Image Credit: Disney/PixarWhat can’t Pixar do? The Emeryville, Calif.-based movie studio that has transformed movie animation has done it again with Toy Story 3, the sequel that’s destined to be Pixar’s 11th straight hit. The movie, a reunion of the characters that began the now-legendary studio 15 years ago, may actually break some records and become the company’s highest-grossing movie ever. It would have to exceed Finding Nemo — which in summer 2003 earned $340 million — but with the higher ticket prices for the 3-D flick, that outcome is surely possible. The movie will open in 2,463 digital 3-D locations of its 4,028 overall locations and could bow to triple digits this weekend. It doesn’t have anything to compete with. Unfortunately for Warner Bros., the Josh Brolin-Megan Fox-starrer Jonah Hex is looking like a huge disappointment. It’s one of the few movies I’m told that has lost traction with audiences over the past few weeks. Read on for my predictions.
1. Toy Story 3: $100 million
No Pixar flick has opened to more than $70 million, the amount both Nemo and The Incredibles raked in their first weekend in theaters. So Disney, Pixar’s owner and distributor, is not going to assume Toy Story 3 will generate much more than $85 million, considering the 3-D upcharge that they’ll benefit from. I think, however, the interest in the film is high, and with generations of audiences loving Pixar films, Toy Story 3 definitely could be the movie to beat this summer in terms of overall gross. The only one that could stand in its way is Christopher Nolan’s Inception, though the film’s original plot and complex storyline may make it a more difficult sell.
2. The Karate Kid: $33 million
Did anyone really expect this Jaden Smith-Jackie Chan-starrer to gross $56 million last frame? Now that it’s done so and audiences love the movie, expect it to hold in well this weekend. It’s going to lose some of its heat from Toy Story, but I predict a 40 percent fall that’s likely to be its steepest drop-off for the majority of its run.
3. The A-Team: $13 million
Audiences liked this movie. I’m just not sure they are talking about it now that its opening has come and gone. I would guess the film drops off around 50 percent this weekend, a number that can’t be making the execs at Fox very happy right now.
4. Jonah Hex: $12 million
Not sure the disfigured gunslinger from DC Comics is going to play at all this weekend. If anyone’s showing up, it’s young males. The film works in theory as a counter-programming option to the family fare of Toy Story 3. But there seems to be little heat on the PG-13 rated flick. Sorry Warner Bros.: Between this and Splice, June had not been a good month at the box office.
5. Shrek Forever After: $8 million
Say goodnight Shrek. Your reign has officially ended. After four weekends and $215 million, your time in the spotlight is finished. Unfortunately, what that means is the fourth installment of the massive franchise is going to be its lowest grosser of them all. I just don’t see it eking out even the $267 million that Shrek made back in 2001 before inflated 3-D ticket prices were around.
In limited release there are some interesting options around, including the Jonah Hill-John C. Reilly-starrer Cyrus, which Fox Searchlight will open in four theaters. Also bowing is the Casey Affleck-starrer The Killer Inside Me and Tilda Swinton’s I Am Love.
“Shrek Forever After” did not open with the highest numbers ever so there is a chance “Toy Story 3″ may not do the same.
Yes, but Shrek 4 suffered from the bad word of mouth of the third film and from general Shrek burnout. Neither of which is a problem that Toy Story has.
Agreed. My over/under on Toy Story 3′s box office:
$420 million
Difference is that from the get-go, TS3′s trailers have been leaving viewers feeling excited and melancholoy about the whole series. Right now it has 60 reviews accounted for on Rotten Tomatoes. Majority of them the top critics in the nation, it’s at 100% fresh. Some of these who gave it a a fresh never like ANYTHING. Especially anything for kids. That should tell you something.
My teenager grew up on the first two, now his 4 yr old sister is in love with them. This is a HOTLY anticipated film in my house the last few months. Even my husband and I can’t wait to see this one. The reason? You can’t help but love the characters, plus there are lines in there that are “adult” but that go over kids heads. Hell, Joss Whedon was one of the writers on the first film, so of course.
This film is going to be BIG this weekend. We usually avoid opening weekends like the devil, but this one we’re seeing tomorrow night.
TS3 is the reason why 21-year-olds (like myself) get giddy and make plans to go to the midnight premiere.
Totally agreed. I generally don’t go on opening weekend, but am already on pre-purchasing my tickets in the morning for the latest showing. SOOO excited, and the pure joy I get from these films as a 31 year old…..I cannot wait to take my kids a few times to see this. I think it’ll be THAT good. I think I will need to bring some tissue b/c Pixar always sneaks a surprise tear or two in my eye!!
I’m a 31 y/o w/o kids and I am going to see it. How sad for me, I’m gonna be the creepy guy in the theater that all the parnets tell their kids to stay away from
AAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!! Oh wait, maybe I can bring my nieces and nephews. They’re kids… I won’t seem creepy at all. HEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHEHE… Toy Story, YEAH!
that 100% is missleading because alot of the reveiws say it is worth seeing not that it is a great movie.
The movie is going to open big because there is nothing else really exciting playing. “Toy Story” has been loved by everyone since the mid 90′s. My four children are almost all grown-up, but they still love these movies.
Disney sometimes delivers incosistent box office resultes though. “The Lion King” was a BLOCKBOSTER and their next animated film, “Pocahontas,” was a mild success. Last year “Up” was a BLOCKBUSTER but “The Princess and the Frog” was a mild success as well. “Ratatouille” also started slow, but had a solid overall gross
You can’t compare Up to the Princess and the Frog. Up was a Pixar movie, which have always done well both financially and critic wise. Princess and the Frog was a traditional Disney movie not done by Pixar. Disney’s more traditional movies have done iffy over the last decade
I wish “Princess and the Frog” had done better. It was very good – sweet sentimental but not cheesy. However, I think I am a little burnt out from these “princess” films where the female protagonist always has to have a love interest.
Wait until you see TS 3. It’s absolutely wonderful. Not only will it be nominated, but I’m betting it will win Best Picture in this year’s Academy Awards. Don’t miss it!
NO WAY! Toy Story is one of the the very few kiddie flicks that adults will actually go and see without bringing kids with them. A lot of people from all ages love this film and grew up watching the. Toy Story creators were actually smart by making people wait unlike other sequels who forces their films down your throat every year
I hope it IS the biggest movie of the summer. I love it when GOOD movies (even if they’re sequels/franchise films) trump cynical crap at the box office.
After Iron Man, which has been out long enough to do all it’s going to do, Toy Story 3 and Inception are the ONLY summer movies that I specifically want to see and am looking forward to. I imagine that I’ll see other movies, but they’re the Big Two, and they’re the Big Two for most people I know, too.
People are looking forward to “The Expendables”
How much is WB paying EW to hype ICEPTION as some sort of blockbuster-to-be event? That film is being sold as “OMG, this will be huge” when the reality is that ACTAL tracking numbers and non-existant buzz indicates that it will only be a modest hit, all based on the “FROM TE DIRECTOR OF TE DARK KNIGHT”, but that won’t be enough to make it a hit with summer audiences…
No more than Summit is paying them to shill Twilight. I don’t know what non-existent buzz” you’re referring to, but most people I know have seen the trailers and/or TV spots and want to see it.
Well WB owns EW…
But a lot of film buffs are excited about Inception because it looks different, unique and its plot is being kept under wraps.
A lot of big film fans are excited for it, but you’re correct — I don’t think the average moviegoer is all that excited for it.
Exactly. A lot of film buffs and online denizens doesn’t equal mainstream moviegoing audiences. I seriously haven’t seen anyone in real life talk to me or mention INCEPTION, and yet I heard lots of real people talk about IRON MAN, TOY STORY 3, heck even a box office non-hit as SATC2. I think Nolan’s fans are building their hopes too high, regarding INCEPTION’s box offce potential. This will most likely be another CINDERELLA MAN/PUBLIC ENEMIES…critically acclaimed and box office underwhelmers. People are actually predicting 300 million !!!! Domestically!!! Nope, it’s not gonna happen. TDK was BATMAN, an icon, a brand name. INCEPTION looks like a gorgeous, wildly expensive art film. That will leave people scratchng their heads. And in the summer, that usually equals bad word of mouth and poor legs
“I seriously haven’t seen anyone in real life talk to me or mention INCEPTION.”
Because your personal anecdotal evidence means that this must be the case for everyone, right?
I work in a large office with both men and women of varying ages, and many of them mention how interesting Inception looks. WB is also doing a great job promoting it during major sporting events.
I agree that $300 million is a tall order, but I do think it’ll be a hit. And maybe a smart “expensive art film” is just what this summer needs. Because the boring franchise films (apart from TS3) are doing SO WELL so far.
“This will most likely be another CINDERELLA MAN/PUBLIC ENEMIES…critically acclaimed and box office underwhelmers.”
I think “Public Enemies” actually did pretty well considering it wasn’t that great of a movie. It garnered mostly positive reviews, but not many rave reviews.
Time Warner owns Entertainment Weekly, not Warner Bros. but since Time Warner owns both companies, EW and WB are “sister” corporations. So you were *this* close lol
I’ve been seeing a lot of Inception trailers during the NBA Finals and the World Cup. People are definitely talking about it.
And I hope Toy Story does $100 million+. Don’t forget, it’s Father’s Day and you know a bunch of families will be seeing movies this weekend.
Avatar had poor tracking numbers even the few weeks leading up until its opening weekend and no one was talking about it outside of the film community until it opened. Inception will do just fine.
There’s just no comparison. CAMERON is a very populist storyteller who is, among other things, famous for making even his action spectacles, very female-friendly. For INCEPTION to become the blockbuster that Nolan fans are claiming it will be, it needs to appeal to both men and women (Don’t even bring up “But TDK was a male-fueled hit”; It was not. At the end of day, it was BATMAN, a 60-year-plus-old iconic superhero that appeals to families and across gender lines)
AVATAR, TITANIC, ALIENS, TERMINATOR 2…all had strong female roles and/or romantic elements. INCEPTION, in spite of ELLEN PAGE and MARION COTILLARD, looks like a very cool-looking art film for fanboys. And if we go by NOLAN’s BAT films, we could assume that the women in INCEPTION will be just eye-candy and/or inconsequential. NOLAN’s one weakness is he can’t write women.
If Leonardo DiCaprio dies right before Inception comes out, then it will make $300m, else it will make $80-100m. Loved Dark Knight, but if not for Heath Ledger’s tragic death it would not have made $500m.
I don’t entirely atribute TDK’s massive box office to Ledger’s death. But I do believe there was a combination of perfectly aligned factors that contributed: BATMAN BEGINS was a successful, critically acclaimed turnaraound for the Bat-franchise, the property itself is iconic, and it appeals to multiple demos, and in addition to that, Heth Ledger’s tragic demise added a patina of “event”, of “must-see” urgency to the film. But yeah, I agree that INCEPTION will most likely NOT do blockbuster numbers. It looks and sounds like a labyrinthine, cerebral, thought-provoking film whose plot is not even clear, and although TOY STORY is also smart and solidly crafted, it appeals to families and women, and it has heart, and emotional resonance, as opposed to INCEPTION. Plus, it is true, Nolan’s skills don’t extend to emotion, and he can’t write women to save his life, which whil limit the audience for Inception. It wil probably open big due to its star and the “from the makers of THE DARK KNIGHT” but it will not have legs.
Natalie in “Memento” wasn’t badly written…
All four “Shrek movies are also Dreamworks Animations highest grossing films domestically.
Shrek 2
$441,226,247
Shrek the Third: $322,719,944
Shrek: $267,665,011
Shrek Forever After: $215,791,971
Kung Fu Panda: $215,434,591
So “Shrek Forever After” really has nothing to complain about.
Edit To Add: I also meant to type to put “Shrek 2″s gross like this:
Shrek 2: $441,226,247
I agree that he Nolan can’t write woman he can’t even cast a actractive one for a love interest. In The Dark Knight are we suppose to belive that two succusfull actrative men would have the hots for Maggie Gyenhall. They would have been better off casting her brother in drag. I really don’t think Dark Knight has stood the test of time a year ago where i work they were giving it away to employees because they had way too many copies on there hands. The only thing good in the movie is Heath Ledger’s Joker the rest was bloated bore. Don’t get me started on batmans deep voice.
It better be the Summer’s biggest hit!
On my way to wait in line for the midnight premiere, and I’m pretty sure it will make a lot more than $100 million.
And Jon, there is actually buzz surrounding Inception everyone I know is talking about either that or Toy Story 3.
How long is “TS3″? 90 minutes? Longer? The shorter it is, the more turnover, and the more money it makes.
It’s 100 minutes. So just long enough. But not too short to wrap it all up.
And oh the deal with Shrek 4, I like the first, love the second and really like parts of the third. Have little desire to see the 4th. It just looks like they ran out of good ideas.
“Toy Story 3″ I’ll definitely see because it’s me, and I love Jesse. Wheee! If only it were free, but we’ll see, won’t we? Gee, now that’s poetry, and in 3D.
I have a bad feeling that the next Twilight film may be the biggest domestic hit, which makes me sick to think about. I am hoping that TS3 breaks some sort of record so the Twi-hards can shut up.
Me being a Twi … ugh I hate that name, I think Eclipse may take the opening weekend, but TS3 will make a killing in the long run. It will own this year, at least until Harry Potter in November.
Eclipse is going to open big but then drop like a rock. I also don’t think people are nearly as excited for it as they were for New Moon back in November. It’ll make a lot, but it’s going to have difficulty beating New Moon’s box office, let alone Toy Story. I see Toy Story hitting $350 million — it has all the necessary components. Eclipse will be lucky to get to $300 million.
I’m interested to see what happens. New Moon sucked, so that definitely doesn’t help with perception right now. Plus, most Twi fans my age are on the fence with how we feel about this because the last movies sucked and only some of the clips look decent. It really is gonna depend on word of mouth. And are men really buying the whole “there is so much action” crap that Summit is selling.
Exactly. I watch the MTV Movie Awards (mostly to see the Deathly Hallows clip) and was pretty appalled at how stilted and wooden the acting was in the Eclipse scene they showed. It was painfully awkward. I just can’t believe that rational-minded fans would get THAT excited based on what’s been shown so far.
I also don’t think men are dumb enough to buy into Summit’s “action” marketing ploy. A lot of action by Twilight standards isn’t anything to brag about when put up against action from movies like Underworld and Blade.
So yeah, I think Eclipse would easily underwhelm. You can just FEEL that people don’t really care as much anymore.
Who cares if it drops ? New Moon still made 710 million and for the people complaining about the MTV award show it’s called voting for your favorite movie. And you know what Avatar and the other movies that were nominated were good but I still rather watch New Moon and yes I voted for it SO WHAT ? Stop complaining.
Twilight’s fandom is very passionate about there stuff and of course everyone’s going to hate.
GET OVER IT ! It’s annoying and your bullying is going to go over people’s heads and Twilight fans heads. And if you didn’t notice the fans are obsessed with the books and the movies are extras and it really doesn’t matter how bad they get. They love the characters that much.
the problem with the Twlight movies is that they come out to offten. Most sequals have a couple of years betwen them. I get why the producers do this they want to make as much money as possible before the fad goes away.
Eclipse will very likely open big, possibly bigger than Toy Story 3, but will then drop off significantly in the following weeks. Right now, there is not as much hype surrounding the Twilight franchise as there was last November when New Moon came out. That was the height of Twilight-mania. I would still expect a big opening, but not as big as New Moon’s. And New Moon dropped about 70% each successive weekend. I’m expecting the same for Eclipse. Toy Story 3′s total gross will definitely be bigger than Eclipse’s.
As for Inception, I don’t think it will top Toy Story 3 either. I think it will do well, but it won’t be a massive hit. People are acting like it’s Batman 3, but it’s not. I’m definitely excited for it, but it seems like too ambiguous/confusing of a film to challenge Toy Story 3′s gross. Time will tell.
oh shut up. I hope we kick ass so you can shut the hell up.
And yes I’ve been waiting for this damn movie since I read the book three years ago.
Yeah TS3 is going to be big. Huge. Animated movies do well period, but then you have it being Disney and Pixar, combined with the great reviews. It will be stellar. I thought that Eclipse was going to rule the summer box office until Inception, but TS3 is looking rather powerful right now.
I think Toy Story 3 is going to be BIG. Simply because there are multiple generations who are so ready to see this movie. You have the adults who simply love the Toy Story movies. You have all the 20 somethings going to see it because they grew up with it. Then you have all the kids who want to see it because it is Toy Story.
Oh yeah, I think it is going to be HUGE. I
My over/under on box office for Toy Story 3: $420 million
I’m gonna go one step further and say if any movie can potentially break $500 million this year it is TS3.
And speaking of 420, James, that’s the best way to watch the movie ;^)
Can’t wait to see this film
Pixar never fails to impress
It has been a woefully mediocre year for movies yet Pixar has yet to make a flop. And as everyone adores Toy Story with it’s beloved ragtag band of toy characters we’ve grown up with and come to love dearly , I doubt TS 3 will have any problem at the box office. I can’t wait to go and see it myself as the TS saga is at the top of the list for me.
“Mediocre” is too kind a word.
TS3 will absolutely be the hit of the summer. Last year Up was the number two flick, the year before that Wall-e. TS3 has a built in audience who already know and love these characters, and unlike Shrek, they haven’t been over-played. I’ll predict $110M…
Up was the #3 flick. Both HP and Transformers grossed more. But I get your point.
Of the summer, I mean. Up was the #3 flick of the summer.
I’m another one that is only looking forward to Toy Story 3 and Inception this summer.
I think there’s some decent buzz for “Scott Pilgrim vs. the World” as well.
I think people also need to realize, regarding the supposed “lack of awarness” of Inception. You do realize, that the movie doesn’t come out FOR ANOTHER MONTH!!!?!? It’s June 17th, Inception doesn’t come out until July 16th. So not only have they laid the groundwork of “buzz-worthy” cryptic TV spots during the NBA finals and World Cup, they have the next four weeks to air hundreds of TV spots and have the cast go on every talk show on TV to promote it. MARK MY WORDS: Inception will be the highest-grossing and most critically-acclaimed movie of 2010. You’ll see….
Inception won’t be the highest-grossing film of the year — Toy Story and probably HP will top it. But I’m also not buying that there’s no buzz about it. There’s plenty of buzz, and I’ve seen TV spots all over the place. So I agree with you in that respect.
You know what else has a lot of buzz around it? Dog poop.
Well, right now, TOY STORY 3 is the most critically acclaimed film of 2010 so far, I can’t imagine INCEPTION getting 100 % 0n RT, and am POSITIVE it will underwhelm at the box office. Sure, geeks and internet Nolan fans wll love it, but mainstream audiences won’t.
Chris Nolan’s highest metacritic scores were around 82, and a few films have topped that. There are usually at least a dozen with 83 or above…