People often overstate the predictive power of the Golden Globes when it comes to the eventual Academy Award winners. After all, there’s no overlap between the voting bodies. But to sit in the Beverly Hilton ballroom during the Globes ceremony, where many of the attendees are Oscar voters, is to get a feel for how some races may be shifting (or not). Here’s an update on the biggest Oscar races and how the Globes just may have shaken things up. By the way, I was utterly useless in my predictions, guessing only seven of the 14 winners correctly. Nothing short of embarrassing! Meanwhile, three of you—Mark, PhilE, and Voula Mentzelopoulos—got an impressive 10 out of 14 right.
Best Picture
After losing to The Hurt Locker at Friday’s Critics’ Choice Awards, Avatar needed to make up some ground, and it certainly did, winning Best Drama and Best Director at the Globes. True, the reception in the room was a bit lukewarm, but I still talked to several Academy voters who have the film high on their ballots. Not a scientific polling by any means, but with Up in the Air relegated to an adapted-screenplay win at two big ceremonies in a row, it’s looking more and more like an Avatar vs. Hurt Locker showdown for picture and director. But let’s also discuss The Hangover. After landing on the AFI top 10, picking up a Writers Guild nomination, and winning Best Comedy at the Globes over five-time nominee Nine and two Meryl Streep movies, could the raunchy comedy really displace something like the Coen brothers’ A Serious Man for one of the 10 Best Picture slots? At this point, I’d give it the same odds as Star Trek.
Best Actor
It was certainly a race between George Clooney and Jeff Bridges. That Bridges received the heartiest standing ovation for any Globe winner means the Hollywood community isn’t just loving his performance in Crazy Heart, but that they’re also looking at this like a career-achievement award. After four losses at the Oscars, he may just get the big trophy after all.
Best Actress
They tied at the BFCAs, and now Meryl Streep and Sandra Bullock picked up Globe wins. Everyone will now say it’s between the two of them for the win, and they’ll be right. The Globes were Carey Mulligan’s best shot at a victory; she and Gabourey Sidibe will now need to be content with a nomination. (And I hope they will be!)
Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress
Christoph Waltz and Mo’Nique were locks before last night, and they’re even stronger locks now.
Follow me on Twitter (@DaveKarger) for the rest of the awards season.
Image credit: Paul Drinkwater/NBCU Photo Bank
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People stood for Mo’Nique too.
She better win the Oscar, but I really hope the Oscars give Kathryn Bigelow the Best Director award instead of James Cameron.
I totally agree! The Hurt Locker was a fantastic movie! I’m kind of sick of all this Avatar buzz. I get it, the special effects are amazing. But there is a separate award for special effects at the Oscars. Kathryn Bigelow totally deserves to win.
Hopefully the Academy isn’t as dumb as the foreign press. I’m surprised they didn’t recognize Tranformers.
Yeah. Nothing against Avatar, I thought it was a great movie. But I think TheHurt Locker has the best chance of winning.
Without James Cameron there is no Avatar. Yes The Hurt Locker is amazing…but we can not say that it wouldn’t ahve been good in another’s hands. But Avatar is equally impressive and since it was created, desgigned, programmed and run all out of James Cameron’s head is why he should win at least the Best Director Prize for it…
Hear, hear! Bigelow all the way (and Mo’nique too)
I completely agree with JD about Avatar and its effects. The effects are outstanding, and it deserves to win all the technical categories from the Oscars, but the story itself was lacking. Hello Pocahontas…Dancing with Wolves…and yes, I see some Tarzan. No original storyline and no great acting. A good movie, but for its effects. Other than that, it did not deserve best drama nor does it deserve Best Picture, in my opinion. And I am a sci-fi lover, and even though this movie is good it is a tad bit overrated, overhyped, and overdone.
And now I think James Cameron is a total d-bag.
I agree with JD. And all the reviews, even the ones that gave Avatar amazing reviews, said the story itself was a tad lacking. How can you win for directing and best picture when the story isn’t all there? That just astounds me. Bigelow deserves this.
And James Cameron has always been a giant douchebag. Unfortunately he can make great films so he gets away with it.
I really enjoyed Avatar when I saw it, but now it’s just overrated, and I’m sick of hearing about it.
I agree! Avatar’s win wouldn’t bother me so much if it wasn’t for James Cameron. He rubs me the wrong way!
I agree with everyone it seems, Avatar’s effects and its technological aspects were astounding. Nobody can argue that at all but let’s be honest, the story was predictable and I’d seen it before a half dozen times. That’s not Best Picture material in anyway. I enjoyed the movie but it’s starting to rub me the wrong way with all the hype detailing the money its making (thanks to 3-D and IMAX ticket prices, not to mention inflation). I get the sense it’s in the running for awards solely cause its a Cameron movie.
I “liked” the way she kept babbling on & the orchestra didn’t start playing over her speech so she would get her big fat a$$ off the stage.
What in the f*** is your damn problem. comments like that show that you are probably a fat s*it head sitting on YOUR FAT ASS, talking sh*t cause your jealous of people that are somthing while you are a big nothing. sorry your life sucks!
I don’t care what anyone says I have seen every movie this year and the only one that moved me, made me stand up and cheer, and was impressive on an acting level, a directing level, and a written level, was “Precious.” Avatar: amazing CGI, wildly unoriginal and predictable story. Hurt Locker: moving and intense, but too male angst for my taste, “Up in the Air” : totally don’t get the hype, ok acting, and ok story.
Pulling for Anna Kendrick!
I’m getting tired of the “it’s his turn or her turn” game. It would have been nice to see Carey Mulligan receive recognition last night. I’m still holding out for a nom for Abbie Cornish, but after tonight, it’s looking less likely. Where’s the love for Firth and Renner? These are amazing performances! If this is a harbinger of things to come Oscar-time, it’s gonna be a snoozer.
agree with you about both Abbie and Carey. i wish these awards were looked at individually instead of saying someone is “due” for their award. i’d really like to see appreciation for newcomers instead of nominating the same actors over and over again.
I totally agree with Joel and Julie!!!! The Grammy’s are the exact same way.
All right. Let’s be realistic. As much as I liked Colin Firth’s performance in A SINGLE MAN, I do not expect him to win the Oscar for Best Actor (nor am I surprised he lost at GG). Why? Because there’s no way the Oscars are that open-minded to give the Best Actor award to an actor who portrayed a homosexual 2 years in a row! (Have we forgotten that Sean Penn won last year for Milk?) As far am I’m concerned, I’m resigned to Jeff Bridges winning it.
Let’s also be realistic that this was not a very good year at the cinema. Up until this weekend, it was a 3-way race among AVATAR, THE HURT LOCKER and UP IN THE AIR–which I didn’t feel were all that great. At this point, I wouldn’t mind the biggest shock of the year by having the Oscars give the Best Picture award to THE HANGOVER. Don’t get me wrong. I loved THE HANGOVER. But it’ll confirm what a sucky year it has been.
Still shocked that Kenneth Branagh lost for Best Actor (mini-series).
Glad that UP IN THE AIR is losing steam. Always thought it was over-rated.
Jeff Bridges winning an Oscar is nothing to be “resigned” to. With no disrespect to Firth, Jeff Bridges delivered a great performance in Crazy Heart. He has been a tremendously gifted actor for a long, long time and has anchored, enriched or salvaged nearly every movie he has been in for years. The dude abides.
There’s no love for Firth. So much so that I won’t be surprised if he ends up being one of the major snubs on Feb. 2.
I haven’t even seen Crazy Heart (yet, and because it hasn’t played any where near here) and I am rooting for “the Dude” to win the oscar.
Yippie.. I got mentioned
Joel, look to BAFTA for some Cornish love. Nominations in three days. Go Bright Star!!
fingers crossed!
James Cameron should be shut out for Oscar as should movie as best pic, Globes was enough. The plot is not worthy and $ doesn’t equal the best! Having said that he will likely win anyhow. Hurt Locker would be nice win. Up in the Air is total shit, Clooney gets acclaim on name alone barf, so overrated. Did you see glares of death Jason Reitman gave every time Avatar won? Jeff Bridges all the way, can’t wait to see movie. Meryl should win for Oscar over Sandra, as latter not that great for a win yet.
Clooney carries quite a bit of clout so even if his movie is lighter than air they throw nominations at his feet. If Cameron weren’t so insufferable people would root for him. Meryl and Sandra in the same category-please! Jeff Bridges deserves awards for his overall body of work. It would be nice to see Bigelow win. There are so few American female directors who win Oscars.
i predict bridges and streep will win the oscars, too, for best acting. monique and christoph for supporting. ‘the hurt locker’ or ‘avatar’ for best picture. i haven’t seen ‘avatar’ but from what i’ve heard, and snippets of scenes, i am not that impressed. it boasts a wonderful meaningful important and true theme but is lacking in original story and dialogue, looks like. i haven’t seen any of these except for ‘julie and julia’ as yet, most haven’t come where i am yet, if ever, and i’ll have to resort to dvd. from what i’ve glimpsed, ‘inglorious basterds’ is horrendously violent and lurid…i did see ‘men who stare at goats,’ which is a wild fast paced funny crazy ride, where is the love for it? as an anti war satire i’d wager it excells over ‘basterds’
Love reading analysis from someone who hasn’t seen any of the films.
i saw ‘up in the air’ too, it’s a good movie, but was over praised and over hyped, i think, especially in the beginning, and that’s emerging now with ‘the hurt locker’ momentum. and ‘avatar’ won for best pic and director at the globes.
Well its official….AVATAR on its way to making history again….Box office will near 40 million again this weekend…..and on its way to winning countless OSCARS in all technical categories and Director and Picture…alright!!!!
Also….counting and rooting for Jeff Bridges to win Best Actor at the Oscars!!!!
After this show, I think none of the Oscar nominations will be that BIG of a surprise. Jeff Bridges is clearly more of a contender than I thought. I thought George Clooney or Colin Firth had it in the bag.
I think it’s pretty clear that Mo’Nique and Christoph will win.
I’m a little torn with the Best Actress category. I just don’t see them giving it to Sandra Bullock, even though her performance was pretty great.
Kathryn Bigelow SHOULD win for Best Director, but now I’m thinking the Oscars might give it to a big name this year since they gave it to Danny Boyle last year. But I really want a female director to win it. A female director who really deserves the Oscar.
As for Best Picture, I think Avatar is definitely going to win it for sure. No doubt about it.
The Academy already gave “Avatar” a Best Picture Oscar when it was called “Dances With Wolves.”
I still believe in “Inglorious Basterds.”
If Inglourious Basterds wins the SAG Best Cast award on Saturday, we’ll be looking at a three-way race for Best Picture. With Avatar not nominated, it looks like the Best Cast SAG will go to either IB or The Hurt Locker. (I’d give IB the edge.) Precious is a longshot but a possibility for the Best Cast SAG also.
Ha ha! So true!
Well the Academy does like to surprise when it comes to The Best Picture. I remember the year Crash won, no one was expecting that. So I think there’s a chance Avatar could be upset, but I doubt it.
Hello everyone!
I was a bit disappointed about the GG ceremony last night – especially in relation to the best director and film awards. I liked Avatar, and it breaks new ground in the filmmaking business (and I really want to say filmmaking and business), but as a lot of people realize (I will dare to say the majority) Avatar is not the best film of the year (in the GG nomination list at least two top Avatar, in my opinion). Although Cameron´s work is astonishing (and he is a good director), as in Titanic, I think he does a great job technically, but his movie in spite of having wonderfully mastered visual effects and craft, perfect wide shots, the storyline and characters always seem basic to me (and I don´t mean simple because you can provide the most in depth view from the simplest things). When Cameron writes his own movies we always get the stereotyped characters and some lame lines. I personally don´t like people divided in good or bad, life is not black and white, most of the time is gray and most human beings are usually not unidimensional. Again and although we can connect emotionally to his films (especially Titanic and Avatar), we do that on the basic level. Everything is flatted out on the screen; he lefts few room for the audience to feel and think outside of what he want us to feel and think (and the problem is I think he doesn´t want us to feel anything else but that). Comparing Titanic and Avatar, Avatar is a much greater technical achievement but it is a worst movie (so it must be true that the key to a good movie is not just the technical aspect of directing, photography, visual effects, editing….it is the human conflict we get from it and Titanic pull this one of better). Every choice in Avatar is the calculated (“easier”) choice, even in the Sigourney Weaver character´s death that allows us to more easily accept the “hero”´s reborn in the end). Comparing Avatar to my personal favorite Kathryn Bigelow´s (KB) “The Hurt Locker” the difference is obvious. The Hurt Locker may not have the visual effects and appeal that Avatar has, it is apparently simple but it holds a great human conflict story, packed with a strong and precise directing that leave us room to think and feel. That is why I think The Hurt Locker is the best film of the year and why KB should also be named best director.
How do you relate to this?
PS – Inglorious Bastards is my second choice…
Nice wrap-up… I think the keenest contrast with Cameron was the glorious Scorsese tribute. When you think of Cameron, you think effects. Scorsese’s movies look great but the performances!!! That’s still what most of us go to the movies for, otherwise we’d stay at home with our video games.
The Hurt Locker is like a Scorsese movie – gloriously shot, very intense, but the focus is on the performances. Terrific as the visuals are, it’s the humanity that sticks. Can’t say that about Cameron movies…
the acting looks pretty much locked up in three categories. thrilled for bridges! i still think streep is getting number 3, but i wouldn’t be shocked if bullock won. still have my money on bigelow for director (even cameron seemed to throw his weight behind her in his speech, saying she deserves it, which she does). best picture looks like a race between hurt locker, avatar, and inglorious basterds. hopefully SAG and DGA will clear things up a bit. seemed like the GGs just gave best pic to whatever made the most money in each category. i fully expect avatar to sweep the tech awards, which the globes don’t even acknowledge, but i don’t see it winning both best pic and director. looks like we could have a real race on our hands all the way up to the oscar. so much better than the suspense-free borefest of last year.
I don’t think Inglourious Basterds is in the running for BP yet. If it wins Best Cast at the SAG (which I think it will) and it gets close to the same amount of nominations as Avatar (which I think it will), we’ll be talking about it as a definite contender to win BP.
Meryl Streep and Jeff Bridges will win the oscars maybe because of the long overdue for both of them.
Mo’Nique and Waltz are quite sure to achieve their Grand Slam.
Meryl – long over due for an OSCAR – are you high?
I’m not sure what mishka meant with that comment, but as I see it, Meryl is long overdue for ANOTHER Oscar. She only has two, the most recent one for Sophie’s Choice in 1982. 1982!?!? It’s insanity! A little bit of me dies inside knowing that Meryl Streep has the same number of Oscars as Hilary Swank.
Actually I tink mishka is right. Meryl’s last win heppened in 1982 and for someone who’s called ‘the greatest actress ever’ by many people that’s a lot of time.