You can blame it on Adrien Brody. Ever since the star of The Pianist shocked the Kodak Theatre by winning the Best Actor Oscar over presumed front-runners Jack Nicholson and Daniel Day-Lewis in 2003, some people now forecast upsets in the acting races every year. I’ve already begun to hear it: Maggie Gyllenhaal could just topple Mo’Nique for Best Supporting Actress. Woody Harrelson is poised to upset Christoph Waltz for Best Supporting Actor. Sandra Bullock and Meryl Streep will split the Best Actress vote, allowing for Gabourey Sidibe to steal it. I’m even quasi-guilty of perpetuating this myth: When one of my Twitter followers asked me if Jeremy Renner “could pull an Adrien Brody,” I responded, “It’s a long shot, but he’s the only one who can upset Jeff Bridges.” I still think Renner is No. 2 in the Best Actor derby, but face it: It’s not happening. And neither is Maggie Gyllenhaal. Or Woody Harrelson. Or Gabourey Sidibe. We all need to be content with the reality that the only real races in the major categories this year are for Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay. Otherwise we’re all setting ourselves up for a night of disappointment on March 7.
Feb 9
2010
02:54 PM ET
Upsets in the acting races? Get real!
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And I hope there aren’t any upsets. Christoph, Jeff, Monique and Sandra or Meryl all deserve to win Oscars this year!
SaBu does not deserve to be nominated, let alone win, an Oscar. Her inclusion has further destroyed the integrity of AMPAS.
I think most of the actors have a pretty good shot, especially in the Best Actor and Actress categories. The supporting categories are pretty much locked though. If Mo’Nique or Christoph don’t win then I will cut my head off! Those two sure bets.
what kind of article is this? stupidest post i have ever seen. you basically said a whole lot of nothing. go write something worth a damn, dave.
Boy, you got that rite BOB!!! THIS ARTICLE IS TRASH
Bob and Monise, I appreciate your criticisms. But with all due respect, my Oscar blog is designed to give my up to the second take on what I am hearing in Oscar talk circles, and the picking of the acting upset is an interesting trend that I am hearing a lot about. My goal is to give my insight with these things and get it out to the faithful Entertainment Weekly Oscar followers. I am sorry that you did not find this particular thread interesting but I appreciate you both for reading.
This is a reply to Dave – gotta admire your tact in responding to the trash-talking.
It’s exactly what it looks like: The state of the race as of now, letting his readers know that they should know better to trust other prognosticators weird attention-grabbing wild cards. Give us a comment worth a damn, bob.
The author could have supported his theory with a few more sentences though don’tcha think?
I thought Sandra Bullock was poised to win….my god, is Streep still considered the lead? Thank god if she is.
Very Harsh, Bob and Monise. There isn’t much to talk about since most of the races are already wrapped up. At least he is trying. The article is not bad.
Supporting Actor: Cristopher Waltz
Supporting Actress: Anna Kendrick
Actor: Jeremy Renner
Actress: Meryl Streep
I honestly think Jeremy Renner deserves best actor. His performance in “The Hurt Locker” was mesmerizing.
Agree. I’m firmly in the “Jeremy Renner for best actor oscar” camp, even though I’m sure it’ll never happen. I’ll be good with “The Hurt Locker” winning best picture, though, because at least it’s a 1/2 nod to Renner, Mackie and all the other guys who made that movie awesome. If Avatar wins…(sad sigh)
Agreed Elena. And trust me, there’s more time between the noms and awards this year so although an experienced pundit like the author of this blog may THINK it’s a sure thing, but everyone and their dog said last year that Rourke was going to take it. He had the buzz from the noms, noone thought differently and BOOM, Penn took it. Plus, there’s a thing called overkill too and that nearly happened to the, imho, overrated Slumdog last year. Had there been another week or two between noms and voting, Slumdog could have been knocked down.
So don’t count anything out yet, and the voters may just get sick of hearing about how it’s a lock and say “Yeah, I got your lock for you right here”.
I can’t say Bridges doesn’t deserve it, because he does. He’s a great actor and from what I hear, a great guy too. But Jeremy’s performance, while it didn’t surprise me because I’ve been a fan for a long time, deserves that statue too.
this is EXACTLY how i want the categories to go like. but sadly, my only real hope lies with Christoph
Anything could happen, Dave! That’s what makes it worth watching.
Still time to vote in my Oscar poll. Find the site link via my Twitter: Entertainment2u
No chance of a career capper for Christopher Plummer? I thought Juliette Binoche over Lauren Bacall was one of the biggest shockers.
I don’t think anybody was expecting that. That was a shocker. Did you see the look on Lauren Bacall’s face?
And like this year, everyone and their dog said Bacall would take it that year. So while it’s rare, never say never.
I’m guilty of sitting down to the Oscars each year hoping for the odd (good)surprise! But with the actors races all but over except for the ongoing debate on Streep v Bullock, you may be right..we’ll just have to settle for the surprises coming in from the “minor” categories (Go, “Paris 36″ for original song.)
But…doesn’t anyone think there might be a teeny bit of a contest in Adapted Screenplay with the inclusion of District and In the Loop to the mix?
sorry but Jeremy Renner is certainly not “No. 2 in the Best Actor derby”. George Clooney is. Bridges and Clooney were the only ones who seem to receive awards and accolades for “best actor” during those past weeks, with a small exception for Morgan Freeman. Half the times, Jeremy Renner was not even mentionned at all amongst the usual suspects which were Bridges, Clooney, Freeman and Firth. If Jeff Bridges will probably be the winner on 7th march, his category doesn’t seem to be a done deal yet, far from it. Unlike best supporting actors.
Bridges is a done deal. After a long respected career, this will be his first win. He has too much goodwill not to win. Even if he didn’t deserve it this year, he still would have won. Standing ovation at the Globes and SAG said it all.
I have to agree — unless the audience needed a stretch break after the long awards show(s), Bridges got the most audience love at the NY Critics, SAG and Golden Globes. Remember that it is actors voting for actors — BUT I am still keeping my fingers crossed that Colin Firth pulls off and upset.
I kind of feel bad for Jeremy Renner having to be nominated in the same year as Bridges. I think Bridges will win for the reasons mentioned, but Jeremy Renner’s performance was the best, imo.
I do not understand George Clooney’s nomination at all, so I strongly disagree that he’s the “second” runner. I don’t think he’s a decent or versatile actor at all.
Renner won Best Actor from the National Society of Film Critics and he’s been mentioned for quite a while. He was part of the lineup even before Bridges came into the picture.
Heck yeah he is! And his nomination is the very reason why more like him need to be nominated. Yes, Bridges, Clooney, Freeman have established careers and respect in Hollywood and they earned it. But Renner is a true, undiscovered gem in Hollywood, totally underappreciated for the talent he has. He’s the guy that consistantly turns in great performances that get passed by come awards season for the marquee names. And even if he doesn’t win, this will be the case where the nomination IS the win for him because it will (PLEASE GOD) FINALLY push him into the same stratosphere as the others. I just want him to win because a) it will shock the hell out of everyone, not because he doesn’t deserve it but because not many knew who he was before this and b) I just adore this man.
My thoughts exactly. Been a big fan of his for a long time. I’m thrilled about this movie and the nomination because, even without a win, he will hopefully be getting more opportunities for mainstream movies.
I know it won’t happen, but I’m still going to pull for an upset win for Colin Firth. I think he gave the best performance of the year.
Agreed. As excellent as the others were he seemed to bring the most to the table, especially considering how thin that movie was.
In total agreement about Colin Firth. He was spectacular!
And let’s not forget that, while most of his film credits are in areas outside of Oscarbait “prestige” films, that he has also been in the business for a while and is also a widely recognized persona.
Colin Firth = Adrien Brody ?
I hope so!
it is possible for there to be a tie…it has happened before with Katherine Hepburn and Barbra Streisand.
I think I read somewhere that it wasn’t actually a try tie, that Hepburn had one more vote but that it was felt they were close enough and have since said they would never do that again, that a tie would have to be exact.
Meryl Streep will surely win. She is more than overdue, and way more deserving, way MORE!
She has 2 Oscars. She isn’t overdue for anything.
Sandra will win karlaT!
ugh, please tell me Sandra isnt winning this, that was SUCH AVERAGE performance
I think the Best Actress contest is a real race, as much as Best Picture and Original Screenplay. George Clooney is number two behind Jeff Bridges, not Jeremy Renner.
I doubt it – Clooney already has an Oscar, and the Academy likes to share the wealth. I’d say if anybody is between Renner and Bridges, it’s Colin Firth. He’s never been nominated, and with Julianne Moore snubbed, it’s the only nomination for ‘A Single Man.’
Carey Mulligan for Best Actress!
YES! Carey Mulligan!
Like it or not, Oscar almost ALWAYS goes for young & sexy in the Best Actress race (see past winners Gwyneth Paltrow, Halle Berry, Charlize Theron, Reese Witherspoon, Marion Cotillard, etc. One exception, youth-wise: Helen Mirren). This is why I think you might be on to something with Mulligan, despite what this article suggests.
Except Halle & Charlize went down and out for their wins, Marion played a drug addict and Gwyneth had the Weinsteins. The Academy digs physical transformation and, this year, the contender who has most referenced their external appearance is… Sandra Bullock. Also see: Erin Brockovich.
Dave, you are such a polite and diplomatic soul! I appreciate hearing the latest word or feeling the pulse on that is going on, especially as I live in Sydney. As a former media person, myself, I know how outlets have to beat up stories and pose conundrums just to keep people hooked and buying their fodder. I’m with you: Bridges, Mo’Nique and Waltz feel good to go. I would love you to report that Meryl is poised, cos I’m hearing a whole lot of Sandra and it is bringing out the worst in people. Are you currently sensing a Streep win or a Bullock victory? Director seems easy – Bigelow for sure, and the 10 preferential voting fiasco could go any which way (for me one of two ways The Hurt Locker or Up)
Cheers, Mr Karger