Image Credit: Gabriel Bouys/AFP/Getty ImagesWith the Academy Awards dust now settled, let’s take a step back and look at the three biggest lessons learned from this year’s Oscar winners and losers, shall we?
Lesson One: Listen to the Guilds I can’t recall another year where the guild awards matched so consistently with the Oscars. Look at SAG, for instance. 19 of the 20 SAG individual acting nominees repeated at the Oscars, and all four individual winners did as well. The Directors Guild matched five-for-five and Kathryn Bigelow won both. And the Producers Guild predicted eight of the 10 Best Picture nominees, while The Hurt Locker won both prizes. The only major guild that was inconsistent with the Oscars was the Writers Guild, but that was mainly because of their pointless eligibility requirements. But while The Hurt Locker won the WGA and the Oscar for original screenplay, Precious took home the adapted screenplay Oscar after losing the WGA to Up in the Air. Which brings us to…
Lesson Two: Deportment Matters (Usually) Geoffrey Fletcher wrote an amazing script for Precious and is very deserving of his surprise win. But I’m convinced that it was the clear discomfort between Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, who were co-credited on Up in the Air after an arbitration battle despite never working together, that cost them the Oscar. With each Up in the Air screenplay victory—at the Globes, Broadcast Critics, WGA, or BAFTA—the whole situation appeared more and more awkward. And in a close race, that made a difference, especially when Reitman and Turner’s main competition was a single writer, not a team. Similarly, I think it can be assumed that James Cameron’s polarizing persona cost Avatar some votes in the big races. But if anyone had a problem with Mo’Nique’s unique campaign style, it didn’t matter at all. Locks are locks, even with a little bad press.
Lesson Three: Without Writing and Acting, You Can’t Win I’ve been asked several times since Sunday why Avatar couldn’t win Best Picture despite its massive gross and industry-changing status. And my answer is, look at the nominations. Avatar may have had nine nods, but it didn’t have any in the screenplay or acting races. Now, it’s possible to win Best Picture without any acting nominations (Slumdog Millionaire, Braveheart) or, more rarely, without a screenplay nod (Titanic). But in the last 78 years, no movie has been able to win without either one. In retrospect, maybe we were silly to think Avatar even had a shot.
I always thought the thought of film winning without being considered one of the top 10 screenplays was absurd. I didn’t rule out Avatar, but it struck me as counter-intuitive. Screenplay is the most important part. Without it, you’re nothing. Certainly not best picture.
Agreed. Having finally watched Avatar a few weeks ago and noticing how obviously ‘meh’ it was in terms of story, acting, writing, I wondered how much of the ‘race’ for best picture was media manufactured, which sort of makes me wonder how Oscar voters, whom must have read many of the same articles I had, may have voted thinking that if they wanted their vote to count they had to choose between Avatar and The Hurt Locker.
The WHAT Locker? That’s what people will be thinking in 10 years. Several other films will be considered future classics (Basterds, District 9, Up, Avatar), but not Locker. Forgotten in time like so many other Oscar winners.
Why were the guests associated with “Precious” stuffed up against a side wall at the Oscars? They were close to the front but off to the side. They REALLY should have been closer to the center of the action. Gabby was a best actress nominee and she was nowhere near her fellow nominees.
I gave Avatar an A for effects and a C- for story. To win the Best Picture award for that kind of mark would have been pathetic. On the other hand, I totally agree that it is a game changer. We won’t remember Hurt Locker, but we will remember Avatar as the harbinger of the new wave of movies.
I agree as well. Screenplay, to me, is the one of the most important parts of a movie, if not the most important. I don’t want to see a movie that has bad writing or a bad plot. I can see how a movie can win Best Picture without winning Best Screenplay, if it’s at least nominated (because there are other factors towards a best picture), but if it’s not even nominated, that’s another story.
Disagree, Kevin. Think The Hurt Locker is an important film about Iraq and it will stand for all time as a witness to our botched efforts in that country. Just as Apocalypse Now is the narrative for Vietnam. The H Locker is a difficult film to watch, I truthfully avoided some of the particularly scary/violent parts, but I admire it immensely for it’s message: war is a drug. Avatar will be remembered for various reasons, but as the technology is perfected, it may be seen one day as a glorious antique, but loved nevertheless.
Kevin, seriously? What film from 1997 is still watched by anybody? Titanic or LA Confidential. Nobody, I mean nobody watches Titanic anymore. Once the technology of Avatar wears off, nobody will pay attention to it anymore. Hurt Locker will still be remembered when the childish nonsense that is Avatar is long forgotten.
I would imagine they do. Certainly, at least as much as they watch “LA Confidential”.
Ha, I just watched Titanic the other day and fell in love with it all over again. Whatever dude.
In 2007, AFI listed “Titanic” as one of their additions to the all time greatest films list. In 2008, EW selected it as their #3 new classic.
And thanks again to Dave for another great year of Oscar coverage!
Lesson #4: If it’s sci-fi, it will probably be undervalued in awards season. I think Zoe Saldana did a great job in Avatar, Sharlto Copley was wonderful in District 9, & Star Trek should have been nominated for Best Picture. But if it’s sci-fi, it’s going to take a helluva lot to get the Academy or the Guilds to vote for it.
Agree on all counts.
Yes, exactly. And animation, don’t forget animation.
Actually, Up did very well, and like many years before, animation has won more than just their own award. But as for Best Picture…
Maybe next year.
Avatar should have won.
except not
Avatar had no business winning best picture. I think Inglorious Basterds was second behind The Hurt Locker, which was a much better movie than Avatar. Avatar was average at best, even with the special effects. Enough with Avatar, it wasn’t that great!!!!!
It was AMAZING!! And, yes, it should have won.
Except for the academy had the good sense not to award it.
That was the first thing I said upon Avatar winning at the GG. A great movie is about the brilliant execution of a brilliant story. How can you say it’s best picture when no one feels that way about the story OR the execution?
well said
Not well said.
Kevin Malone is an avaturd stinking up EW.
I thought the surprised win by Geoffrey Fletcher was well deserving because he was so stunned & speechless. The underdog won against the favorite. Plus he was so adorable trying to come up with words of gratitude. It was such a sincere moment. Ahh..onto next year’s crop of films.
Me too. I thought Precious had a better script than Up in the Air.
And even though Geoffrey Fletcher’s speech wasn’t the best of the nigh, he really did look and sound really shocked and…I can’t wait to see his future work!
Another Lesson: Can we stop paying so much attention to the Golden Globe Awards? The Hollywood Foreign Press Association is a joke. They were the only group that gave Best Picture and Best Director to AVATAR, which fed into the hype surrounding that movie’s Oscar chances. On the other hand, in a typical year, Best Picture would have been a foregone conclusion after the DGA and PGA both anointed HURT LOCKER. But this was not a typical year because of the expanded Best Picture list and the new voting procedure. Nobody really knew what would happen as a result, and many people thought AVATAR would win under the new system that supposedly was designed to boost the chances of mainstream blockbusters in the Oscar race.
So true. If you look at the Globe’s recent trajectory, they’ve been startlingly off from what actually won at the Oscars (Avatar, Atonement, Babel, Brokeback, The Aviator) They are 1/6 for the last 6 years.
Yes, but Brokeback should have won
That’s true, Elle, about Brokeback…and I think Babel is better than The Departed. But my point is that the Golden Globes are probably less predictive of the Oscars than, say, the Critics’ Choice Awards if you look at the recent track record.
Maybe, less attention to them as Oscar predictors. But for what it’s worth, they have gotten some things right. “Brokeback Mountain.” Several groups have come up with “Best of the Decade” films and “Sideways” comes up, whereas “Million Dollar Baby” does not.
Atonement should have won.
Intersting poitn to bring up. Did Avatar really even have a shot in the first place of winng, not getting nomiantated for writing or acting. Inglourios Basterds in a way had a better shot.
Another Lesson: Until Meryl Streep pulls another Sophie’s Choice out of her hat, she will continue to keep losing Oscar’s to great actresses (Helen Mirren) and not-so-great ones (Sandra Bullock)…
Streep will continue to rack up nominations but I think she’ll need to be in a movie that gets a best Picture nomination, Best Director and lot of others before she wins another. She had that with Out of Africa but that was still during the “too soon to get a 3rd Oscar” period. As soon as she’s in a bonified contender for BP, she’ll be a lock for best Actress and Oscar #3
This is exactly what I think. Meryl is without a doubt the best living actress, but she’s been in very few truly great films. Which just goes to prove how good she is in the first place, but it is holding her back from the third win.
I think somehow Meryl will find a way to win both Best Actress and Supporting Actress in one year, just get two more Oscars out of the way in one night, giving her the total she deserves. Regardless of awards, she’s the greatest movie actress ever. (But she should’ve won for Adaptation, Devil Wears Prada, and Julie & Julia among others.)
She brought Julia Child to the screen beautifully. It was so entertaining, no one could have done it better.
Sandra bullock is a great actress and there might not ever be another time to reward her. Listen — she holds the current record of a female led movie making over 250 million and counting and the highest grossing romantic comedy EVER — all in the same year. If she is not a great actress, audiences would not pay to see her over and over again. Don’t knock Sandra. Meryl will win again
Every part of what you just said, makes me go “huh??”
Are you actually saying that Sandra Bullock is a better actress than Meryl Streep? (She’s just not.)
Or implying that because Meryl has won before she shouldn’t win this time, but rather give someone else a turn? (It doesn’t work like that.)
Or saying because tons of people go see Sandra’s movies that that means she’s deserving of the award? (All I can say to that is that I and every female I know have seen Dirty Dancing hundreds of times, but none of us are lamenting Jennifer Gray and Patrick Swayze missing out on winning awards for their ‘performances’.)
Ambient Life…it kind of does work like that unfortunately. The politics is crazy whether it be about race or sex or age. Meryl has been nominated 16 times and has won twice (right?). The Blind Side wasn’t even that good and For Sandra it was sort of “if she doesn’t get it this time she never will” story. But you are right, Meryl is a great actress and I loved her in Julie and Julia, her next time will come.
Wills, I hope you’re right about Streep. I was torn. I though Meryl was great as Julia Child, but wanted to Sandra to win because there’s a good chance she won’t be nominated again. I think people assume Meryl has won a ton of Oscars because she’s nominated all the time. But she’s only won two. I hope her time will come again. That it’s an honor just to be nominated line must be getting old to her by now.
Avatar was a beautiful movie visually, but let’s face it the screenplay was the weak link…the story was dumbed down and oversimplified. It’s earned a gazillion dollars, but the story and dialogue were just OK.
I still say Inglorious Basterds should have won — it did win the SAG up against the hurt locker. I think more people were simply more moved by Precious than Up in the air. The hurt locker winning over inglorious Basterds is so ridiculous — compare the scripts side by side — Basterds has so much more complexity. Did Harvey actually hurt basterds than help?
No… I think Inglorious Basterds sucking hurt Inglorious Basterds. While not my LEAST favorite Tarantino film, its nowhere near as good as his early work (Pulp Fiction, Jackie Brown, Reservoir Dogs.) I personally could not take the movie serious with Pitt chewing up the scenery and Laurent’s unbelievable performance as a vengeful Jew – among other problems… like the long period of boredom in the movie.
Totally agree. Tarantino doesn’t do a great job at timing a scene, which is a very important part of directing. Every scene in IB felt 5 minutes longer than it needed to be.
Basterds was 2 hours of American troops committing war crimes. The Best Supporting Actor Oscar was well deserved, but was the only reason to watch the movie.
I just want to add that I agree on all the above-mentioned points about the Golden Globes. They are usually so wrong! After watching the absolutely wretched “Happy Go Lucky” a few weeks ago, I will never trust the Golden Globes voters again!
Maybe I remember them being more unpredictable in the 90s because I was a kid and didn’t have the internet readily available to tell me which movie or actor won which little critics’ awards before the Oscars, but it just seems so boring and anti-climactic to watch the Oscars. I think the Cannes work so much better because its a small distinguished panel that changes each year. (While the Academy in recent years has invited just anybody into the AMPAS.)
Jon Landeau is still not a member.
Yeah, okay, but remember William Goldman, “no one knows anything” rule about Hollywood. In a different year, every one of your lessons could be just the opposite. But really, it is now almost 51 weeks until the academy awards. I think it’s time to take down the oscar watch.
I never doubted The Hurt Locker’s chance one bit. I always felt that the possibility of an Avatar or IB win was more about trying to get an audience for the show. There was no evidence that either had a legitimate shot at BP. In fact, given the wins in other categories, I bet that Precious was closer to a BP win than IB and possibly Avatar. So many people have said that guild awards don’t matter but they do.