In many ways, the British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards ended up being the most prescient pre-Oscar nominations this year, predicting Oscar’s Best Picture nominees 5-for-5 and being the first major group to place Kate Winslet in the lead-actress race for The Reader. So who’ll win when the BAFTAs are handed out this Sunday? Here’s a look at the major categories.
Best Film
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Button and Slumdog, which tied with 11 nominations, are the only real competitors. I can only assume that Slumdog‘s status as a British production will put it over the top. (Given the voters’ sometimes strange habits, Slumdog could very well win Best Film and lose Best British Film to a lesser-known entry like Hunger or Man on Wire.)
Director
Clint Eastwood, Changeling
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
How can a local boy like Boyle go home empty-handed?
Leading Actor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
I really am sensing the momentum going Penn’s way in the overall race. I can’t imagine they’re not feeling it on the other side of the Atlantic too.
Leading Actress
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Kristin Scott Thomas, I’ve Loved You So Long
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
This is the most fascinating category of the night, if you ask me. Yes, Winslet is in danger of vote-splitting. But Doubt‘s poor overall showing (only three nominations) indicates a lack of support for the film. I’d bet on Kate for The Reader.
Supporting Actor
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Brendan Gleeson, In Bruges
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Brad PItt, Burn After Reading
Chalk up another bittersweet win for Ledger.
Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Freida Pinto, Slumdog Millionaire
Tilda Swinton, Burn After Reading
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
With Viola Davis strangely excluded, Cruz has a clear path to victory.
Original Screenplay
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, Burn After Reading
J. Michael Straczynski, Changeling
Philippe Claudel, I’ve Loved You So Long
Martin McDonagh, In Bruges
Dustin Lance Black, Milk
If there’s an upset here, it’s McDonagh. But Milk‘s status as the only Best Film nominee in the category bodes well for Black.
Adapted Screenplay
Eric Roth, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon
David Hare, The Reader
Justin Haythe, Revolutionary Road
Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
It’s nice to see Revolutionary Road included here. But it’ll certainly lose as part of a Slumdog mini sweep.
Don’t be surprised if Freida Pinto wins Supporting Actress as part of the Slumdog sweep. It’s her one and only nomination and there’s no Kate to block the way. I think you’re way too high on Cruz – she ain’t going to win this one OR the Oscar!
I have to agree. Cruz was mediocre in Vicky. I didn’t really care for the movie. Amy Adams all the way! Even though I know that’s not going to happen. <3 her.
I loved Slumdog Millionaire, but this is ridiculous. How could the give Dev Patel a Lead Actor nomination? And over Leonardo DiCaprio in Revolutionary Road! It’s even questionable as to whether Patel has a lead or supporting role in the film.
I would love to see Kate Winslet win for either film in the Lead Actress category (she is really brilliant in both), but I’m worried her votes will be split. You may be right about the lack of support for Doubt hindering a win for Meryl Streep. I wouldn’t count out Kristin Scott-Thomas. She may end up being the surprise win, which would be nice seeing as how she got snubbed by the Oscars.
In the Supporting Actress category, I’m shocked that Amy Adams was nominated over Viola Davis. Nothing against Adams because she was great too, but everyone knows Davis gave a spectacular performance in Doubt. I think this is a toss up between Penelope Cruz and Marisa Tomei.
I saw Milk over the weekend and don’t see how they could give the award to Sean Penn. I would probably give the award to Frank Langella, although I haven’t seen The Wrestler.