Today we kick off the first of six weekly OscarWatch videos in which my colleague Missy Schwartz and I will discuss the most interesting Oscar races of the year and help you identify which movies you need to catch up with before Oscar night on March 7. Now that the nominations are finally out, we begin with the Best Picture and Best Actress categories, which boast two of the tightest races of the year. Is the momentum with Avatar or The Hurt Locker? Sandra or Meryl? Here’s where we stand right now; we’ll have more OscarWatch TV updates every week until the telecast.
I love Sandra, but I’m pulling for Meryl to FINALLY take home her third Oscar.
And if it really is a two horse race for Best Picture, then I’m pulling for The Hurt Locker. But if there’s any chance another film could swoop in and surprise us, I’m hoping for it to be Inglourious Basterds.
Meryl did a terrific job, but does anyone else here think that her role was more of a supporting actress? Even the idea of the movie was having Julia Child provide support to Julie.
I also remember last year all of the momentum of Mickey Rourke hit a dead end at the very last week and Sean Penn pulled off the “upset.” Could happen to Sandra and Meryl could get it.
Much as I thought Rourke deserved it, it was no upset. Penn was in the Best Picture nominee and won the SAG and Critics’ Choice. Mickey won the Globe and BAFTA. It was neck and neck.
Jb – you make a good point. she shared the screen w/ julie/Amy. However, the movie came alive when Streep’s character was on screen, and she had the better dialogue. Everybody should read the Newsweek critique of Streep, which is powerful and realistic, and analyzes her acting not in a good way.
Meryl outshined Amy Adams all over the place in Julie & Julia. If I ever rent that movie to watch it again I would just skip to the parts with Meryl in them, she *made* that movie worth watching. Julie/Amy Adams character came off as extremely self serving and on the whole very uninteresting.
Reply to Sally in Chicago:
I think there is some truth to the Newsweek piece. Streep (who i think is an incredible actress) sometimes overshadows the movie she’s in and the actors around her. Her real-life persona is just too big at this point, and there’s no avoiding it. Consider that even when she’s in arguably ‘supporting’ roles (like Julia, and Devil), she will still be considered for the ‘lead’ role come awards time. I think that’s a perfect example of her bigger real life persona being recognized, rather than recognition of the actual role she’s playing.
well the truth is that the studios that submit films for best pictures also have to submit actors for whatever category they want. for instance, in the case julie and julia the studio can decide whether to put meryl for supporting or lead actress the same goes for amy adams. they do this so (in this case mery) their submition will have the best chance to score with the oscar voters. remember brokeback mountain? focus entertainmen submitted heath ledger for supporting cause he was getting the most buzz in the media. but in reality enis delmar/legder was the leading actor. it all depends on what the studio thinks who has the best chance to score big and the awards.
I think Sandy will win
Since the Oscar acting nominees almost mirror those of SAG except in the Best Supporting Actress category, expect the same SAG winners to win in their respective Oscar acting categories. As for Best Director, Kathryn Bigelow will be bestowed the honor of being the first woman to win the Oscar since she directed a very strong contender for Best Picture. However, Avatar will come out on top for Best Picture because of its global impact and box office success, technological achievement and pro-environment message.
A SAG win does not always equal an Oscar. Renee Zellweger won in 2003 for Chicago, but lost to Nicole Kidman at the Oscars. Sometimes the Oscar goes to those who are “owed”, while the SAG goes to those who are popular. (see Toni Collette & Tina Fey this year). In any case, Sandra’s got it in the bag. Meryl has the Scorsese effect – she’s been nominated so many times sinc her last win, that the Academy will wait for an absolute peak performance to give her another award. “Julie & Julia” got no other love; “The Blind Side” got the Best Picture nom.
Actually, five out of sixteen SAG lead actress winners have lost the Oscar to someone else. Best Supporting Actor is the only catagory with a larger win to lose ratio.
okay to pdy and to everybody else on here, i dont think you realize the oscar voting is different this year! The voting is weighted, Avatar is practically elimnated from the race due to this, because it doesn’t even have an oscar nomination for screenplay. Basically whoever wins best director will be the best picture winner due to the way the oscar voting works this year. Also do not be shocked if Jeremey Renner wins best actor
Not necessarily. Rourke took the SAG last year and Penn took the Oscar. So don’t expect anything.
God, Hurt Locker looks so boring…
I picked up The Hurt Locker blind from the video store and was captivated from start to finish. There was just something about it…
It’s the most exciting movie I’ve seen in years. Made all the more real and suspenseful by the fact that it’s true to life…unlike imaginary adventures to a planet with blue people and climactic battle scenes that belong more in a video game than a movie.
About as far from boring as possible. I put it on on demand the other night, figuring I’d probably fall asleep partyway through, but at least be able to say I saw some of it come Oscar night. Not only did I not fall asleep, I could barely sit down to watch it, and then was so hyped up I couldn’t sleep for an hour after it was over. Watch it, its great!
@ Elliot: it kind of is. I was expecting more. I’d be ok with it winning, as long as the Oscar doesn’t go to Avatar, which was interesting visually, but not something I’d ever watch again. I am hoping for Inglourious Basterds to pull an upset.
To be honest, I thought it would be… but then I watched it, and The Hurt Locker did NOT disappoint. It really makes an impact on how one thinks about Iraq, and the war(s) in the Middle East, and what the soldiers go through, and all of that. It really is a fantastic movie, much, much better than I thought it was going to be. I recommend you see it.
It’s a war movie. And like all war movies, it’s not always gonna strike the same chord in all viewers.
The Hurt Locker was one of the best films I have seen in a long time and I hope it wins best picture and would love to see Jeremey Renner win best actor.
Honestly , it is not boring. It’s a great movie. It gave me chills and made me think at the same time. I was on the edge of my seat , and had nightmares about Iraq that night. It’s a powerful film. And why not have the final Best film of the 00′s be one that makes you look back on the war in Iraq? It seems fitting to me. It’s a great way for Hollywood to Honor great film making , and bring attention to the men and women who’s minds have been destroyed in the last decade from war.
“Looks so boring” as in I didn’t really see the movie but it looks boring. No one who saw “The Hurt Locker” could ever call it boring. It was anything but.
The Hurt Locker was amazing. Jeremy Renner really deserves Best Actor as well. He was captivating. He also has proven through the years how incredibly talented he is, even though he hasn’t become a “star”…yet. By the way, I was pretty disappointed to buy EW’s Oscar issue only to see that 3 out of the 5 Best Actor nominees got a full page feature each. Colin Firth got almost a whole page and Renner gets a sliver of space on Colin Firth’s page! Where’s the love for this guy? He’s a great actor.
@ Nick B, Yea If Inglorious or Up beat The Hurt Locker i’ll be happy. But The Hurt Locker should and will win.
@ Levi…I was also going to mention how happy I would be if Up wins, but I know how unrealistic that is.
meryl. if sandra wins this, i will have lost all respect for oscar voters. although anybody beating meryl for any acting award is really a joke….but god knows its happened many, many times in the past.
You’re so right…
2000 – Ellen Burstyn loosing to Julia Roberts
1998 – Cate Blanchett loosing to Gwyneth Paltrow. GP was great in Shakespeare in love but CB was phenomenal..
Really hope Meryl wins this one ;o)
I’d like to see Meryl win, but momentum and good vibrations are with Sandra Bullock. I think the SAG win kind of sealed it. I also believe her appeal is what helped give The Blind Side its Best Picture nomination.
Best Picture is a dead heat between those two. The Hurt Locker probably deserves it more and is winning more of the big guild prizes. BUT I can’t shake the feeling that the low BO is going to kill it.
So, I’ll say we’ll have a repeat of 2000 (or 2001, depending on how you mark your Oscar years). Traffic was a “better” film than Gladiator, and won director, supporting actor and adapted screenplay. BUT Gladiator won picture. I think something similar will happen this year. Bigelow will deservedly win director and The Hurt Locker will take editing and probably a couple more prizes. But the big award will go to the “bigger” movie.
To add: Best Picture was the ONLY Oscar that Traffic was nominated for and didn’t win. That kind of suggests to me that “popularity” was some sort of consideration. You had something similar in 2002 (’03) when The Pianist took director, actor and adapted screenplay but lost picture to the glitzier and higher-grossing Chicago.
I guess my point is, just because a movie wins big non-BP awards doesn’t necessarily always guarantee that it will win BP in the end.
actually both benicio del toro (best supporting actor) and steven soderberge (best director) won the oscar for there work on traffic!!
Um, I know? Did you even read what I wrote? I said that Traffic won every award it was nominated for EXCEPT Best Picture. Which would be director, adapted screenplay, editing and supporting actor.
I KNOW Del Toro and Soderbergh won. I said so in my first post, so I’m not sure what you’re trying to say.
Very good point. When there’s two contenders, they seem to split director & picture to appease both camps. (Above examples, Crash & Brokeback Mountain…)
Thank the critics for keeping the Hurt Locker alive.
And the nerds for keeping Avatar alive.
And an honorable mention to A for keeping pointless internet trolling alive. So, you peeking your face out to throw another jab at Avatar fans? 2 billion dollars plus, that’s what Avatar has to say about your stupid nonsense. You think it’s only nerds that are coughing up that kind of money? Go back to your being irrelevant.
Boy, nerds are so sensitive. Every day they get so butt hurt if someone goes against Avatar. What point are you making, looks like you are just trolling yourself.
I’m with A. Me doth think Charles protests too much.
So A calls me sensitive but he finds it necessary to post stupid crap on every single Avatar thread. Sorry, dude, you are too pitiful to be calling anyone a nerd.
Avatar was a decent movie, but best picture worthy? Certainly not. The Hurt Locker was an amazing film. Sure it didn’t make the money Avatar did, but $ does not equal quality. Anyone who has seen both of these films can attest to that.
The race is tight for meryl and sandra. I loved both performances. I’m so happy that Sandra is finally getting recognized. She may not be the most talented but the girl has alot of heart and passion and I instantly fell in love with her after watching While You Were Sleeping. In The Blind Side she gets to show off her strength with a whole lot of heart. Watching her I saw the epitome of an unconditional mother. It is that maternal strength that has won her raves from critics and her peers. With Meryl it’s just simple—she’s one of the best chamelion actors. And watching her play Julia was just astounding. Every word, every gesture, every joyful response shows the talents of a pro. My heart says a tie. I was transfixed by both of them.
i seriously dont know why sandra bullock won the sag and golden globe. remember that awful movie she was in which she was stalking a reporter? yeah and not to mention she makes about 10 to 15 million per picture. and she has produced and acted in many films. can u tell me how many actresses that make that much money have won a best actress award? almost 5% since 1950. so it goes for meryl. she has been nominated for like 16 times for god’s sakes.
What difference does it make how much money she makes? Or what movies she has appeared in before? She is nominated for this performance and not the ones prior.
I haven’t seen Avatar but I have seen Hurt Locker. Hurt Locker was just good in my opinion…I’m hoping it’s neither of the two.
My favorite of the year was ‘Inglourious Basterds,’ but if it comes down to ‘Hurt Locker’ vs. ‘Avatar,’ I’d definitely go with ‘Hurt Locker.’ ‘Avatar’ should win the FX awards, and that’s it.
Also, I hope Bullock wins because it’ll piss off SOOO many people.
I post that all the time about Avatar just winning the FX awards and I always get responses with personal attacks. Avatards can’t handle other opinions.
I absolutely love Avatar but I agree with this. If it wins Best Movie, its going to be for breaking 2Bil at the box office.
It will get Best Cinematography, Art Direction, Film Editing, and Visual Effects. I would give it a chance with sound editing and mixing.
I also think it has a strong chance for Best Director.
It will probably walk away with 8/9 awards (losing Best Picture).
You get personal attacks because you are nasty and kind of a jerk in your posts.
Honestly i can see many things happening with avatar at the oscars, i can see it being completely robbed, winning just fx awards, and winning all of them
I figure Bullock will win because she’s younger and this has been her year, and if you look at past Best Actress winners, besides Helen Mirren most of them are young and good looking. The Academy is unfortunately ageist when it comes to Actress. I would LOVE to see Meryl finally win a third after so many nominations, but the movie was so boring, the performances being perhaps the best part, that I’m not sure this is the film she should win her third for. Meryl needs to be in another Best Picture, and unfortunately Bullock was one the Academy liked more.
But Meryl might take the award because it’s long overdue. She was nominated 4 times in the last ten years.
Ever notice that Meryl Streep is almost always the favorite to win up until an month or so before the Awards, then someone else pulls out ahead?
Carey Mulligan in An Eduation leaves both Meryl and Sandra in the dust. She really is the Best of the Best this year.
I get the BO receipts count for something but it seems to me EW is campaigning for Avatar to win. Avatar has only won the Golden Globe and NY online whereas The Hurt Locker has won more than 10 BP awards including the producer’s guild. This scenario speaks loudly as to who the frontrunner is. Of course surprises do happen but as of today it’s The Hurt Locker for the win. As for Sandra she has it in the bag, evidence is the movie being nominated for BP. She actually deserves it more. And btw if Streep couldn’t win it Last year for her amazing performance in doubt she’s not gonna do it for crap like Julie and Julia.
Read the Newsweek critique of Streep, which basically says she’s not THAT good.
Disagree. I’d say it seems like EW is rooting for Avatar to LOSE. They can’t write about its grosses without mentioning inflation (i.e. tempering its success), and now they’re calling it the underdog.
And I agree with Katie above. The Hurt Locker’s $12.6 million gross is a serious detriment and anyone who thinks it isn’t is in denial. Doesn’t mean that makes it OK, just looking at precedent.
EW clearly does not take Avatar seriously. They counted it out and barely covered the project, and only when Avatar was reaching immense levels of succes did the film grace the cover of EW, still three weeks late. All EW critics are for The Hurt Locker, as are most other critics, but luckily, the Academy is not made up of critix, but rather, people who actually live and work within the industry. Hopefully they will recognize what a cinematic achievement Avatar is (much like Titanic was). It’s just a shame that Cameron’s big epics like this get such a harsh backlash.
Dude, if you think EW is campaigning FOR Avatar to win you clearly don’t read EW. If they thought they could sway votes to New Moon they’d do it. Hurt Locker is their second choice though.
Meryl Streep is fantastic, and she deserves to win, but it’s true, it should be for a more intense and outstanding role (like in Doubt, in which she was amazing!). But Julie and Julia was not nearly the acting-based movie that Doubt was. I think the Academy will wait until Meryl is in another more outstanding movie, (like Out of Africa, which she should have won for, or The Devil Wears Prada–a role that would have been altogether insignificant without it having been played by Meryl).
Ditto on Meryl should’ve won for THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA. She was brilliant there. But then again, Helen Mirren in THE QUEEN was sooooooo phenomenal that year. Anyway, I still hope Meryl wins this time. Sandra was good in her movie, but Meryl was way better. I guess if the Academy will award Sandra, it’s because the film community found her nice and likeable (which she really is anyway), rather than being the best actress among the nominees.
Raymond, I have to agree Meryl was amazing in DWP but I felt Helen Mirren really wasn’t amazing. Plus, i felt “the queen” was boring. But, to each his own.
Penelope Cruz should have won for her amazing performance in “Volver”
if Sandra Bullock win this, it will be the WORST Best Oscar actress since Helen Hunt for “As Good as it Gets!”
No way. Julia Roberts, whose performance in Erin Brokovich I do love and think is great, should not have won over Ellen Burstyn in any way.
The most offensive, for me, was Reese Witherspoon winning for an average performance over the superb Felicity Huffman.
good point ’bout Burstyn vs. Roberts. but COME ON SANDRA F****** BULLOCK over MERYL STREEP!!!
I re-watched Requiem again b/c @ssholes on here told me to – doubting I could grasp it… and again… I just don’t connect with Burstyn’s performance. I also find her to be a bitch in general – I remember she campaigned hard that year too, going so far as to call her self great. She said all the great actresses have TWO Oscars and she wants her second… LOL. But Burstyn is no Meryl, and if two oscars is a measure of great acting than that places Hillary Swank on the level of Meryl. (Obviously, not two Oscars is not an effective tool of measure.)
I disagree with your first point: I believe, while Ellen Burstyn was incredible, Julia Roberts really was superior in her performance. Much more depth to her character.
And I agree with you on your second point: Reese Witherspoon should have lost to Felicity Huffman! That was so upsetting that the movie put off too many of the academy to realize that Felicity was faaarrrr superior in every way.
I’m rooting for Meryl.
You got that right about Felicity. That performance was a one-of-a- kind that will long be remembered by all those who saw it. It was a harrowing story, sensitively played out by Huffman with such nuance and pathos that it was heartbrakingly beautiful!
Hope she gets another chance in feature films to show us more of her amazing acting range.
I agree that Ellen Burstyn was great in Requium for a Dream, but she was mainly a ‘supporting role’ cuz there was another main actress in it too…Jennifer Connely’s was in it and was just as compelling.
Julia Roberts deserved it for the Erin Brokenvich movie…she was like the only ‘main’ actress in it…that might sway Academy voters…that is why I feel Meryl will lose again because she really is a ‘supporting’ role in Julie and Julia. My bet is on Gabey Sidibe in Precious for the Oscar…not Sandra or Meryl!
Cate Blanchett losing best actress to Gwyneth Paltrow in 1998 – Cb’s performance in Wlizabeth was outstanding, GP was great too but no match to Cate
Helen Hunt got the Oscar in the “only Yank in the tea party” syndrome. She was up against British acting royalty that year: Dame Judi Dench, Helena Bonham-Carter, Julie Christie and Kate Winslet. But the Best Actress winner I didn’t get ever (even after watching twice) was Halle Berry in MONSTERS BALL over Sissy Spacek in IN THE BEDROOM.
NO – THE WIERDEST BEST ACTRESS LOSS WAS WHEN CHER ( MOONSTRUCK) BEAT GLENN CLOSE ( DANGEROUS LIASONS) I LOVED CHER IN MASK – BUT GLENN BLEW HER AWAY IN DANGEROUS LIASONS!
ALSO JOHN MALKOVITCH AND MICHELLE PFIEFFER SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED/WON! THAT FILM WAS INCREDIBLE. MOOSTRUCK WAS SOOOOO MEDIOCRE!
AND PS I HOPE INGLOURIUS BASTERDS IS THE UPSET THIS YEAR – TARANTINO’S BEST EVER FILM!
Isn’t it amazing how the Blind Side just caught on? I went into that movie not knowing anything except the buzz, and walked out with tears streaming down my face. That’s the way movies should be made — emotionally connecting.
I’m pulling for the Hurt Locker because I felt like I was right there with those guys and it was so tense.
Oh a shallow note, Dave Karger looks cuter every year.
Yeah… I often hate his contributions, but he is damn cute…
I think Dave is gettin’ some…he has a glow about him!
he is pretty cute, yummy!
Dave mentioned that this is the first of six videos he’ll be doing. Do you think we can convince him to do the next five naked?
Just watched Hurt Locker and it was one of the best movies I’ve ever seen. Best Picture all the way!
hurt Locker all the way I will be ill if Avatar wins
I saw The Hurt Locker and it was good… but I personally would rather see UP win over Avatar and Hurt. As for the Actress race – I honestly think that Streep and Bullock might split the vote allowing one of the ingenue’s steal with a MAJOR upset. Personally I think Meryl is long overdue her third effing Oscar. I love that statistically, Meryl basically averaged 1 Oscar nomination every other year in her 32 year career (1977-2009.)
I believe the most famous split vote in the Best Actress category occurred in the 1950 ceremony when Bette Davis (All about Eve) was pitted against Gloria Swanson (Sunset Blvd.). Davis’ co-star Anne Baxter and Eleanor Parker (Caged) were also nominated, with Judy Holiday (Born Yesterday) winning the award.
If a vote split between Streep and Billock occurs with either Mulligan, Sidibe or even Mirren winning the award, it would be a very big surprise but not unprecedented.
Obviously, the name should have been Bullock not Billock.
You’re right, it would not be unprecedented. A second big vote split occurred in 1962, when the legendary Bette Davis was campaigning for her third Oscar in “Whatever Happened To Baby Jane” and the great Katharine Hepburn was gunning for number two in “A Long Day’s Journey Into the Night”. And once again, a newcomer ran up the middle of that split vote to victory – Anne Bancroft in “The Miracle Worker”.
I think Sandra did a good job in The Blind Side, but I am profoundly confused with all of the Best Actress love shes received so far. Am I the only one that think Sandra was just okay and not the best actress of the year??
Sandra Bullock has been so terrible in the steaming pile of garbage movies she’s appeared in over the last 10 years, this one decent performance is probably going to get her an Oscar. It’s insane. “The Blind Side” is nothing more than a well-made Lifetime Movie of the week. Sandra Bullock an Oscar winner? It will cheapen the award forever.
Oscar winner Kim Basinger didn’t cheapen anything. Anyone can have “Their Year”.
I’m still in denial about her front-runner status. I just don’t get it. I like her as much as the next person and I’m happy that she had such a good year, but it is an Oscar. I don’t understand how they can give it to her for that film. I’ve been following the Oscars closely for about 8 years and this makes no sense to me. I understand it’s not always about the best performance but her winning over Mulligan, Streep and Sidibe invalidates everything I thought I knew about the Oscars and I predicted 20/24 awards last year.
I agree with you. It should be about the performance not who is having a good year or whos turn it is to win… I really hope Meryl will win but Mulligan and Sidibe were so great too – but not Sandra!
I agree with you. She was good, but I cannot understand all the glitter about her performance. Meryl Streep or the other girls should take the oscar, but not Bullock.
@Paul: Nope. A lot of us think so, too.
Yeah, I definitely would have replaced both Sandra Bullock’s AND Helen Mirren’s nomination with nominations for Abbie Cornish (“Bright Star”) and Emily Blunt (“Young Victoria”). Sandy wasn’t good enough to be nominated, and if she wins, I will from then on consider the Oscars irrelevant.
I definitely agree Sandra’s performance is not Oscar-worthy. I was also surprised to see The Blind Side get a best picture nomination. There were other, better movies that got passed over for this very pleasant, but average, film (Star Trek, Invictus, Moon even).