Jul 2 2009 10:16 PM ET

Box Office Preview: 'Ice Age 3' and 'Transformers 2' wage holiday weekend war

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Transformers-2_dl Hollywood studios always expect to reap big returns on holiday weekends, and this Fourth of July frame won’t be any different. But with the actual Independence Day holiday falling on a Saturday — a virtual dead day at the movies — the gains won’t be as great as some might prefer. Still, with the review-proof crowd pleasers Ice Age 3 and Transformers 2 squaring off — and the Johnny Depp-Christian Bale period piece Public Enemies looking to carve out a special piece of the pie for grown-up moviegoers — the battle will be pitched as ever.

1. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen — $49 million
In just eight days, Michael Bay’s critic-shunning, robot-fighting juggernaut has grossed $239 million, putting it on track to be the highest grossing film of the summer: It’s guaranteed to surpass both Star Trek and Up over the weekend.

2. Ice Age 3: Dawn of the Dinosaurs$48 million
This weekend will provide yet more proof that children love them some dinosaurs — even if it’s impossible that dinosaurs were ever around during the ice age. Critics haven’t been kind, but with the past two Ice Age films grossing $176 million and $195 million, audiences will come out regardless. (Ticket buyers already plunked down $13.8 million on Wednesday, Ice Age 3‘s opening day.) After all, parents need somewhere to take their kids. Oh, and that little squirrel Scrat and his acorn adventures are pretty cute.

3. Public Enemies$25 million

Johnny Depp as bank robber John Dillinger, on the run from Christian Bale’s FBI agent Melvin Purvis, should be reason enough for any moviegoer to spend 10 bucks at the theater. Add in perfectionist director Michael Mann and ingenue Marion Cotillard and we’ve got ourselves a movie. (The film banked $8.2 million on its opening day.) And if that isn’t encouragement enough, consider this: If Public Enemies fails like so many other adult dramas have recently, the chances of seeing more movies like it will be as good as Dillinger surviving the Biograph Theater takedown.

4. The Hangover$10 million

No one ever thought Bradley Cooper, Ed Helms, and Zach Galifianakis could headline a $200 million grossing movie. And yet, after this weekend, when the $31 million-budgeted, Todd Phillips-directed, R-rated comedy crosses the $200 million mark, that’ll be the case.

5. The Proposal$9 million

This Anne Fletcher-directed comedy has already out-grossed many of Sandra Bullock’s previous films, including The Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood and Miss Congeniality 2. If it maintains its current pace, it’s on track to surpass Two Weeks Notice‘s take of $93 million by next week. Not bad for a movie star who was sworn to abandoning the romantic comedy genre.

More Box Office News:
‘Transformers 2′ earns $201 million its first five days
‘Transformers 2′ grosses record $60.6 mil at the box office on Wednesday
‘The Proposal’ celebrates with $34.1 mil
‘Hangover’ hangs on to the box office lead with $33.4 million
Final numbers give ‘The Hangover’ No. 1 spot over ‘Up’

Comments (21 total) Add your comment
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  • Matt2

    Hey Nicole, great little article,and blubs to go with your predictions. I think the top five will track almost identical to your prognostications but I think Saturday the 4th, will hurt G-rated films Ice Age and Up the most. Alot of outdoor family events, such as cookouts/reunions, block parties, parades, fireworks events will trim their audiences. I’m going with:
    1. Transformers- 54 million
    2. Ice Age #3- 43 million
    3. Public Enemies- 23 million
    4. The Proposal- 10.5 million
    5. The Hangover- 10.4 million

  • Nate

    I’m personally giving the edge to Ice Age, families love, LOVE those films.

  • KOZ

    1)Ice Age 3
    2)Transformers 2
    3)Pubic Enemies
    4)The Hangover
    5)The Proposal

  • Tony

    I hope people go to see Public Enemies for the reason you stated: Adult Dramas are rare enough as it is and brainless action like Transformers are too prevalent (smart action, like Raiders of the Lost Ark, The Dark Knight, Aliens, and Die Hard are few and far between). Of course all the studio heads see $ signs, make more unsatisfying blow-up movies, and in the end, the studios suffer from a lack of movie-going regulars (most guys grow out of silly action and give up on movies for the most part, save for the really hyped flicks). It would be nice if we could another balance like in the mid-to-late 90′s when there seemed to be a good ratio of good action (Jurassic Park, The Fugitive, Speed) and high quality drama (Forrest Gump, Shawshank, Private Ryan, America Beauty, Pulp Fiction).

  • Adam
  • Matt1

    Just saw Public Enemies and man was I disappointed! Shooting digitaly is great for special effects-laden movies and it even worked for Mann in Collateral (great movie by the way!). But for a movie set in the 1930′s, the technology is VERY distracting! Looks like they shot this thing on a HD iphone! Zero character development… my list of complaints goes on and on.
    This isn’t a horrible movie like Twilight by far. But for a film to have all this talent behind it, Big Letdown!

  • Latricia

    Check out this video of Michael Jackson’s daddy pimping his new record company three days after Michael’s death.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=78xcVmqHYK0

  • Corey

    Variety is reporting Transformers is back at number one again for Thursday with 11.5 million and Ice Age was a close number two and Public Enemies was way back in third place grossing about half of what the top two movies did overnight. Based on Ice Age’s drop and Transformers 6% increase-
    1)Tranformers- 60.3m
    2)Ice Age- 47m
    3)Public Enemies- 25m
    4)The Proposal- 10m
    5)The Hangover- 9.6m

  • Stan

    I really enjoyed Public Enemies as did my wife. Johnny Depp was John Dillinger. Marion Cotillard and the FBI agent was a really intense scene. i won;t tell you what happens but this was one of the most edge of teh seat scenes in the movie. Who is that actor? The two of them were great together. At the end of the movie my wife and I were stunned. We knew Dillinger of course would be killed but there was the fat boy. Whoever the actor is he captured all the emotions of a coward. Great job Fat Boy!

  • Ben

    Public Enemies is great!Johnny Depp delivered as always.Didn’t care for Christian Bale. He seemed to have dialed it in. The Fat Boy FBI agent now he made me mad and later made me feel for him. Who is the actor? He was great with Johnny and Marion! Sure did have me on the edge of my seat.Who is he? Did he portray a real person? 5 stars for him and 4 stars for the movie.

  • David

    My wife and I enjoyed Public Enemies very much. There was so much going on in the movie. Johnny Depp, Marion Cotillard and the guy who plays fat boy (FBI agent) were great. Fat Boy raised the tension bar of the film and had my wife and I on the edge of our seat.Whoever the actor is he deserves to be known. Michael Mann who is this actor? Johhny DepP was awesome as John Dillinger.

  • Liz

    I Loved Public Enemies! My Mom and I went. A little slow at first. Before you know it though the movie was intense. Loved Johnny Depp! The scarriest guy in the movie called fat Boy is an actor by the name of Adam Mucci.What he did sure was acting. The end of the movie with Johhny Depp was powerful!

  • Emmett

    Ice Age will pick it up on the weekend. Family flicks always do. So if the two movies are this close on a weekday, kids will push it over the top by Sunday night.

  • Dre

    Public enemies rock!!!
    GO SEE!!!!!!!

  • Hollis

    Public Enimies is the First movie I have seen in the theatre since 2008 because you can enjoy it throughout the hole movie not one scene is bad I think whoever put johhny dept as john dillinger instead of leonard dicaprio is the best

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