Image Credit: David ApplebyRobin Hood may have picked the worst weekend of the summer to premiere. The 12th century-set English tale of the man who stole from the rich to give to the poor has the inauspicious task of going up against the second weekend of Iron Man 2. Both films target the male audience. Both films are actioners. Both films could be the winning choice for a date night flick. Robin Hood, another Ridley Scott-Russell Crowe pairing, does have one thing going for it: Its core audience of older men are not likely heading to the theaters for Iron Man. But they are also the audience most influenced by reviews, and the response to Robin Hood has been mixed. Most likely, the Universal Pictures movie will underperform stateside, but will more than make up for it internationally. As you can probably tell from its world premiere at the Cannes Film Festival, Universal is banking on its international gross dominating. And Robin Hood has already grossed $6 million in three countries — France, Belgium, and the French-speaking side of Switzerland — since the film’s May 12 release in the areas. (The studio will open the movie in over 50 international territories this weekend.)
Also opening this frame is the Amanda Seyfried-starrer Letters to Juliet. Summit Entertainment’s bit of counter-programming should lure in the teen girls and perhaps their mothers, while Fox Searchlight is testing the star power of Queen Latifah and the rapper Common in Just Wright. Check out our predictions below.
1. Iron Man 2: $60 million
Since bowing to $128 million, the Marvel sequel has earned another $17 million in just two days of weekday grosses. And internationally, the film has done crazy business putting its total worldwide take at over $345 million. There is no way the film can’t fall a good amount since its big opening last weekend. And considering Robin Hood is around to take away some of their cash, expect at least a 50 percent drop for the weekend.
2. Robin Hood: $32 million
This movie is reminding me of Michael Mann’s Public Enemies from last summer. It features a high-caliber director, a big star, and is a serious period drama. It also doesn’t feel much different than previous Crowe-Scott pairings. That being said, men love a good old-fashioned actioner and Crowe has the gravitas to deliver in the role. It just doesn’t look like its going to do much beyond the older adult audience.
3. Letters to Juliet: $16 million
Tween girls seem to be into this Tuscan-set romance. And they may be able to lure their mothers to the theaters, what with Vanessa Redgrave’s poignant performance in the film. Summit Entertainment is really high on the movie, screening it for exhibitors back in March at ShoWest. But with such a crowded marketplace, the movie will no doubt be hampered by other films in theaters this weekend.
4. Just Wright: $8 million
Queen Latifah’s last starring role for Fox was 2004′s comedy Taxi opposite Jimmy Fallon. That bowed to $12 million. This will be lucky to get to that level. Early reviews have not been very kind, but perhaps fans of rap star Common will help this movie generate some dollars. I wouldn’t expect anything more than single digits, though, and with the movie opening in 1,800 theaters, the studio probably doesn’t either.
5. How to Train Your Dragon: $4 million
With only one more week before Shrek 4 barrels into theaters, How to Train Your Dragon better gobble up its final dollars. The film’s domestic gross now stands at $201 million and is likely to drop another 40 percent this frame. Still that’s one solid debut for an original animated title.
I don’t know anyone that is excited to see the Robin Hood movie.
Exactly. It looks like Gladiator 2.
Gladiator in Tights.
how come mainstream weeklies are so vanilla and seem to show pics and stories about the same boring people week after week, year in year out. there is practically zero diversity color wise on `lost` and other shows. there is practically zero in weeklies as well. people magazine is atrocious. may be it should rename itself `white people` just sayin
Lost has several minority characters.
and they brutally killed them all!
Not dead: Jorge Garcia (Hugo), Ken Leung (Miles), Nestor Carbonell (Richard)… not sure about L. Scott Caldwell (Rose), her fate is unknown. Also as far i know Michelle Rodriguez will have cameo (although her character is dead on island). I would even say that “Lost” is one of the few shows that has this much diversity.
Lost is the worst example you could have chosen, as it has several minority characters. And who the heck says “mainstream weeklies”? Are you from the 1920s?
I don’t think Robin Hood is even going to do $32 Million. I’m thinking more like $16 or $17 million. i don’t know of anyone that really wants to go see that movie and it looks so much like everything else that Russel Crowe has been in.
I’m planning to see Robin Hood, but only because I LOVE the story and medieval English history. I’m not expecting much; I just want to see what they do with it. And I don’t really imagine anyone with only a passing interest in the material to be that into it.
I was thinking the same thing. But, I read the article on his radio interview. Crowe is just such a jerk. I guess I can go see the summit movie.
Staying home this weekend.
I saw Robin Hood at an advanced screening event and LOVED IT.
(BTW – I have also seen Iron Man 2, and DID NOT love it).
Wow, none of the new releases look good. Guess I’m going to save up for McGruber next weekend. Oh look, Greenberg is opening up at the local dollar cinema, anyone here recommend it?
I don’t know of anyone who wants to see Robin Hood either, but eh…I’ll probably see it anyway. I think this is the kind of movie that will rape overseas.
I can’t imagine Robin Hood making even the amount of money that you have predicted. It is the typical overblown, dull movie that Crowe makes. His days as a bankable movie star are over.
Iron man wasnt really exciting. It was more for the fan of marvel comics crowd, but it could hold your attention, just not exciting. THis RObin hood does look like his other movies, and the king look like a dud in the commercials. We will see. 30 million but it will fall fast!
I think that LETTERS TO JULIET will do a MAMMA MIA!/DEVIL WEARS PRADA, opening against major action-packed male-skewing films, and still being able not only to not be lost in the shuffle but to become a major hit fueled by female audiences.
I think most of these are overestimations. The buzz on both Iron Man 2 and Robin Hood has been so mixed that I expect a large tumble for the former and a terrible opening for the latter.
No, Iron Man 2 has gotten great buzz. Idiot.
A 57 on Metacritic gives it the same “great buzz” that films like Daybreakers and Sherlock Holmes had. Movie classics, the lot of them.
Sherlock Holmes made $515,645,514 worldwide, most of which was done after it’s opening, holding up like that was due to great word of mouth i.e. Great Buzz! Genius! Also, are you aware that Critics opinions don’t matter anymore? Look at “The Hurt Locker”
I think that “Letters to Juliet” could open up bigger that “Robin Hood” and “Robin Hood” could do worse business than expected. It looks so much like “Gladiator”. “Letters to Juliet” actually does not look that bad and could actually reach young and old audiences with the mix of Amanda Seyfried and Vanessa Redgrave. I’m 35 years old and might see this myself. Hey at least it’s an orginal movie. Most movies coming out lately are eiter remakes or sequels. And I’m getting sick of it.
Sorry about my spelling mistakes. I was in a hurry.
I for one, am excited to see “Robin Hood.” Forget Russell Crowe…I’m excited to see Cate Blanchett in warrior mode. I love everything she does.