This is the weekend we’ve all been waiting for. Avatar finally hits theaters and the results are sure to be spectacular. Tracking indicates the James Cameron extravaganza is playing like a sequel, rather than as a brand new piece of filmmaking based on nothing other than what rolls around inside Cameron’s brain. With early reviews overwhelmingly positive, the film’s audience is likely to be much broader than initially expected. Going up against this massive endeavor is Sony Pictures’ Did You Hear About the Morgans starring Sarah Jessica Parker and Hugh Grant. The cynical “counter-programming” option for women doesn’t seem to be working, as tracking suggests not even the prime demographic is interested in seeing this rom com. Read on for my predictions.
1. Avatar: $87 million
So Fox is trying to keep expectations in check with this film but I’m not buying the modest predictions. I think the incredible word-of-mouth coupled with the must-see factor will propel this movie into the upper echelons of weekend grosses. (This is not a movie you wait to see when the DVD comes out.) It also helps that Avatar will be on over 2300 locations in 3-D, including 180 IMAX theaters. That uptick in sales price is also going to buoy this film. Movie ticketing site Fandango is reporting that the movie is outselling Star Trek’s ticket sales, which is impressive considering the J.J. Abrams film (also starring Zoe Saldana) debuted back in May to $75 million. (For more on Avatar pre-sales, click here.)
2. The Princess and the Frog: $18 million
Relief is finally here for Disney’s animated romp that began its theatrical run with a rather soft opening frame last weekend. Moms — and kids — are finally free and nothing says “holiday cheer” like lots of trips to the movies. Audiences have loved Disney’s twist on the princess who kisses the frog, an A from exit pollster Cinemascore. This frame should see the 2-D animated film finally earn the cash it deserves. Expect a very small drop this weekend, which is needed because Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel, which opens Christmas Day, is nipping at its heels.
3. The Blind Side: $10 million
This movie can do no wrong. In its fourth week, the film dropped a scant 25%, putting its total gross at $150 million. I don’t think it will hold on that strong again this frame but I do expect not much more than a 30% fall.
4. Did You Hear About the Morgans?: $8 million
What happened to Hugh Grant? The guy who used to be able to do no wrong hasn’t had a real hit since 2002 when he scored twice with About a Boy and Two Weeks Notice. Since then audiences seemed to have tire of his movie choices — and Morgans doesn’t look like it will be the big hit to resurrect his career. A lot of critics haven’t screened Morgans yet (never a good sign) and those who have seen it aren’t raving. It would be a huge surprise if it reached $10 million.
5. Invictus: $5 million
Solid reviews and a bit more moviegoing time should help Clint Eastwood’s latest film gain some traction its second weekend in theaters. Matt Damon and Morgan Freeman have both received high marks. Perhaps the film will drop somewhere in the 40% range.
In limited release The Weinstein Co. opens the Daniel Day-Lewis starring musical Nine, Fox Searchlight opens the Jeff Bridges-starrer Crazy Heart, and Emily Blunt’s turn as Queen Victoria in Young Victoria will bow in 44 theaters.
Photo Credit: WETA
Wow, $87 is more than I expected for opening weekend! But you haven’t been wrong lately.
I think they’re overestimating this one though. I think won’t make more than 60 mil.
go back to remedial math, celia. it’s 87 or bust.
I just got back from watching this movie in Imax. The audience applauded when the credits rolled. The sitting next to me, whom I’d never seen before in my life turned to me and said, “That’s the best movie I’ve seen in a long time.” This is going to be a ginormous hit.
I just saw AVATAR in 3D and it was AMAZING!!!!!! I hope the word gets out about this movie. I’m thinking more like $100 million!! It deserves it. BEAUTIFUL. EXCITING. Kind of like a Dances With Wolves on the planet called Pandora. Fabulous.
I think Avatar will have a huge opening weekend but I’m going to pass on it.It just doesn’t interest me at all.I don’t know if it’s the creepy blue guys or what.I’d rather stay home and watch the Iron Man 2 trailer over and over.Go Shellhead,can’t wait.
Good move, just saw and its not that good. Wait for the DVD. The visuals are good, but the story was on transformers level.
The previews made me not want to see it – idiotic dialogue.
I loved AVATAR. LOVED it. I’m definitely going to buy the DVD but I think you’ve got to see it in 3D in a movie theater to really appreciate the spectacle. That’s what I’m telling my friends–to see the 3D. I’m going to see it again for sure. Full of heart and action and a couple of Cameron classic images from The Abyss and Aliens which was fun to see.
yeah right… JT.. LOL
well 85% of critics and 99% of public disagree with you! LOL
just chect Twitter.. buzz is enormous… everybody who seen it going raving about it!
and what is most incredible People saying.. YOU MUST SEE THIS IN 3D!!!!
seems like James Cameron delivered his promise of bringing back people to the cinema!
Seems reasonable to me. Honestly a film like this is probably incredibly difficult to forecast, just because it IS something new (can’t base it on franchise precedent) and untested.
Whatever it makes this opening weekend, either more or less than $87 million, it looks like it’s going to have pretty strong legs. For one thing, there’s probably a broad swath of “cautious” types who’ll wait for critics’ reviews and word of mouth from friends before going in. I expect this weekend to cater mainly to the taste-makers, and for other people to trickle in gradually. The audience should grow over time. If it gets a Best Picture nomination, that’s an added boost, and if it really is THAT good, expect lots of repeat business.
I think the fact that it’s playing mostly to the IMAX/3D crowd is also a good sign. I haven’t seen many other people mention this, but the “You HAVE to see it in IMAX 3D” buzz could mean a lot of extra money, given how much more expensive those tickets are. This is probably the first film where the IMAX experience is integral, not just an afterthought.
And yes, I’m also glad to see that it’s getting a broader range of interest groups and not just the “geeks” everyone seems so eager to make fun of.
AVATAR is slowly but surely going to eclipse every big blockbuster of this year.People who have seen this movie are going absolute bonkers for this movie.I am not at all exagarating.Few friends of mine got to see the movie at a premiere in India, and their reaction was unbelievable.One of them told me that its a crime to give away such a glorious cinematic experience at such a low price.I am not at all kidding. The movie generated a lot of negative buzz after the trailers came out.To actually wade through all that negative buzz and still manage to get nearly 85% approval rating in rotten tomatoes speaks volumes about the movie. This is gonna be the biggest blockbuster of this year if not decade
“it’s a crime to give away such a glorious cinematic experience at such a low price” Are you kidding me? That’s one of the dumbest statements I’ve ever heard.Wow.
Its not my statement.However dumb it might seem it just tells you that he was overwhelmed by the movie
I’m actually planning on seeing it even though I’m not excited about it. But I haven’t seen a BIG film with tons of visual effects since Half Blood Prince back in July unless you count The Princess and the Frog.
So I’m kind of looking forward to this one.
Hugh Grant had a hit “About A Boy.” Are you kidding?!
I have no interest in Avatar what so ever…maybe if the previews were better. I usually like the stuff James C. does but this looks like a Sci Fi lover’s wet dream. No thanks I will pass.
The Hollywood INSIDER? What a joke. It really takes “inside info” to figure out that the overhyped and overly juvenile and preachy film, Avatar, will be a huge hit.
If trash like Transformers makes $350 million, this is a guaranteed hit.
Typical overanalysis by a washed up and obsolete bunch of idiots at EW.
And I’ll present the question everyone has in their head: if you have so much contempt for EW’s analysts, why are you posting here, you pedantic dick?
How sad that you have to showcase your massive superiority complex to something as harmless as box office predictions. Grow up.
Snap.
Don’t forget that “New Moon” was initially only predicted to open in the $80-$85 million range, and it blew those expectations away. Honestly, I expect an opening over $100 million for “Avatar” this weekend, and because of its wider demographic I expect it to have much better staying power than “New Moon”. It should challenge “Transformers” as the top grossing film to come out in 2009.
I actually agree with you, with all the hype its been getting, and compared to a lot of other movies, I think it should destroy the competition. I put it above 85 million perhaps going over the 100 million mark……if Twilight New Moon can get 72 mill on a friday, avatar can do a lot more than 85 million for the weekend
I assume you mean top-grossing film **in the U.S.** to come out in 2009? Transformers 2 was #1 in the U.S. but #3 (by a fairly wide margin) worldwide.
The weekend will be surprising.
EW is getting ridiculous – Hugh Grant enjoyed a modest hit with Music and Lyrics in 2007. In Fact, Lyrics made more money than About A Boy (50.6 mil versus 41.3 mil) and let’s not forget Love Actually of 2003 which pulled in 59.6 mil… SO WHY MENTION ABOUT A BOY AS A HIT??? Oh yeah, it has the same director as Twilight. HOW FRIGGIN’ RIDICULOUS.
I find EW’s love affair with Twilight as annoying as the next person (no mention AT ALL in this week’s BO preview, score!), but I think Sperling mentioned About a Boy and Two Weeks Notice over Love Actually because Love Actually was more of an ensemble film, whereas Grant more or less carried (or co-carried) the other two. Why she didn’t mention Music and Lyrics, I don’t know, but I don’t think it was intended as a Chris Weitz plug.
Dude don’t underestimate EW’s love affair with Twilight for a second — the mention of About a Boy (which is actually a very good movie) was on some subliminal plug for Chris Weitz, director of New Moon. The depth of EWs love affair with those stupid vampire movies has no limits, it has gotten to the point where they have actually become a paradoy of themselves. (they actually wrote a series of article, not just one, on the fact that Miley Cyrus hasn’t seen the Twilight movies . . . yes, really) . . .either the person in charge of EW has a school girl crush on Robert Pattison (is that his name) or they have stock in the film series. But what do I know . . . their near obsession with those movies generated a $150 million opening weekend for New Moon, which is honestly and truly one of the worse movies I have seen in years — its two hours of bad special effects and Kristen Stewart acting depressed, pursing her lips, and looking longingly at the window/horizon, ocecan . . . I can’t believe people have fallen head over heals for this garbage . . . please debate me if you think I’m wrong.
Okay this is getting ridiculous. And I’m not referring to EW’s Twilight fixation, but the posters growing so disgruntled that they have to prove every bit of Twilight bias in every single article, even ones that clearly have nothing to do with the franchise. I didn’t even realize the director of Twilight worked on About A Boy until you and RyRyNyc brought the fact up. As ridiculous as EW’s coverage of Twilight, I find it even sadder that to ‘prove’ how bad the magazine has gotten, they have to uncover every instant of coverage, no matter how subtle or even unintentional it may have been. If you really hate EW that much, how about you just stop reading and save yourself the headache?
I miss the days of EW.com when only subscribers could use the website, and we had fun discussions. Now, it’s full of people with bitterness towards the mag and the writers working in it.
I couldn’t agree with you more. I had no idea Chris Weitz even directed New Moon or any of the other movies mentioned until they brought it up. It had become annoying how people will claim they hate something just because it is the trendy thing to do. If you hate Twilight so much, guess what? you don’t have to see it. And as far as EWs coverage of it, they have a job to do and that job is selling magazines. They are going to put on the cover whatever at that particular moment in time is going to sell the most magazines. Get over yourselvesl
Wow. This is all starting to sound like Idol fandom.
What is this, Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon? Are mentions of Die Hard really because of EW’s Twilight “fixation” because Alan Rickman was in Die Hard who was in Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire which Robert Pattison had a bit part in who stared in Twilight who ate the cheese that was dropped by the girl who lived in the house that Jack built?
I don’t debate, I state and you’re wrong. Get a life.
I know this is anecdotal, but I just came back from a sold-out 11 a.m. IMAX 3D show. And I bet at least half the people in there were older than 30, and many were in their 40s and 50s. A lot of families, a lot of dates and a lot of women in groups or even by themselves. Let me reiterate: $15 IMAX 3D tickets sold out to an older-skewed, both-genders crowed on a Friday.
So much for the “geeks only” theory, eh?
I have a feeling Avatar won’t make the numbers everyone is expecting.
I wonder if Clint Eastwood will rail against Avatar the way he did against LOTR for relying on special FX?