In honor of both Valentine’s Day and the President’s Day three-day weekend, Hollywood has programmed three films for three distinct audiences. But let’s be clear: Valentine’s Day from veteran director Garry Marshall is driving the pack and should do at least $50 million for the four-day frame. If it’s successful, which it’s destined to be, expect to see a whole lot more movies where A-list actors work in a large ensemble cast for only a few days for reduced pay. It’s one easy way to earn a living.
Competing for those holiday box-office dollars this weekend is Universal’s R-rated horror film The Wolfman with Benicio Del Toro, Anthony Hopkins, and Emily Blunt. The film has had a bit of a troubled past so it will be interesting to see if that keeps audiences from checking out Del Toro going lycan. For kids, Fox is trying to capitalize on the Harry Potter franchise, by partnering The Sorcerer’s Stone director Christopher Columbus with another popular book series: Percy Jackson and the Olympians. With three big titles hitting the marketplace, expect this frame to be a big one at the box office. Read on for my four-day predictions.
1. Valentine’s Day: $50 million
Warner Bros. spent only $14.5 million on the cast of this film. That’s pretty impressive considering names like Julia Roberts, Jamie Foxx, Bradley Cooper, Taylor Lautner ,and Jennifer Garner don the marquee. And because they made it multi-generational: Shirley Maclaine and Hector Elizondo have relationship issues as much as Lautner and Taylor Swift do, the audience range on the film should run from teenage to AARP.
2. The Wolfman: $35 million
Reviews have not been kind to this horror flick. But I don’t think it’s enough to stop audiences from showing up to this Victorian-era thriller. The film should get beyond the $30 million mark for the four days on its R-rating alone. How it fares over the coming weeks will likely be a bigger challenge.
3. Percy Jackson and The Olympians: The Lightning Thief: $30 million
An engaging story based on the popular book series by Rick Riordan, Percy has a lot going for it. From the cute Logan Lerman in the lead to a cast of Greek Gods that include Uma Thurman, Pierce Brosnan, Rosario Dawson, and Steve Coogan, the filmmakers seemed to have fun putting this film together. And with the dearth of family product in the marketplace, it’s likely to fare well with audiences. And reviews overall have been solid. There just seems to be missing any real excitement considering all this began as a beloved book.
4. Avatar: $22 million
Avatar’s four-day should match something close to it’s three-day last weekend as it holds on to those 3-D screens as long as it can.
5. Dear John: $15 milion
This movie may have dethroned Avatar last weekend but that distinction isn’t going to get it very far. The film is going to be crushed this frame by the Valentine’s Day juggernaut. If it drops 50% it should consider itself lucky.
Photo Credit: Ron Batzdorff
“VD” is like a stew that doesn’t taste good but you eat anyway because you don’t want to eat leftovers.
I respectively disagree with your stew comment. Stew reminds me of poo, when this movie reminds me of roast pork.
I am looking forward to seeing “VD” and I hope you Mr. Peckerwood “Phattie” grow up and start eating leftovers! Every night people in this country go to sleep hungry and you are saying you are too good for leftovers!
Maybe one day you will lay off the phatties and start caring for your community, you Greaseball!!
This looks good
Phattie you remind me of a “VD” a MoFo venereal disease!!!
Why are you so hung up on stew. I dropped some stew in my pants, does that mean? I am looking forward to this flick.
Is it possible to come up with a different way to describe “Valentine’s Day” than “VD”?
Sure. You can call it, “Love Actually Wannabe,” “Hot Mess,” “Pretentious Madness That Is Practially Sagging With How Many Actors Are In It.”
@Smoked Irishman
My garbage disposal eats all my leftovers…..plus whats your deal with poo is it an Irish thing??
@dgh
You are a horrible person for throwing away your leftovers.
Every morning I stare at my poo to remind me of how fortunate I was yesterday that I was able to eat.
I’d rather get VD than see this movie.
Call me, I got what you want.
I think Dear John will win the weekend. I am in love with Channing Tatum.
I hope I can see Valentine’s Day without getting thrown out of the theater for playing with myself. But I doubt it…
Hey douche, it’s not funny anymore. Some of us on here like reading what certain people have to say. Pick a name and use it but don’t ruin someone else’s name. You need to grow up.
not cool: I’m confused??
To Joe: some jerk is pretending to be Ambient Lite.
Joe, if you haven’t been a regular follower of commentary on EW then you might not know that there are douches out there who use other peoples names to say really inappropriate things. I like to think that from reading AL’s posts that she most certaintly did not say that.
Linda! How can you possibly know this? There are so many weirdos and fools mixed in here with us! Maybe Ambient is not feeling him/herself today! Use your head and stay on topic! That said, I will be seeing “The Wolfman”!!
To Blue Silver: Yes, you can never know who is who but I agree with “Not Cool” on this. I don’t believe Ambient will write something like that. With that being said, I will finally be seeing Avatar.
Linda. Does the word ‘Duh’ mean anything to you! Unless you know Ambient personally, I’d say reserve your judgment. For the past couple of weeks I’ve noticed Ambient attacking and bullying many people on this board for just simply chiming in with their opinions, INCLUDING myself. So no, I don’t believe it’s someone else. That’s why I’m putting my 2cents here. You should get with the program and let things be!!!!
Added bonus of the Percy Olympian movie: Boromir!
i think that dear john and valentines day will compete for a lot of the same audience and that percy jackson will do better than projected making it close between vd and pj for the win
I can’t believe people are going to go see this mess. It looks so stupid. I feel sorry for the guys that get dragged to this.
I agree. VD looks awful! Ashton Kutcher alone will bring down this movie.
hmmmm I don’t think that Wolfman will do very well. I’m predicting that it’s gonna be Percy vs VD, but that VD will edge it out
Let’s not abbreviate Valentine’s Day like that. The phrase “VD will edge it out” makes me uncomfortable.
So excited
With an all star cast (too many too name) VD should appeal to everyone. It does for me. Also for the first time Julia Roberts is working with her nice Emma.
Garry Marshall gets two Roberts for the price of one.
I think Valentine’s Day will do well this weekend but plummet after that. Despite the awesome cast it’s getting some atrocious reviews. I think Percy Jackson will do well with kids out of school Monday and The Wolfman will do well with grown-ups who want some alternate programming. Avatar will hang steady with its 3D/IMAX boost and Dear John will fall off the map. Avatar’s been beating it all week, despite last week’s upset (which probably occurred because Avatar’s demographic was likely at home watching the Super Bowl).
I have a hard time believing the same people who loved Avatar watch football. Maybe there was a WOW tournament going on.
I have many a VD by the way.
106 million people watched the Superbowl. I’m pretty sure that put a bigger dent in Avatar’s grosses than Dear John’s.
Valentine’s Day looks so cheesy.
Valentine’s Day is getting worse reviews on RT than The Wolfman, and yet you only mention The Wolfman’s bad reviews? OK…
On my end, I like Valentine’s Day much better when it was called Love Actually, set in London at Christmas and directed by Richard Curtis.
But Channing cant act! Can we please find a new hollywood star. Tired of these lame actors. We need someone like Clint Eastwoode again.
‘Watch online music videos 24/7 on defSpot com ..music from the 80s to todays hits.’
Can’t act? Did you see GI Joe? Oh wait, that proves your point. Um, carry on.
Go watch “A Guide To Recognizing Your Saints.” Then tell me Tatum can’t act.
It has less to do with his abilities than it has to do with the fact that the projects he chooses usually aren’t fantastic.
“Valentine’s Day” seems to be this year’s “He’s Just Not That Into You”, based on the previews! My respect to those who will see this but I’ll be seeing “The Wolfman”!!
Sad that Bradley Cooper seems to have decided to appear in every crappy movie that he is offered. Take the money and run?
Brad did this before ‘Hangover’ took off. Had no choice.
VD will spread quickly like the contagious, laugh infected yuckfest it is. hilarious movie, i loved it!