Image Credit: Abbott GenserBruce Willis and Tracy Morgan pairing up for a buddy comedy flick from director Kevin Smith seems like a good idea on paper. But with reviews for Cop Out stuck in the terrible category, this Warner Bros. flick is going to have to actually fight to land the number one slot. It’s not going to help that the Martin Scorsese-Leonardo DiCaprio thriller Shutter Island opened to over $40 million last weekend and should hold on to at least 50% of its gross for its sophomore session. The other new wide release looking for its share of box-office coin is the remake of 1973′s The Crazies, starring Timothy Olyphant and Radha Mitchell. Also interesting this frame is Avatar’s box office performance. Sure the movie has made more than any other in box-office history but this weekend really marks its last official frame in 3-D. The film has had ten weekends all to itself but while Fox tries to fight for 3-D screens, its going to have a tough battle when Disney’s Alice in Wonderland opens next weekend. Read on for my predictions.
1. Shutter Island: $20 million
Shutter Island marks Scorsese and DiCaprio’s most successful opening weekend. How that translates into its second frame is still up for grabs. While reviews for the movie were strong, Cinemscore’s exit scoring was poor at a C+. Still it’s the film with the biggest pedigree in the marketplace right now and it’s likely that it will hold on to the top slot for the weekend.
2. Cop Out: $18 million
Smith’s last outing Zach and Miri Make a Porno opened to a dismal $10 million so Cop Out should be considered a big success in contrast. While the film is an homage to the popular interracial buddy cop films of the ’80s this film seems to confirm that the genre is dead for a reason. There hasn’t been a comedy in theaters for some time so this one could prove to be successful but that will all depend on the audience and what their fickle moods’ demand.
3. The Crazies: $16 million
Audiences have loved all the preview materials the studio has been offering, and a fresh horror film in the market now could do well. This one, from director Breck Eisner, has the potential to work. We’ll see what happens this weekend.
4. Avatar: $11 million
Its tally as of Wednesday is at $691 million, meaning it will definitely cross $700 million this weekend. If you want to see it on 3-D again, go now. (Last weekend 95% of its gross came from 3-D theaters.) Fox is going to try to hold onto as many 3-D screens as possible going into Oscar weekend and the opening of Alice in Wonderland but theaters are expecting big things from Disney and may not be willing to keep many for the film that arguably must be nearing the end of its theatrical run.
5. Valentine’s Day: $7 million
Expect at least a 60% drop this weekend for the star-studded movie that’s grossed almost $90 million in two weeks of release. It’s not good but if you want to see so many stars in one place, and can’t wait for the Oscar telecast next weekend, Valentine’s Day may be the best place to go.
On Avatar (Last weekend 95% of its gross came from 3-D theaters.)
This is what I told people, ticket prices is why it broke the record, not because it was a good movie. Pretty CGI but the story line was weak
Yeah, because a $500 million dollar gross would have been poor. Keep trumping the truly horrible “Valentine’s Day”.
People who say that the only reason Avatar broke records is because the ticket prices are higher have no common sense. Think about it for a second, if the movie was complete crap like other 3D releases(My Bloody Valentine, Final Destination) no one would have gone to see it and it would not have made any money. Avatar’s success proves that if you make a good movie people will pay any price to see it, not once but twice or more times. It broke records because it was a phenomenal movie and audiences are willing to pay more, if the ticket prices were less, im sure it would have still broken records. I would go and rethink your theory!
I would go and rethink your theory again. If the movie was offered in ONLY 2D it would have a domestic take of 450 million or so. So yeah, it wouldn’t have broken records. Plus, a bunch of people wanted to see it only for the 3D so if they never had 3D they would’ve never saw it.
If Avatar didn’t have 3D it would struggle to cross 300 million
There’s really no way of knowing how well it would’ve done without 3D. It may have made a ton of money, or it could have bombed. But saying with such certainty that people wouldn’t have seen it without 3D is silly. You. Don’t. Know. No one does.
I will say that just being Cameron’s new film would’ve given it a huge boost.
Of course, the other option is that people standards are so low that they will make movies like “Avatar” and “Valentine’s Day” super mega-hits, even when it’s quite obvious they don’t deserve the popular appeal. McDonald’s may sell more sandwiches than Subway, that doesn’t mean McDonald’s sells a better quality product.
That’s deep Marcus. I’m just going to meditate on that for a while.
i went and saw avatar three times i loved it my kids loved it.
and everyone would hav still watched the movie just maybe not two or more times. to all the haters that think that it was a crappy movie u must not of watched it or your just hateful
What a dumb thing to say. I didn’t realize that people were forced at gunpoint to see it in 3D. My theater offered SEVERAL 2D showings, and those only decreased because people WANTED TO SEE IT IN 3D. That’s where the demand is. People are willing to pay for it.
I take it you assume that ANY movie in 3D would have made what Avatar did? Oh, wait, there HAVE been other 3D releases and none of them have come anywhere close to what Avatar has made. Gee, I wonder why…
Also, there are far more 2D screens than 3D screens. Most of Avatar’s 2D screens have been taken away for newer films, but because no 3D movies have come out, it’s been able to retain most of its 3D screens. Hence — DUH! — why it’s made most of its money last week from 3D. It’s really only let on 3D screens because 1. that’s where the demand is and 2. newer films have taken over its 2D screens. It’s not rocket science.
Avatar’s probably going to top out at between $750M-$800M. Even if you take away the 3D/IMAX cushion, it will still have made an incredible amount of money.
I’m getting sick of people grasping at straws trying to downplay this film’s financial success. It’s pathetic and their arguments are either stale or fallacious or both.
You sound like an idiot. Avatar has grossed more than 2 billion dollars worldwide because people are going back multiple times. Your theory makes no sense at all. Why is it hard for you to accept that the majority of people who have seen Avatar love it? More importantly you clearly have no taste.
Nerwen thinks that both Valentine’s Day and Twilight are high art, thus negating any opinion she has about anything, ever.
Thank you Nerdwen for repeating this post week after week.
Nerwen.
You are pathetic. You comment on this site about everything. You think anyone respects you?
Give it a rest. You’re a joke.
Nerwen Aldarion, Everyone knows the box office gross does not measure the quality of the film. So your opinion about the film is totally irrelevant, and based on your comment you should already know this information. So STFU!
I think its gonna be a tie for 1st
Cop Out is horrible and will be lucky to make back Kevin Smith’s lunch expenses.
The Crazies should open with more money. Early congrats to Avatar for making that much money, you’ll in the bottom five once you lose all the 3D screens.
You’ll be in the bottom five once Alice in Wonderland opens.
You know Jose, I plan on seeing Alice in Wonderland in IMAX 3D, and I will pay more for the ticket and it will probably be really great but I won’t be drawn to seeing it THREE TIMES like I was with Avatar. I haven’t seen a movie more than once in a theater since Nemo (loved it!)
Crazies will open to over 30 million. just watch. Shutter Island will grab 21 and Cop Out will flop with 12 million
AGREE.
The crazies is actually at 83% on rottentomatoes, which is fantastic considering its a horror movie.
And a remake too! The last great horror movie remake was also a Romero movie.
yeah!
The Crazies will beat Cop Out by a wide margin, no doubt about it.
no it won’t
I dunno about that Nathan. I think that The Crazies might hold better because of its quality, but it won’t necessarily open bigger. I see $19 million for Cop Out and $15 million for The Crazies.
The bottom five of what, exactly?
the box office chart.
I think Shutter Island will hold slightly better and could make closer to $25. I also don’t see Cop Out making anywhere near $18 million. I think it will depend on whether people realize it’s a Kevin Smith movie. The more that’s known, the lower the gross.
I’m a huge Kevin Smith fan (in both senses, haven’t gotten kicked off a plane yet though), but Cop Out looks really bad. I’ll be checking out The Crazies this weekend. If I have any extra time, I might break down and see Cop Out, or at least buy a ticket for it and see something else. Hey, I’ve gotta help put Harley through college.
I think The Crazies is gonna do way better than that. The media always underestimates horror movies like this.
I am seeing Cop Out on Saturday but I believe The Crazies will be big this weekend!!! If I was a Horror fan then I would go see that movie!!
C+ is about the average review for Shutter Island, so hey critics and audiences agree.
It received a Rotten Tomatoes score of about 70%, which definitely signals that it received overall positive reviews, like Nicole has said here.
Yeah, 70 is a C. And it got a 67 with a 66 average, which is a lower C. On MC it got a 62, which is also a C.
I do not see how “reviews for the movie were strong, Cinemscore’s exit scoring was poor at a C+” makes sense.
i think there will be one last final push for Avatar, and its very possible the movie will end up at just under 20 million again for the weekend and a second place spot, just for the simple fact people are very aware of the fact that it will be on far fewer 3D and Imax screens after next friday.
so dont underestimate that effect for this weekend.