Neither a grown man in a fairy costume, nor Harrison Ford, nor badass avenging angels will be able to topple Avatar, even as James Cameron’s 3-D extravaganza enters its sixth weekend in theaters. Avatar has already grossed more than $500 million domestically and is likely to surpass The Dark Knight‘s cume of $533 million by the close of the weekend. With that, Dwayne Johnson’s The Tooth Fairy, the Harrison Ford-Brendan Fraser medical weepie Extraordinary Measures, and Sony’s supernatural drama Legion will all have to vie for second, third and fourth place, along with holdovers Book of Eli and The Lovely Bones.
Read on for my predictions.
1. Avatar: $34 million
Considering the film dropped only 17% last frame, a mere 20% fall this weekend is not impossible.
2. The Tooth Fairy: $18 million
We’ll find out this weekend if the Dwayne Johnson bad-guy-turns-good schtick still works with audiences. This time around the man formerly known as The Rock transforms from mean hockey player to …. nice Tooth Fairy? Sounds dubious, but with trailers playing on The Squeakquel, a strong opening with family audiences won’t be surprising.
3. Book of Eli: $16 million
With a strong $32 million opening weekend and $43 million already in the bank, Eli should hold on well its second weekend in theaters, even with the extra competition from Legion. Denzel Washington has proven he’s still a movie star.
4. Legion: $12 million
It’s violent and scary! And Biblical! This apocalyptic drama starring Dennis Quaid and Paul Bettany should generate a decent opening weekend gross — especially for a comparatively inexpensive film to make — but it won’t be enough to unseat the big boys. Still, a positive audience reaction could give it legs, er, wings in the coming weeks.
5. Lovely Bones: $9 million
Teenage girls have suddenly powered up this left-for-dead drama from Peter Jackson. With little out there for the girls this weekend, they may come back for more. Expect a 45% drop. The film has grossed $22 million so far.
It’s unlikely Extraordinary Measures will make it into the Top 5 this weekend. With an ad campaign that resembles a made-for-TV movie and with no love from the critics, this Harrison Ford/Brendan Fraser vehicle, which is targeted primarily at adults, is going to have trouble connecting. It’s a tough debut for CBS Films, which enters the theatrical business with this drama.
I think a lot of people will go see Legion, but Avatar probably will come out top. It will be very close though.
As crappy as EXTRAORDINARY MEASURES looks, I wouldn’t necessarily dismiss it. Looks to me like it could be the guy version of The Blind Side…
No way. The description was completely accurate. It looks terrible, and I don’t think they fooled anyone with that schmaltzy commercial.
Of course you wouldn’t dismiss “Extraordinary Measures” this weekend, TellyB, if only for the fact that you get fondue in your crotch every time Hollywood drops another oozing sentimental bowel expulsion down the throats of the masses. To compare this philosophically repugnant turd to “The Blind Side” is an insult to Sandra Bullock – who, one should note, is now a modern day crusader for civil rights akin to Malcolm X and Fred Williamson. I know you like to root for underdogs, merely for the fact that they remind you of your filthy, mange-ridden prostitute of a mother; but this takes it too far. Be gone to the streets, you vile pool of hemorrhoid pus, for today a light shines in the name of “The Tooth Fairy.”
the tooth fairy is going up your ass you douchebag. its going to take ur turds and leave u stds from sandra bullock. u are an insult to toilet bowl licking assholes everywhere
Legion just doesn’t look like a particularly good movie, and with no major players in the cast besides Dennis Quaid (who doesn’t exactly scream ‘movie star’), plus the momentum “Avatar” will have with its recent Golden Globes triumph, it won’t be close at all.
I think Paul Bettany is sort of a major player! Looks cool to me. But, I do believe that Avatar will still be #1.
I agree about Paul Bettany. He’s a great actor. I look forward to seeing him in this movie.
Legion also has Tyrese Gibson, Kate Walsh, and Charles S Dutton. Not sure if those are “major players” but it’s not a bunch of nobodies!
but it also looks awful
I agree…’Legion” has a fine cast, esp. Paul Bettany. Though I dunno if I want to see it or wait for video
Saw LEGION at midnight last night…sadly, the preview with the creepy grandma was some of the best parts of the movie. No way will LEGIOn overcome AVATAR esp. once reviews & word of mouth get out. It was a nice way to pass 100 minutes…thats about it.
This is my opinion, Legion will outgross Avatar on Friday but then loss steam for the full weekend like Sherlock Holmes and Eli.. Avatar just got 8 nominations for the big British awards and won the big stuff at the Golden Globes..
CBS should have shecduled their movie for another weekend.
I think Eli could hang tough at #2. Something tells me that Tooth Fairy will wind up as The Spy Next Door Redux. Legion will be kind of a niche film, and I doubt it gets too high up the list (which kind of sucks because I like both Quaid and Bettany). Extraordinary Measures just looks and feels like a Lifetime movie, even considering Ford and Fraser. Its marketing hasn’t been the best, either, honestly.
Also worth noting: Avatar will likely surpass Titanic’s worldwide record by the end of this weekend. Book it.
Yea…my whole family has booked AVATAR this weekend…
you know Titanic grossed $600 right? Avatar cld beat it, but this weekend? I doubt it…
@Kevin, $600 billion is Titanic’s domestic number. Kelsey was talking about worldwide.
Worldwide record ($1.835B), not domestic
$600 million, not billion.
Titanic’s worldwide gross will fall this weekend to Avatar.
T I T A N I C
Domestic: $600,788,188 (32.6%)
+ Foreign: $1,242,091,767 (67.4%)
= Worldwide: $1,842,879,955
A V A T A R
Domestic: $512,852,205 (30.4%)
+ Foreign: $1,172,833,529 (69.6%)
= Worldwide: $1,685,685,734
I think Legion will do better than expected. I think it looks great and I don’t care who’s in it.
I agree. Even if it turns out to be crappy, it still seems to have a lot of buzz and a ton of marketing behind it. I expect it to do better than Tooth Fairy.
why would anyone pay to see ‘Extraordinary Measures’? Even if it’s somehow good, the soft-focus previews make it look exactly like a Lifetime or Hallmark TV movie, so why should anyone pay when it looks like it’ll be on TV any day now?
Why pay to see a bland looking tv movie when you can see CBS bland programming for free everyday
I think Legion looks like crap. No really, the word stupid screams out.. Avatar will rule for one more week and then it might fall to Mad Mel. Should be close.
watch legion for the wings…. stay for the abs!! tee-hee!
its a reallly crappy movie…saw it already…yuck!
Avatar should take out Titanic this weekend.
Re: “The Lovely Bones”. I saw it open last Friday evening– teenage girls made up about a whopping 4% of the audience. Stop assuming that they are the only ones loving this film. The book reigns in my top-5-novels list, yet I can still appreciate the film as a separate entity. I am a 28 y.o. female and my husband, 31, saw it with me and we both were moved many times. We plan to go to the movies twice this weekend for repeats– both “Up in the Air” and “The Lovely Bones” had us itching for seconds.
AVATAR will have another…and unexpected close to 50 million weekend….and my whole family is going on Saturday….my whole family….WOW!!
blind-item-hot-couple-make-love-and-war. KEEP EMAILING AUSIELLO AND TELL HIM YOU WANT AN ANSWER TO THIS FROM SEPTEMBER
good lord, who cares?
They didn’t show Legion to critics. When this happens it means the movie is going to be bad. Epic bad.
I predict Legion will be No. 2…taking in at least 30 Million. It looks awesome but i doubt i am going to see it. I am broke seeing Avatar so many times.