Feeling merry? Disney and Robert Zemeckis sure hope so as they prepare to unload the technologically obsessed filmmaker’s vision of Dickens’ classic holiday tale, A Christmas Carol, in over 3,500 theaters (2,000 of which will be 3-D). Carol starring Jim Carrey may be Zemeckis’ most successful debut using his beloved motion-capture technology — which seems to have finally overcome the “hollowed eyes” criticism that befell his earlier attempts like Polar Express and Beowulf. Now it’s really just going to come down to how many people are ready for some Christmas spirit this early in the fall season. (Some of us still haven’t disposed of our jack-o’-lantern remains.) For those who aren’t fully committed to yuletide cheer, two horror movies hit the pipeline this weekend, Richard Kelly’s The Box starring Cameron Diaz and The Fourth Kind with Milla Jovovich. But if you’re still having nightmares from Paranormal Activity, George Clooney is here to save you again, this time in the antiwar satire The Men Who Stare at Goats. Read on for my predictions.
1. A Christmas Carol: $41 million
Zemeckis’ last two motion-capture features, Beowulf and The Polar Express, opened to $27 million and $23 million. And while Beowulf was a retelling of a classic story it didn’t have the star power of a Jim Carrey behind it or the broad audience reach of Carol. Look to this holiday film to outgross Zemeckis’ previous efforts and stay in theaters for a good long time.
2. This is It: $11 million
In North America, the Michael Jackson biopic may not have made the crazy amount of money that was predicted but it has performed pretty well. More importantly, it’s a movie people really like, which defends Sony’s decision to extend its theatrical run through Thanksgiving. My guess is it drops less than 50% this frame and will eventually get to $200 million worldwide.
3. Paranormal Activity: $10 million
It’s made $87 million already and there is really no reason why it can’t get to $100 million. This weekend should bring it closer. Despite competition from The Box and The Fourth Kind, Paranormal is the one with all the buzz so it’s likely more moviegoers will check it out. Expect a 40% drop this weekend.
4. The Men Who Stare at Goats: $9 million
Clooney and comedy don’t always mix. His Ocean’s movies are outsized successes but films like Leatherheads and Welcome to Collinwood fall into the disaster column. Where will The Men Who Stare at Goats wind up? Likely somewhere in the middle. EW’s critic may have hated the film but others haven’t been as cruel. Whether it crosses the $10 million mark is the real question here. My guess is it won’t but I would love to be proved wrong.
5. The Box/The Fourth Kind: $8 million
Neither of these newcomers seems to be resonating with audiences. The star power of Cameron Diaz has not incited more moviegoers to head to her flick, and The Fourth Kind seems derivative of Paranormal. My guess is these two films will be duking it out for the fifth slot. Cameron Diaz may have to rethink her future movie choices. Between The Box and this summer’s weepie My Sister’s Keeper it has been a dry run at the box office. It’s likely that her role in The Green Hornet and her current project Knight and Day opposite Tom Cruise will turn things around.
Also in theaters: Precious bows in limited release. While the subject matter is tough the film is worth checking out. I’m no critic but the performances are brilliant.
Photo Credit: John Bramley
I really hope Zemeckis decides to make a movie with real people again before he dies.
Yay – 2 hours of a CGI-enhanced Jim Carrey mugging for the audience as opposed to 2 hours of a real-life Jim Carrey mugging for the audience. Kinda like being asked if you’d rather be shot or stabbed.
Agreed. I’m put off by the trailers.
Carrey has done one great movie: Truman Show.
Truman Show could have been great if: a) it had a real actor in the lead, and b) if there weren’t so many plot holes.
He was great in Eternal Sunshine.
I really cant wait for this movie and I love Jim Carrey!!
Leatherheads made $40 million. Not a hit, but hardly a disaster considering the critical indifference and odd release date. It had a $60 million dollar budget, so I’m guessing it recouped its investment once its DVD release was factored in. Nicole, fudging facts to try and prove a point is a huge journalistic no-no, especially when you completely disregard his comedy hits “O Brother, Where Art Thou,” “Burn After Reading” and “Batman & Robin.”
I don’t think the comparison is totally unfair. “O Brother” was critically acclaimed while it seems “Goats” is not. “Burn After Reading” was more a Coen brothers movie than a Clooney pic, and they were hot off “No Country For Old Men”. And “Batman and Robin” was an unintentional comedy
I think if the gross for “Goats” comes in between “Leatherheads” and “Burn”, the studio would consider it a success.
“No COuntry for Old Men” was released after “O Brother”.
Wrong. No Country was in the fall of 2007. Burn was fall of 08.
I just reread that. But now I’m not sure what your point is. No correlation was made between the releases of No Country and O Brother.
$60 mil was the budget for Leatherheads BEFORE the promotional budget was factored in. Only a studio accountant could find a way to prove that flick actually made money.
When you’re citing “Batman & Robin” as an argument for ANYTHING you’re really grasping at straws. You should’ve picked “Michael Clayton” as a Clooney star vehicle that was actually successful (more critically than commercially, but still).
I really like most of Clooney’s films, but I’ll be the first to admit he is NOT a huge box-office draw. And I can’t see a movie of his with so-so reviews (including an F from EW) becoming a breakout hit.
I disagree, Clooney is a box office draw. The thing I admire about him is that he does crowd pleasers like the Ocean movies, but also uses his star power for more off the wall fare. I like the fact that he takes risks, some pay off financially, some don’t, but I appreciate the effort to produce interesting work. I can’t defend Batman And Robin, but I can say it wasn’t bad because of him, in fact, before Christian Bale, he was the best Batman. But unfortunately, he also had the misfortune of being in the worst Batman movie.
Martillo, I agree that Clooney is a box office draw in his more commercial fare. I also like that he does a variety of films and stretches himself and the audience’s expectations. I will try to see “Men Who Stare at Goats” this weekend. The bloated “Batman and Robin” is purely the fault of Joel Shumacher (which I know I spelled wrong), who is a terrible director.
Guys, the “Batman & Robin” line was a joker.
And whether or not the film broke even once DVD sales were factored in (and I believe it spent four weeks in the top ten, but don’t quote me on that), $40 million is still only a “disaster” when the budget is over a hundred million.
And I wasn’t disagreeing with Nicole’s analysis, I was disagreeing with the shady way she went about proving her point.
Anything with Jim Carrey is an automatic must for me, sort of takes away a lot of his talents not seeing him though!!
While I personally swore off all iterations of the grossly overdone “Christmas Carol” (yawn! yawn!), I suppose kids who haven’t seen it done to death may want to go, though I think it’s early in the season to release this movie, so I don’t think it will gross more than $30 million max. 2 & 3 may be right, but I have seen more people interested in “Box” than either “4th Kind” or “Goats” (whose name is ridiculous), so I’ll bet it will be #4 “Box,” #5 “4th Kind” and then “Goats” will be another misfire for Clooney.
I will avoid this desecration of “A Christmas Carol”. I don’t need slapstick added to my Dickens classics. In fact, I think I need to hunt down the DVD of the Alastair Sim version, or possibly the George C. Scott one.
My favorite version is the Muppet Christmas Carol. There’s some touching moments in there.
Yeah, I love when he breaks down during his duet with Isabelle.
Wrong wrong wrong and wrong! Clooney is not a box office draw. He couldnt even save Batman franchise come on. The dude is just an actor and not a box office drawer. Whoever think he can do this must be on crack. What movie has that nerd been in that makes over 100 Million in the US…i cant think of one…but i am sure one did but its probably because of the special effects..and Perfect Storm was not his movie ..it was an all start cast.
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I have to agree – George Clooney’s NOT a box office draw. He’s an actor, and movies that have made over $100 million, he’s not the main draw (Oceans and The Perfect Storm). It’s like saying Kristen Stewart and Robert Pattison are box office draws because of Twilight.
Nicole Sperling clearly doesn’t like using commas.
???
8 million for the box? hmm… i’ve heard quite a bit of buzz for that movie in my neck of the woods. i suppose A Christmas Carol could effect its numbers, though
I think (and hope) you’re grossly overestimating the box office of A Christmas Carol. I can’t get over how bad that movie looks every time I see a trailer for it. Why is Scrooge endlessly screaming, mugging, flying through the air, or skiing on icicles in every single commercial?!
People seem to forget that Cameron Diaz does not have real star power. Her only hits are movies where she is just one of many or co-starring with a huge star or two or is a cartoon’s voice. Movies that she headlines in always tank. She is pretty much a latter-day Demi Moore.
I’ll be watching “Mickey’s Christmas Carol” instead of this crap.
I work at a movie theatre and I can say “carol” might not make it to number one. In our theatre it did poorly, 4th kind on the other hand sold out most shows
I saw both movies back to back and though I really hate Zemeckis obsession with CGI cuz it sucks, THIS TIME it actually makes for a fun time and Jim Carrey is excellent as Scrooge.
I really don’t understand the hate for The Box. The movie is really, REALLY creepy and very good. It twist and turns many genres into one and it keeps you interested and guessing through the end. Cameron Diaz and Co did an excellent job acting in it. I highly recommend giving it a chance.