For the last few weeks I’ve been hearing from Oscar voters that Avatar is the surest bet for a Best Picture win in March. As I’ve written here before, many Academy members are saying, even though the ballots haven’t been submitted, that the race is all but over. I’m curious as to how much this weekend’s big-ticket award ceremonies will catch the rest of the world up to this line of thinking. With all the critics-award events this past week, the talk was certainly focused on Up in the Air and The Hurt Locker, which have obliterated Avatar with 11 wins each compared to only one for Avatar. but today’s Broadcast Film Critics Association ceremony and Sunday’s Golden Globe awards should change the conversation. The question is: How much? The answer, I believe, will lie in four races: the BFCA’s Best Picture and Best Director, and the Globes’ Best Drama and Best Director. Avatar will without a doubt win one or two of those four at least. But what if it sweeps all four? I predicted Up in the Air as the Globe Best Drama winner, but increasingly I’m thinking I’m wrong.
Follow me on Twitter (@davekarger) for updates on Avatar and all the big awards contenders all weekend long.
Image credit: Eric Charbonneau/Le Studio/WireImage
I finally saw The Hurt Locker on dvd, & I liked it alot, but I don’t quite get all the hype about it. I was a good movie, & Jeremy Renner was great in it (& I wouldn’t be surprised if he won some awards), but best picture this year? Eh. Maybe it just didn’t translate as well on dvd as it did on the big screen.
The Hurt Locker is by far the best film of the year. I don’t think there has ever been a war film that has had a better psychological understanding of the modern soldier. As the quote at the beginning of the film says, war is an addiction. Bigelow stays true to this statement throughout the film (and stays true to an important theme in her body of work–that is, addiction). Even if the Academy decides to award Avatar the Best Picture award, they cannot truly justify giving anyone but Bigelow the Best Director award. This film is a masterpiece.
It’s on my Netflix list! Can’t wait to see it.
Ditto.
Agreed, I’ve seen Up in the Air, The Hurt Locker, and Avatar, and while I loved all of them, I’d have to say as far as oscars go: The Hurt Locker>Up in the Air>Avatar. Avatar had the best CG, music, etc, but the Hurt locker had the best director (though Cameron gets extra points for creating Pandora and the 3D tech)and should win best picture, and Up in the Air had the most relatable/touching story, and Clooney might get best actor.
The Hurt Locker was very good, but it wasn’t a film. It was like a book which just so happened to be acted out by some very good actors. Avatar was a film. It couldn’t be concieved any other way, which is alright because it is spectacular.
I know what you mean, Leslie. I saw The Hurt Locker yesterday on cable…… well, truthfully, I saw most of it, I covered my eyes a lot. I think it’s an important film like Apocalypse Now is an important film. I feel with The Hurt Locker I now have a very good sense of the insanity of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, just as Apocalypse Now outlined the insanity of the Vietnam War. Both films are excellent. But after seeing The Hurt Locker, my vote for Best Picture would be AVATAR. Of all the wonderful films this year, AVATAR is amazing, ground breaking, beautiful and magnificent. It’s wiped my memory of all the other films this year, including Harry Potter, which I loved.
If AVATAR wins best pic, thats a shame. District 9 deserves it more in terms of dialogue, originality and actually moving me. Plus Distric 9 didnt take the crux of its stroy from Dances Wiuth Wolves. DId Kevin Costner get a writing credit?
Wow, I didn’t know the academy members cast their votes based on what moves Marc. That has to be the main criteria. Who cares what other people think, Marc has to be moved or else a movie cannot deserve best picture.
Agree with D9 being nominated for Best Picture but, I think Sharlto Copely should get some attention too. His improvasation skills are awesome.
Actually it reminded me of the animated FernGully the Last Rainforest to be honest…lots of parallels if you take out the animation and the silly jokes from Batty..immediately as soon as it ended this statement blurted out of me to my friends
The Hurt Locker runs circles around AVATAR. If the award is for Best effects fine, but Best Picture – no way.
Although I was definitely entertained by Avatar, I really hope it doesn’t win Best Picture. I’m all for Cameron’s win in the directing category, though.
Agreed. Substance has to matter at least a -little-.
I agree, I liked Avatar a lot, seen twice already. Best movie no but best director, yes… James Cameron really deserves it.
This sounds like 1998? Titanic just overwhelmed the award season when it was the fourth or fifth quality film that year. Cameron must hypnotize the voters. At least, there is no Celine Dion song this year.
I do not understand any of this! Avatar a sure winner? it’s all over? WHY!!! God da**t! there was nothing special about the movie except for it was pretty to look at. The Hurt Locker was better in every way. While James Cameron did a tremendous job directing Kathryn Bigelow did so much more. I just don’t understand why people get so intoxicated by visual effects to think that makes a movie good at storytelling and original?
While I thought Avatar was the better movie, I don’t think it will win a lot this weekend. The BFCAs will go to The Hurt Locker and I’m hoping the best director globe will go to Bigelow, but since the Globes usually go for star power I would’nt be surprised if Avatar won best picture at the Golden Globes.
After this weekend, the battle will be between The Hurt Locker and Avatar for BP. And I agree. I have no doubt that the BFCA will go to The Hurt Locker and Bigelow. But I sense that the GG will go to Avatar (even though I can see them going with Bigelow as Best Director).
I really did love Avatar..but i dont think it should win best picture at all…not the best written or acted movie of the year by far…Up In The Air much more deserving but due to Avatar being the “IT” movie of the moment i think it’s going to stampede over more deserving flicks
Avatar is certainly the most epic moviegoing experience of the year, but I have to agree with folks that District 9, Up In The Air, and certainly The Hurt Locker are much better films. Avatar is an entirely predictable story with a mediocre script. The same can’t be said for any of the other three movies I’ve noted. I will be disappointed if Avatar wins because while it entirely blew my mind, it was much more about presentation than content.
I’m really getting sick and tired of Avatar.
I’m so sick of it that I’m happy to see the Conan / Jay Leno controversy using up all the hyped up Avatar time.
I’m all for movies like Hurt Locker and Up In The Air as Best Picture type of winners.
Avatar should only win in technical categories. There was no originality in that movie at all.
Yay for movies like Up in the Air where they basically trick us into paying to watch a two hour commercial.
Considering there are about 6,000 members of the Academy, I have a tough time believing you’ve talked to enough of them to call this race done.
Agreed, crispy. Avatar’s hype is already fading, pretty much everyone has acknowledged it’s hackneyed storyline and I think that in a month, voters will be on board for a win for Up In The Air/The Hurt Locker.
Actually, no. That’s not what I said. At all. Avatar’s hype hasn’t faded one bit. Not everyone thinks it’s a bad script. But continue wallowing in your joyless existence.
I’m so relieved to read these commments. I finally saw Avatar last night and thought it was just OK. I didn’t hate it, but I certainly wouldn’t say it’s the best movie of the year. So many people LOOOOOVE it which made me wonder if maybe I had completely missed something. Have not had a chance to see Up in the Air or Hurt Locker, but did see District 9 which I liked much more than Avatar. Found myself way more emotionally involved in the prawn and his son in his little pajamas than I did any of the Na’vi (sp???).
I think Up in the Air is done as a contender to win BP. The Hurt Locker ended up being the critic’s favorite of the year, stealing a lot of the critical hype that Paramount thought that they would get for Up in the Air. In a season that has been focused on getting more blockbusters nominated (due to the 10 BP nominees, wouldn’t it be poetic justice if the little film that could (The Hurt Locker) won the whole she-bang!!!!
The Hurt Locker is going take it home this year! Also you spoke to all of the Academy voters?
I would be fine with either Hurt Locker or Up In The Air winning the Oscar. But I wouldn’t be surprised by an Avatar win at the Golden Globes. But I’d be upset if Avatar won the Oscar.