Image Credit: Craig BlankenhornWho knew Memorial Day weekend would be your chance to travel to the Middle East? Such is the case with the box office fare Hollywood has provided us this holiday weekend. The weekend’s outcome will be determined by which desert-set film you choose: Go the testosterone action-adventure route and Jake Gyllenhaal’s video game adaptation Prince of Persia wins your vote. Or if you’re in the mood for designer clothes set against an Arabian back drop, choose the Sex and the City girls, who are at it again, this time in Morocco, thinly veiled as Abu Dhabi. Either way, Hollywood is looking for a big weekend to bolster the soft summer start at the movies. Read on for my predictions for the four-day holiday frame.
1. Shrek Forever After: $50 million
The final chapter in the $1 billion franchise didn’t perform as well as its predecessors, but that doesn’t mean Shrek Forever After won’t perform solidly its second weekend in theaters. With young kids aged out of PG-13 rated Prince of Persia, and Sex and the City likely to generate a good chunk of the box office on Thursday night, expect families to dominate the box office this weekend with their first choice Shrek.
2. Sex and the City 2: $45 million
The follow-up to the 2008 smash hit is getting pummeled by critics, but that shouldn’t stop Sex and the City 2 from having a fabulous opening weekend. As one woman said to me, “I didn’t even really like the series but it feels like I’m missing out on a cultural moment if I don’t go.” As sad a reflection on our culture as that may be, Carrie Bradshaw donning couture is now considered a moment for women. As such, women are going to get in there quickly with a Thursday that could go as high as $13 million. The number won’t count into their weekend take, meaning they won’t dominate the charts but the sequel will still wind up grossing close to $60 million over the five-day period.
3. Prince of Persia: $40 million
Earning comparisons to The Mummy franchise and National Treasure, Prince of Persia seems to have the big ol’ escapist fun that moviegoers love during the summer. I don’t think Gyllenhaal will be much of a draw himself, but the high-concept plot based on the popular video game should draw in a wide swath of the movie-going public. With women going to Sex, and families going to Shrek, Persia gets the boys.
4. Iron Man 2: $17 million
The Robert Downey Jr. sequel has grossed over $250 million after three weekends in release. This weekend, expect its drop-off to stabilize with more available moviegoers around. And another $17 million won’t hurt the film’s quest for $300 million at all.
5. Robin Hood: $12 million
Yes, it’s a hit internationally, but this expensive Ridley Scott, Russell Crowe pairing still won’t have crossed the $100 million mark in its third weekend of release. Expect a 30 percent drop-off from the $18 million three-day number last weekend for this frame’s four-day number. Good thing he’s such a hero overseas.
Check back this weekend for a full report. Happy holidays.
No interest in any of these crappy flicks. A very weak summer.
You’re a weak summer!
Hahahaha!!!
Maybe weak right now, but it won’t be once Inception rolls around.
It won’t be weak once Toy Story finally comes out, then Inception.
Inception will probably get good reviews, but I’m still not convinced it will get enough box office to lift the season. Summer audiences look for easily digestible escapism, and Inception’s plot sounds impenetrable and way-too-cerebral for Summer.
prince of persia is AWESOME watched it last week while I was traveling (it was released last week internationally) and I must say best movie i’ve seen all year
Prince of Persia is getting mostly horrible reviews. Same with Sex and the City.
Okay Mr. Optimistic, Summer is not over yet. We still have 3 more months.
If it wasn’t for Inception, this summer would SUCK. Terrible movies.
Oh, if you have any dignity or a MIND then DO NOT GO SEE Sex and the City 2. My GF went and HATED IT! And she’s a chick!
I’m not surprise that she is your girlfriend Moe!
Don’t claim to know what dignity is. Like something as simple as a film says nothing of dignity. Ridiculing others for their likes, on the other hand, does. Moron.
Get it?
Moron, get it MOERON!!!!
ok so it might have been funny only to me, but shoot it is funny!!!
Prince of Persia looks really entertaining. I will definitely be seeing that.
I don’t think the top three is right at all. I don’t think Shrek will be number one (and it’s drop will be steeper than that) and I think Prince of Persia will make more money than Sex and the City. SatC will crash and burn much harder than you are predicting, and PoP will do better, I’m not necessarily looking forward to either one, but it’s been shown women are interested in action flicks as well, and more will see PoP than SatC, I think.
Agreed. I don’t see the logic in saying that young kids will be aged out of PoP, when Sperling also says they’ll be going to theaters with their families, making the age limit meaningless.
Agree nirveeze and Brian. Think Prince of Persia will do better than Shrek, hello. Don’t know about S&TC2. Have no interest in seeing it. The only movie I really want to see is coming out in November—Harry Potter!And there’s a movie with Matt Damon that looks great:THE ADJUSTMENT BUREAU.
These predictions seem really really off to me.
Jake is one of the best actors out there and he’s willing do take on all kinds of roles (and work incredibly hard) that is what an actor does.
Nothing is wrong with a fun movie just For the fun of it.
Since when did the PG-13 rating keep families with younger kids out of the theaters? I seriously doubt that the rating will stop Prince Of Persia from beating Sex and the City 2 this weekend at the box office. I think the weekend box office is going to more resemble Prince of Persia and Sex and the City # 1, #2 respectively, with Prince taking number one due to the schools, including middle and high schools being out on Monday. That is going to mean that more teens will be out and will probably be going to see the PG-13 rated Prince over the PG rated Shrek. Shrek The Final Chapter will come in as a solid third followed by Iron Man 2 in fourth and Robin Hood in fifth.
Survival Of The Dead is opening in limited release this weekend. But not in my area:(
That’s the summer movie I wanted to see.
SotD is also playing On Demand from many cable companies (if you have access to that). It cost $10, not much more than what you’d pay in the theater.
I watched it last weekend on my TV at home. I usually like seeing the Romero films in theaters, but where I live, Land of the Dead played for a week and Diary never played at all.
I figured I’d avoid the frustration and watch Survival in the comfort of my own home.
I don’t have On Demand, and I would rather see it in a theatre anyway. What annoys me is that we have a multiplex with 24 screens, and they’re playing 11 movies! Shrek and Iron Man are taking up half of them! They’re also still playing Magruber, like anybody is going to see that. It seems like they could have had it on one lonely screen in the back. Oh well, I’m sure it will be on DVD soon enough.
seriously that movie was stupid, Im a huge zombie fan, but this is a dumb movie.
I don’t know, maybe it isn’t good, but I would like to find out for myself. There’s no way I’m going to miss a new Romero zombie movie!
Jake Gyllenhaal looks ridiculous in that kind of role. Worse than Tom Cruise in Legend. I probably wouldn’t have seen it anyway, but since he looks so silly in that part, I will really enjoy not seeing it.
Legend is the best movie EVER!
“Lilllllllllllllly!!!!!!”
Hey, Anna? No one (including me) knows what that reference is. You only do that when people are guaranteed to understand.
“Jaaaaaaaack!!!”
I got your back, Anna. Except that Legend is only the best bad Tom Cruise movie ever. And it still looks better than PoP.
well…since Sex and the City 2 has an extra day by opening today and Prince of Persia opening tomorrow…no wonder it will do better than Prince of Persia.
just read the article more carefully…Thursday won’t count toward weekend totals…
I’d rather see Micmacs, but its not playing in my theater =(
While there might be more people who SEE “SitC” and/or “PoP” this weekend than see “Shrek 4″, “Shrek” has the advantage of being in 3-D, and with that added $2-$3/ticket, that will be enough to push “S4″ over the top for the four days, especially with this being the first unofficial weekend of summer.
As some stated earlier, though, this is an horrific summer. “Iron Man”, “Toy Story” and MAYBE “Inception” (I have never not loved a Nolan movie, so he gets some benefit of the doubt a genre in which I usually have very little interest…dream invasion), the summer is horrendously AWFUL. Even from a business perspective, once you get past “Eclipse” on June 30, there really is NO sure fire hit in July or August.
Well, unless you count “Cats and Dogs 2″.
WD, everyoine said the same thing about Shrek 4 last week about how the 3D tickets will propel the movie past $100 million and it still uderperformed so I doubt it will be number 1.
that’s a good point. i think a lot of families are rebelling against the 3D right now with its higher price. i’m going to say 1)SATC2, 2)Prince of Persia 3)Shrek4…
I LOVED SEXY AND THE CITY 2!!! I have already seen it 3 time and am planning on seeing it several more time with my friends this weekend, the girls did good!!!! Don’t listen or read the reviews because they are ALL WRONG!!!!!! This movie in my book, (and my book only) gets a 5 out of 5 rating!!!
Yeah right, how did one see it 3 times at Midnight??
While this person does seem a little crazy, it was not hard to find advance screenings of this movie. There was a screening at my college Tuesday night that almost every sorority girl still on campus went to.
sex and the city was released on thursday.
I agree Sex and the city 2 was Amazing!!! I can’t wait to go see it again this weekend! It was soo funny, I loved it!
I will be watching SATC2!! Loves it!
Pixar films are cinematic gold and modern classics! Dreamworks flicks and Ice Age sequels are pure pop trash!! bwahahahaha!!