Now that we’re less than 24 hours away from the Oscar nominations announcement, I thought I’d resurrect perhaps my favorite post from last year, where I tried to imagine what the biggest surprises of the nominations might be. (A few of them, like The Reader bumping out The Dark Knight for Best Picture, or Kate Winslet landing in Best Actress instead of Best Supporting Actress for that film, actually ended up happening.) This year contains many sure things — The Hurt Locker, Avatar, Up in the Air, Inglourious Basterds, and Precious will claim half of the Best Picture slots, for instance — but there’s also a lot that’s up for grabs. So here are 10 possible shockers we may be talking about tomorrow.
1. With the exception of An Education, the other five Best Picture slots all go to $100-million-plus grossers: some combination of Up, District 9, Star Trek, The Blind Side, and The Hangover.
2. Though Precious scores a Best Picture nod, director Lee Daniels is overlooked, in favor of District 9‘s Neill Blomkamp.
3. Avatar‘s Zoe Saldana muscles into Best Actress over The Last Station‘s Helen Mirren, becoming the first actor ever to earn a nomination for a motion-capture or voice performance.
4. The Hurt Locker‘s Anthony Mackie scores a supporting-actor nomination after being ignored by the Broadcast Critics, Golden Globes, and SAG.
5. Stanley Tucci earns his first career nomination…but for Julie & Julia instead of The Lovely Bones.
6. Inglourious Basterds standouts Diane Kruger and Mélanie Laurent both make it into the supporting actress race over Julianne Moore and Samantha Morton.
7. Invictus gets completely shut out of the nominations.
8. Ed Helms’ Hangover ditty “Stu’s Song” steals a Best Song nomination away from Nine.
9. Jeff Bridges’ momentum buoys Crazy Heart into the Best Supporting Actress (Maggie Gyllenhaal) and/or Best Adapted Screenplay (Scott Cooper) categories.
And finally…
10. The Hurt Locker ties Avatar for the most nominations, with 9 each.
Can you see any of these taking place tomorrow? What surprises are you hoping for? Follow me on Twitter (@davekarger) for Oscar news and updates for the rest of the season.
Image credit: Frank Masi
Sigh. Zoe Saldana’s performance was NOT a voice-over. At ALL. Thinking like that will stop her from getting a nomination.
I agree Jimmy. To me it was also her body language, so perfectly displayed by the advanced motion capture tech, that made her performance so great.
Regardless, though you are right it was more than voice-over, I do not see her getting a nom.
Dude she was a BEAST in that movie, and if anyone was going to get an oscar nod from that movie it would be her.
It was a cartoon. It was annoying to watch. If this is the future of movies, I will save A LOT of money. Where does the tech end and her acting begin? Was that her twitching, or was it added later. Did she raise her eyebrows or not? More fear and emotion has been derived from Darth Vader’s heavy breathing than ‘her’ acting.
A V A T A R was done more with digital make up than with animation. Digital bodies are moved with the data from the motion capture tech. Voice over? EW is pretty ignorant.
You are so right. Get with it, Karger!
Point taken, guys. I’ve switched my language to “motion-capture or voice performance.”
If she grabs nom then Andy Skirkis should have received one for his work as Gollum
Just because he didn’t get one doesn’t mean she shouldn’t. The Academy is still learning about the technology, and her nom would be progress.
Agreed freddy. There is no way that Saldana’s motion capture performance was better than Andy Serkis’ performance in LoTR.
Thats not the point, its just getting nominated for a motion-capture performance would make it EPIC.
regardless, she doesn’t deserve it
More than that, Brad Pitt earned an Oscar nom for his performance capture work in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button last year. The studio did an incredibly smooth job of downplaying the technology, so voters didn’t realize just how digital that character was.
Unlike Avatar, there was more “live” Brad Pitt, than technology driven Brad Pitt, so not a real comparison at all. Also, the studio did not try and hide anything, it was a big story, even made the CBS evening news.
“earn a nomination for a motion-capture or voice performance”
Um, learn to read.
No, the fact her performance was stiff will (hopefully) keep her from a nomination.
hmm… I read that as her trying to act like an alien…
Hope you’re right about Invictus and Hurt Locker.
I doubt it though. The Academy love Clint Eastwood.
But yet they completely snubbed Gran Torino last year. They don’t love him as much as you think.
I’m thinking the Avatar late season success helps Sigourney Weaver get a surprise supporting actress nomination.
For what…smoking and acting pissed off?
I’ve never been a smoker but am constantly amazed at the reaction her character’s habit evoked. I never thought of it as more than an easy indication of her cantankerous nature.
Alec Baldwin getting a nom for Supporting Actor..and (500) Days Of Summer for Best Picture ..are my picks for surprises.
I think I can see some of these taking place. Also, Zoe Saldana did more than just a voice performance. She had to act to provide all of the facial expressions and movements of the character. It’s more like a motion capture performance. Also, I really hope The Blind Side doesn’t get a Best PIc nom. That movie wasn’t very good, and neither was Bullock. Just my opinion.
The biggest surprise would be Taylor Swift wins an Oscar because she can. After all she is winning every other award because she ‘ sings’.
the blind side as a possible best picture nominee? that ‘s probably the biggest stretch on the ‘possible’ list.
Pulling for Melanie Laurent.
Really want “Shoshona” to get some love. She was magnificent.
Ditto.
Melanie is the real star of Inglorious along with Christoph Waltz.
#5 – most likely. #3 – least likely.
I hope you are right – sorry, but they should not allow awards for these types of performances.
Piss off, of course they should. Acting is acting.
Demerson’s right…I’d even say a vo/mc performance requires more skill. If you’re able to convey the full emotion of a character using only your voice – not your body or to have your body filtered – either way you’re doing the same work with less of your instrument. Do discount the extra work necessary is ridiculous.
Doesn’t Avatar create the need for a new term to describe this type of performance? I agree that “voice performance” sounds condescending. Maybe something like “Virtual Performance” or “Motion Captured Performance”?
Fantastic Mr. Fox gets a Best Picture nomination.
As it should! That would be amazing!
Just take out The Blind Side from Dave’s list and slot in the fantastic Fantastic Mr Fox. It could happen. With 10 BP noms, why not give a seat at the table to another animated film?
YEAH! I think Fantastic Mr. Fox should steal Up’s nod in the Best Picture, while Up gets its Best Animated nomination.
That would be “Fantastic”!
Fantastic Mr. Fox was easily the most fun I had at the movies last year. A magnificent film. Not that Up isn’t also great, just that I think Fantastic Mr. Fox is better.
I walked out of Avatar thinking Zoe Saldana was the best actor from that and was disappointed she didn’t get a GG nomnation.
I think she was absolutely the best actor in that film. However, I still don’t think it was a good enough performance for an Oscar nom, though it was very good and I like her a lot.
I walked out of Avatar too…after the first 25 minutes.
Jerk.
Anyone else think the Best Picture field being expanded to 10 is a mistake? Wouldn’t it have been better had they made it a flexible category that could have between 5-10 nominees? This would prevent unworthy movies from sneaking in while allowing for movies that deserve it to get their due. In fact, I’d like to see this apply to all categories.
I agree Jeff. I think it’s actually ridiculous to HAVE to have 10 nominees. I’m struggling to think of even 5 that deserve it this year. I get that they’re trying to bring in more viewers but I still.
It is a mistake. Just think how long that telecast is gonna be now. We are talking 10 hours minimum.
Then don’t watch.
Koobie…they don’t show the entire nominated film. They introduce it and show a clip. probably about 3 minutes per film so five extra nominees equals a 15 minute longer show. It won’t add the 6 1/2 hours you’re predicting.
I beleive it’s UP TO 10. Depending on however many movies qualify.
Could not disagree more. Only people who have issues with change think this is a bad idea. It doesn’t “dilute” the award or its prestige. Were there only five nominees this year we would have know who they were weeks ago and no one would be interested. There is some excitement to this morning only because everyone wants to know what the other five will be.
I’m hoping that ‘The Hurt Locker’ ties ‘Avatar in the nomination count.
Oh i just thought of one that was out of the blue. Zach Galifianakis gets nominated for Best Supporting Actor for The Hangover. Crazy right?
No more crazy than Marisa Tomei for My Cousin Vinny!
Marisa was hot and hilarious at the same time! Respect the Tomei.
oh my god that would make my day.
i didn’t know they gave out rings at the holocaust!