When the Academy announced back in June that it’s including 10 Best Picture nominees this year, one of the things I thought about was whether, once the nominees were announced, it would be obvious which five films would have been nominated in a typical year and which five were the “extra” nominees. Well, now that I’ve worked up my Oscar-nomination predictions (which will appear in this week’s issue of EW as well as on this blog tomorrow morning), I’m thinking the answer to that question is a resounding yes. If there were only five Best Picture slots, wouldn’t they go to Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, and Up in the Air? Those five seem way ahead of the competition at the moment, while there are probably nine or so films (District 9, An Education, Invictus, It’s Complicated, The Messenger, Nine, A Serious Man, Star Trek, and Up) that are jockeying for the other five slots but would have had a hard time bumping out any of my “top five.”
What do you think? Am I overestimating or underestimating any of these contenders? Which five films would you predict if the Academy were using last year’s rules? And isn’t it a bit ironic, given that the super-size race was meant to include more audience-friendly films in the mix, that Avatar would easily be nominated even with half the slots?
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Image credit: François Duhamel
Star Trek was the best movie I saw all year!
You only saw one movie?
Hahahahaha. Wow. While I did not see this movie, I find it hard to believe it would make any Top Ten lists this year.
Uh, it has a 94% on rotten tomatoes and did incredibly well in theaters. Why would it not be in a top 10 list?
Because the academy has Genre bias and Avatar already has the spot for the voters who are willing to vote for that type of movie. Even with ten, it will be difficult for 2 sci-fi movies make it and there is also District 9 for star trek to compete with.
Haven’t seen Avatar yet. But for a popcorn film, Star Trek is remarkably strong. But my judgement may be off…….Transformers, Potter, New Moon, and GIJoe were all soooo bad, it may have made Star Trek look like Casino Royale.
though its not my fav(hp6) its was one of the best and i think quite possibly better than avatar(talk about overrated, just cuz the cgi is great doesn’t deserve an oscar).
What? An outstandingly well-written and directed action/sci-fi movie gets dumped on simply because it’s Star Trek? That’s the OLD Trek you’re thinking of.
The critics want Avatar to win, IMO District 9 and Star Trek were much better stories. I agree Star Trek had it all-cast, crew music and attention to detail.
I agree with ks. I saw all three of those and Star Trek was my favorite too. I also thought District 9 and Avator sort of had similar stories in terms of treatment of non-human creatures and District 9 did it better. Just my opinion
I think David Karger’s list is way off. Avatar would not be nominated in a normal year, and I don’t even think it will be nominated this year. The Avatar backlash is coming, and by the time the Academy produces a its shortlist, the initial enthusiasm for Avatar will have been completely drained. It’s not a great movie by any stretch of the imagination.
As for Star Trek, you could drive a truck through the plot holes in that movie.
Both movies were fun, but I am sceptical that the academy is going to give either one a Best Picture nomination. Karger’s list is all mainstream films. There are a lot of indies out there that could, and probably will, sneak onto the ballots.
Wasn’t “Star Trek” a 2008 release?
May of 2009
Time travel means it might be released inthe future
I somewhat agree. I just saw Precious today and that movie was very powerful but Star Trek was the only movie I saw this year and thought “I have to see that again!”.
And I actually saw it in a $2 theater b/c my dad wanted to.
Why are you all comparing Star Trek to any descent movie ever? Why? Just Why?
This is about predictions, not opinions, so I disagree with Dave Kragar. I see strong parallels between Inglorious Basterds/Avatar this year and Dark Knight/Wall-E last year. If one had made it into a standard top five I would have been relieved. The other definitely would have gotten bumped for Invictus (aka the Frost/Nixon vote.)
That’s a reasonable Top 5. I think Invictus would be the only other potential nom.
Invictus and/or An Education. An Education is a very solid movie and I was engrossed throughout the movie.
Agreed on Invictus. NEVER underestimate the Academy’s love for Eastwood OR biopics involving the world’s movers and shakers.
Inglorious Basterds also came out back in the summer, and the Academy doesn’t usually have a memory for anything that came out before Thanksgiving. Invictus would have bumped it for sure. It would have been interesting to see if Avatar could have fended off An Education.
I just watched An Education and I thought it was terrific, especially Carrie Mulligan. I could definitely see it getting nominated in the 10 race, but maybe not the 5. I give the 5 race to Up in the Air, Precious (which will end up winning, mark my words), The Hurt Locker, Invictus, and Nine, not that I personally would rank them that way. I would throw out Nine and Invictus and toss in Up and Star Trek, just to make things interesting. They were, in my humble opinion, some of the best cinema I saw all year, and shouldn’t that be the criteria this award is based on?
Never underestimate Eastwood, but I think the British/European members might have propelled An Education (already a SAG Ensemble nominee) to the top 5. Avatar has such huge hype, but given the mixed response to its story, I still wouldn’t have been surprised to see it miss the top 5 given The Dark Knight snub last year. There’s only one Titanic or Lord of the Rings franchise. I think Up in the Air, Hurt Locker, Inglourious, and Precious have all done too well with the precursors to miss the top 5. The latter 3 have both Golden Globe and SAG nominations, while Up in the Air may have the screenplay of the year and broad-based support (the SAG Ensemble omission might be a fluke).
I’m happy to see “Inglourious Basterds” appears to be a shoo-in for a Best Picture nod. I figured Christopher Waltz would get a nod along with a few technical nominations, but I’m happy to see the flick at the big boys’ table.
As for your question, I agree that if there were five nominees, they would PROBABLY be the five you mentioned, but I wouldn’t put it past the Academy to sub in “Invictus” for “Precious.” “Precious” appears to be losing momentum and the Academy LOVE themselves some Eastwood!
Seems like Waltz is a shoo-in for Supp Actor (which is rightly deserved)… Im hoping Sally Menke gets a nomination for Editing- since she’s one of the best editors in the business right now (Thelma Schoonmaker & Michael Kahn being THE BEST)
I’ll take it further and say Waltz is really the only sure fire winner this season. It is the Best Supporting Actress Cat. where there is fire. Diane Kruger, Anna Kendrick, Monique, all the women from 9….how to choose? I’ll be comfortable if Avatar gets nominated in Best Picture, as long as it isn’t nominated for writing. Although, it is some mean feat to combine The Matrix, Lord of the Rings, and Disney’s Pocahontas (with hint of Cone Head lovemaking) into one expensive movie, so Cameron gets an Oscar for the biggest kahones. District 9 and UP are musts for Best Picture. Bigelow vs Tarantino in Direction.
all the women from 9? the only one with a chance is Penelope Cruz and thats a big IF… I still dont see how Diane Kruger has a shot? she was barely in 2 scenes and granted, they were great but I just dont see her pulling another Beatrice Straight… I think its gonna be in the end, Mo’Nique, Julianne Moore, Vera Farmiga, Anna Kendrick and (fingers crossed) Melanie Laurent
I heard Laurent was campaigned as a lead actress for the SAGs. Any word on whether this is the plan for the Oscars?
Though she does carry a portion of the movie (and, by the way, she’s FANTASTIC!) I think this would be a mistake. I usually think it’s a major copout when a lead actress gets stuck in the Supporting Category despite being a lead JUST so she’ll have a better shot at the gold (hi Jennifer Hudson!), but in this case I support such a move. (Especially since Laurent is “Supporting” in my opinion.)
When the announcement first came out that there would be ten Best Picture nominees, I thought, Why bother? Everyone would still know which few films were really contending for the prize. But to my surprise, I’m actually starting to like the idea because some of these movies, particularly “Up”, deserve a spot. I’m not sure that Avatar would necessarily get a nomination if not for the ten spots because the story doesn’t seem as deep or thought-out as some of the others.
wow..Avatar not deep or well thought out? I get complaining that the script is so-so. But not “thought out”? There are a lot of people throwing opinions around about Avatar that clearly haven’t watched it.
Saw it. It’s not deep (unless “taking land away from innocent people and killing them is bad” is radically deep, when you’d hope for most people it would be blaringly obvious) and nobody had thought much about the basic plot back when it was “Dances With Wolves.” The CGI guys thought a lot about what they were doing. Those who worked on the script: Not so much.
I agree with your pics Dave. I would hope that “Up” would be in the top 5, but with Avatar’s impressive financial numbers, I think that one takes the Pixar features place. Still, I plan to see “Up” in the top ten. Still, the second best movie of the year? “Where the Wild Things Are”.
I wasn’t so thrilled about Wild Things. I cherished the book when I was younger. The movie was somewhat tedious and too long. Also, it irks me that the mother was unrealistically sympathetic to her child, even though he bit her and ran away for the night. And she gives him cake when he gets back! I guess we are supposed to believe she saw the movie right along with us, and understood his inner turmoil… that explains why she was so sleepy at the end…
I loved Wild Things but everyone around me didn’t. I thought it was amazing.
It’s Complicated will not be nominated for Best Picture and I don’t think District 9 or Nine or even Avatar will be either. Where is (500) Days of Summer, though?
I agree, I would love to see (500) days of summer nominated; great film
Avatar will be. The critics are going crazy over that movie. I haven’t seen it yet but i guess its good.
It is. It really is. And I was a naysayer, especially after the disappointing trailers.
Basterds, Up, District 9, Hurt Locker, Precious, Up in the Air would be the FIVE.
Oooops, for 5, I’d drop District from above – not MY choice but the Academy’s, i feel.
You may want to drop Up too because if Wall-E didn’t make it, there is no way Up would have been part of five this time.
You sure about Up? Maybe PIXAR is the Crowe or Denzel of the year? “Oops, we should given it to ya last year so, um, here.”
I don’t think Avatar belongs on this list; of 10 or 5. Much like Titanic, James Cameron is recycling an old and tired tale and giving it a new, glossy coat of paint. On a short list, I would replace it with District 9. Better Sci-Fi story, better storytelling, better special effects and the whole package was more gripping and engaging. Up in the Air still seems, to me, to have the true Best Picture pedigree.
Better special effects…LMAO. District 9 is a load of crap.
I “tried” to watch “District 9″ last night. One of the worst movies I ever “saw.”
Uhm, better special effects?
Hardly. I do agree, however that District 9 is definitely a better movie than Avatar. (And I REALLY liked Avatar)… District 9 was a new kind of look at racism, etc. and Avatar, while being one of the better movies of the year, was sadly a very recycled movie. Hell, I even felt like I was watching the Star Trek movie for the first hour or so: person pulled into a space mission in the place of a family member, person gets lost on an alien planet, person gets attacked by gigantic monster, which then gets attacked by an even bigger monster, etc…
Ok, so I’m getting off track, so I’ll stop, but I hope I made my point. lol
“James Cameron is recycling an old and tired tale”
Every film on the top five is recycling not only ideas and plot points, but motifs and even whole films. UP IN THE AIR, PRECIOUS, THE HURT LOCKER, STAR TREK, INVICTUS, everything takes elements from other films. But with AVATAR having such amazing commercial success, in addition to fantastic reviews, people have GOT TO point out something to downplay its triumph, conveniently forgetting that being derivative isn’t a sin and that all films do it.
Preach it Telly!!
The mean guy is back on the boards.
Yeah, but what’s worse is that Cameron is recycling material he himself has kind of done.
Evil corporation in outer space not caring about anything except the one thing they want. Evil corporate figure head. Sigourney Weaver.
I mean, Avatar was beautiful and all, and it even told the story in an enjoyable albeit HUGELY predictable way. But it does not deserve any sort of recognition as a great film in my opinion.
Sigourney Weaver is recycled material? While I also felt the story in Avatar was more rehash and less original, I think you’re going a little far by putting Weaver in the bin with your empty plastic bottles and cartons.
I think your five choices are right on. Are they all my favorites from this year? No, but they do seem to be the front-runners.
500 days of summer….why won’t people give it credit?
Because it’s crap?
If by crap you mean a refreshingly original movie, one of my favorites all year then yes it was total crap.
Ha ha ha ha……
“refreshingly original movie”? I think you mean the modern quirky indie remake of Annie Hall.
probably because it’s considered a “romantic comedy” and the Oscars don’t normally honor them. it should be nominated though..it was a great movie!!
Because it was slight and sort of dull.
No way It’s Complicated is even being considered. Even with 20 slots it wouldn’t get in there.
I agree. Remember you need a passionate minority of voters to put the film one or near the top of the list to make the cut. It’s Complicated doesn’t seem likely on that count. Whereas “left field” options like “A Single Man”, “Where the Wild Things Are”, or “500 Days of Summer” which seem to have pockets of passionate support may have a better chance to make the list of 10.
Yeah. Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin are hosting the Oscars, and that’ll probably be enough of an honor for that film in the Academy’s eyes.
1. Avatar
2. District 9
3. Hurt Locker
4. Basterds
5. 500 Days of Summer
I just rewatched (500) Days of Summer and was reminded of how awesome it is. I am hoping it sneaks into the final Best Picture lineup… and don’t think it’d be a shocker if it did. (Fingers crossed for Joseph & Zooey too).
D-9 was so bad. I don’t understand the appeal at all. The whole film made no sense.
I would have to agree with your top five, but I think District 9 deserves it much more than Avatar. D9 was incredibly original, and filmed in such a way that made it’s story eerily realistic. Avatar, on the other hand, while visually stunning, lacked a fresh perspective, and ultimately (for me) any real connection to the Na’vi people. I had more of a connection to the “Prawns” and they didn’t have human-like features to help them.
I’m with everyone on thinking District 9 deserves a nomination, but “deserving” one has never really been an Academy criteria. I don’t think it’s going to make the top 10. I definitely don’t think it would have made a top 5.
But if it and/or Star Trek get in, I’ll be thrilled–and I’m not even a sci-fi fan!
Avatar is more than a movie. It is an experience. It may not deserve a Screenplay nod, it certainly is the Best Film of 2009.
It’s a toss up for me between Avatar and D9. They were both amazing and clearly the best films of 2009.
If by original you mean borrowing heavily from Alien Nation (Ghost written by James Cameron btw) and moving the location of the story to South Africa. I liked it, but it’s not Best Picture quality. Maybe Sharlto Copely for Actor and Special FX.
i still don’t know about avatar…
Me either.
I would love to see UP get nominated, pixar continues to do amazing work and they deserved to get nominated, wall-e is one of the best movies ever.
I was just about to say the same thing, UP! is my favorite movie of the year
Yes, WALL-E is one of the best movies of the decade and, therefore, ever. Having said that, Up is way too kid-friendly, and I’ll be upset if it gets honors WALL-E didn’t.
Yeah, I hate it when a KID’S MOVIE is “too kid-friendly.” Seriously, I love Pixar, just like tons of adults, but we are not their primary market and never have been.