box office, having grossed $44.7 mil in merely medium release since November. It gets its widest run yet this weekend, more than doubling its screen count to 1,411 theaters, and should draw crowds interested in seeing what all the fuss has been about. Fellow expanding Oscar nominees Frost/Nixon (which is a great movie but has to do with a period in time that filmgoers either aren’t familiar with or may not want to revisit), Revolutionary Road (which got just one major-category nomination, despite its pedigree), and The Wrestler (which is playing in a still-relatively small 566 cinemas) are likely to trail.
So that’s what I’m thinking. Time for you to make your predictions below!
More Box Office News:
EW.com’s Box Office Chart
Paul Blart: Mall Cop wins the weekend
Gran Torino drives away with a win
Batman was a blockbuster, but did 2008 bomb?
Marley & Me wins for a second straight week
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I’m feeling “Slumdog” will come out on top. It’s going to have massive per-theater average.
you forgot to take into consideration the dark knight being rereleased this weekend and despite no best picture/director oscar noms it is still an incredibly popular movie. im just saying….
I’m not thinking a “total Oscar shutout” will slow down Gran Torino much. Judging by the packed theater I was in last weekend, people have been loving that movie!
I think that you are underestimating Underworld. Almost everybody I work with is going to see it this weekend. The trailer looks awesome. I think that it will pull in at least $30. And I think Gran Torino will come in second.
No need to see Slumdog Millionaire in the theatres anymore. It comes out on DVD in Feb.
I thought Lycans was going straight to DVD
Spiderwick and Terabithia didn’t come out “around this time.” They came closer to March. And yes, just admit that you didn’t see Paul Blart making a killing. You are just not good at predicting the BO period; every week is the same sh*t.
I’m sure Lycans will win the weekend, being the only high profile release of the week, but it sure won’t be getting any of my money. Those movies are terrible, and now with no Beckinsale? Forget it.
Another update… American readers – you don’t know how lucky you are!
http://thatsew.blogspot.com/
Th Wrestler 23 Million
to echo an earlier sentiment, how can you forget the Dark Knight? There will be a large number of people wanting to see it again, or for the first time, so it should at least be in the top 5, given the inflated iMax ticket prices.
Is it a little weird that Michael Sheen is Kate Beckinsale’s ex and she left him, after having his baby, for director Len Wiseman….? Also, is it even more weird that Michael Sheen is even doing this movie?
1)Underworld: Rise of the Lycans-$29 million
2)Paul Blart: Mall Cop-$18 million
3)Inkheart-$17.5 million
4)Gran Torino-$14 million
5)Slumdog Millionaire-$11 million
To me The Dark Kngiht will probably come in a close 6 to Slumdog thanks to the Academy not nominating it
Well, I’ve already seen RISE OF THE LYCANS once and enjoyed. I actually thought it was better than the UNDERWORLD: EVOLUTION.
I have to agree with Louise – it’s all in the family. As for Michael Sheen, I still think it’s funny that this is the guy who played Tony Blair and David Frost.