Box office preview: 'Knight & Day' and 'Grown Ups' are no match for 'Toy Story 3'

knight-and-dayImage Credit: Frank MasiFrom the looks of it, Fox is determined to score a hit with their Tom Cruise-Cameron Diaz-starrer Knight & Day. Not only has the studio has spent gobs of money selling the romantic spy caper, but they also moved up its opening to Wednesday in order to get ahead of Adam Sandler’s big summer comedy Grown Ups. But will any of it work? Reviews have been mixed, and with a debut of $3.8 million yesterday, it’s quite possible Tom Cruise’s return to the summer blockbuster may only generate a bronze medal in this weekend’s race to the finish. Grown Ups, in contrast, is likely to do the kind of business Sony and Sandler are used to doing together when Sandler goes right down the middle with his comedies. Still, the movie everyone is talking about — Toy Story 3 — will take the top spot for the second weekend in a row. The Pixar flick, which has earned over $43 million additional dollars during the week, will likely drop around 40 percent its second weekend in theaters. Read on for my predictions.

1. Toy Story 3: $66 million

Ladies and gentleman, welcome to the summer of Pixar. Once all the dust settles on this summer of unoriginality, the one shining bright spot will be Pixar’s latest adventure following Buzz and Woody. In fact, the film was beloved by audiences over the last week, it already earned $155 million in the last six days. This movie is sure to beat Iron Man 2‘s overall gross, and will most likely become the highest-grossing film of the summer.

2. Grown Ups: $40 million

What do you get when you combine Adam Sandler, Kevin James, and Chris Rock in a summer movie about middle-aged men reminiscing about their younger years? Lots of cash. Critics don’t like the movie but that’s never stopped a Sandler comedy from earning ticket sales. This film will be no exception and adding James, whose become a box-office draw on his own, won’t hurt its broad appeal either.

3. Knight & Day: $20 million

Jury’s still out on Tom Cruise’s return as an action star. Sure he hits all the beats with this entertaining actioner, but audiences just aren’t showing up the way Fox might have hoped. Cruise and Diaz have been killing themselves on the publicity tour, but this movie may remind us once again that movie stars don’t matter any longer when it comes to the box-office.

4. The Karate Kid: $18 million

Audiences love this movie. It’s obvious looking at the numbers: It’s already made $117 million since opening two weekends ago. A 40 percent drop would put it at $18 million for the weekend, but since it’s made over $10 million during the mid-weeks alone, there is a small chance it could net bigger than Knight & Day’s three-day number. Yikes.

5. The A-Team: $8 million

Hopefully, for Fox’s sake, this 1980s remake holds in with a 40 percent drop. The film with $55 million in its coffers after two weeks of release has been spanked by Karate Kid. But it’s a big summer, and if adults aren’t into Knight & Day, maybe they’ll take another look at A-Team for a little nostalgia-fest.

Comments (79 total) Add your comment
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  • LOL

    Where’s MacGruber?

    • Jason

      It is already gone from theaters with a paltry $8.5m total gross – $8 of which, I am embarassed to say, is from me. It was better than Indy IV, but that bar’s set pretty low.

  • Jose

    The A-Team was a remake?

    • mari

      I hope you are being sarcastic OR you were born in the 90s. If not then you should read more entertainment magazines/blogs *smile*

      • Jose

        I was born in the 90s, but I do know of the show, so yeah, that was sarcasm.

    • Bruno

      It’s actually a prequel. Saw a matinee showing of it this week, I was surprised. While the movie is getting trashed for being bad, I had a hell of a lot more fun than I thought I would. The actors really make you care. And the dude from District 9 was hilarious… I’d recommend it.

      • Hardy

        Yeah, this movie was very over the top, but very fun. I’m glad I went to see it.

      • Mary

        I’ll second that. The A-Team was just good escapist entertainment, a fun time at the movies.

  • Jenny

    Toy Story’s going to wind up as THE film of the summer (unless Inception surprises me). Our theater’s still selling out IMAX shows and the word of mouth is pretty incredible. It wouldn’t surprise me if it remained a serious BO threat into the July 4 weekend (which is a big time for families to go to the movies).
    I couldn’t be happier to see a GOOD movie do so well, as opposed to cheap gimmicky junk that’s in theaters now and will continue to come out for the rest of the summer.

    • Derek

      I absolutely agree. So far, TS3 is the best movie I’ve seen this year. It deserves to be the top grossing flick of the year (so far)…

      • Danielle

        I’ve seen it three times already :)

      • Celia

        I haven’t seen it yet, but I’m looking forward to it. I think Toy Story 3 is definitely the biggest movie this summer. I think the surprise hit was The Karate Kid. I loved that movie.

      • Clayton

        For sure. I’m doing my part to help make sure it makes a lot of money – seen it five times, and plan to see it once more before it leaves theaters.

      • Emerald

        Agreed. I am going to see it again this weekend…I love it so much and I hope it beats Avatar….I don’t know if it will, but if any movie has a chance, it would be a movie from Pixar. This movie is fantastic even for adult standards, and anyone scared to go without kids in tow, don’t be….I went last weekend for the later show (9:30) and had the ONLY kids in the theatre!! Everyone should experience this on the big screen….whether in 2d or 3d or IMAX

      • Eternal Clementine

        Watched it last weekend and going again to watch it on Saturday, just as giddy and excited as I was the first time. Question, is it worth going to watch it in 3D?

      • Big Brutha

        My one criticism of TS3 is the 3-D. It was totally worthless and didn’t add a thing. Save the $$ and see it in a normal theater with good sound.

    • Garrett

      i dont think inception will surprize me which is a good thing it will be one of the most groundbreaking movies from one of the most influential directors of recent time! It will be incredible and the fact that it will make more $ than any other movie this summer is just a plus!

  • bubbatwo420

    Knight and Day was a blast, I really hope the word of mouth carries it to a #2 behind TS3. Seriously everyone, best action movie of the summer so far.

    • joe

      The critics were pretty rough on this movie but I actually heard a lot of nice things about it from people who have seen it. Still not convinced though

    • Tomy Boy

      If Tom Cruise’s life were a tv show, him jumping in Oprah was him jumping the shark….poor guy

      • Hope

        haha true, is that how his career got shoved down the drain? If it is I’ll agree poor guy.

  • JackA$$

    Waiting for the “Pixar films are cinematic gold while Dreamworks and the Ice Age movies are pop culture trash. Blah, blah, blah – I’m superior to all of you…” comment guy. Should be coming any time now.

    • Grrr

      Hmmm… I like what that superior comment guy has to say. Seems like he knows what’s up, where can I meet him?

  • Stephen

    It’s embarassing that Entertainment Weekly can’t hire writers who know English grammar as this excerpt from the Grown Ups section of the above article is horrifically incorrect: “…whose become a box-office draw on his own…” Did nobody else notice this?

    • Jason in MI

      It’s one wrong word. “Whose” instead of the contraction “who has” hardly counts as “horrifically incorrect.”

      I suppose you want to be an entertainment writer yourself, and you post as a way to prove EW hired the wrong person.

      • Jon Dekerley

        One word, but a very crass error. This is a national magazine owned by one of the biggest conglomerates in the world. You’d think they would hire some proofreaders at least…

      • Skip182

        Ew has so many posts between the physical magazine and the website, I think they basically conentrate on the print magazine. Just a guess though.

  • Anonymous

    How about moviegoers boycott Fox and Disney since they support allowing illegal aliens in the USA? With so many people out of work(25 million plus) hit them
    in their pocketbook!!

    • TJ

      Don’t you have a Tea Party meeting to get to?

      • mari

        This.

    • Sam

      Wrong site buddy! Its arizonagay.com

    • Rob

      Um Anonymous, where do you get your information? How do Fox and Disney support allowing illegal aliens into the United States? Did you read that on a blog somewhere, maybe “easilyinfluenced.com” or “factsgetintheway.net” and mistake it for the truth?

      • YUCK

        not where he got I can bet that he got that info from the The Globe, right next to the story where it said, Bigfoot wrote all of Michael Jackson songs and now is found to dress Lady Gaga, that is where he got his info form.

      • Wes

        Rob, that comment made me love you forever in a way that Anonymous would not approve.

    • Bill

      Dude, Buzz and Woody are toys. They’re not real people.

    • No

      how about you leave the country and never come back. That would improve it.

    • ltchy

      Yup, it’s true..! Didn’t you know that the manhole covers in Disneyland lead directly to Mexico? lt’s also a good thing that the mascots don’t talk, or l’m suspecting there’d be an accent… *gasp!*

  • Badtzmaru

    Yes, Stephen, I noticed it, too. EW writers can’t seem to spell or spell “spell checker.”

  • wakeforcer

    Movie stars don’t matter? Even your own predictions don’t bare that out. TS3 wouldn’t be as big a hit if they had replaced the voices of Tom Hanks and Tim Allen. Grown Ups is relying soley on being an Adam Sandler movie with fart jokes. The Karate Kid has name recognition going for it, but without Jackie Chan, it probably would have already been out of theatres. You have Knight and Day at number 3, it wouldn’t even crack the top 20 without a name star above the title.

    • BG 17

      I noticed this as well – in one prediction she mentions the drawing power of Sandler, Rock and James, and in the next she says that movie stars don’t matter. I’m confused…

  • facts

    ALL STARS are no match for KIDDY FILMS. PERIOD.

  • Jim

    Would it kill you to proofread this before you send it out? EW the magazine is usually really well edited, but this is sloppy.

    • Let it go

      It’s not just this guy, most os EW writers are like that. Meaning EW don’t give a flying crap about spelling or grammar so just let it go.

  • Craig

    How can movie stars not matter anymore? Did you even read your summary for Grown-ups? You attribute it’s likely success to stars Adam Sandler and Kevin James. I guess comedy actors can’t be stars… or something.

  • James

    Careful, Nicole. If the Twihard mafia catches you having the gall to suggest that Toy Story 3 will make more than Eclipse, you’re in deep trouble.
    Incidentally, I agree. Toy Story 3 will end up being the biggest movie of the summer — by a very, very healthy margin.

    • James

      Yeah, I’m holding to my prediction of $420 mil for TS3

    • rch

      Mafia here. $50 on Eclipse over TS3 when the dust settles. I saw the movie at the premiere, and it’s really, really spot on for fans.

      • dee

        Key words: FOR FANS.

      • Hannah

        And the fans would gobble it up even if it sucked. Where else is the money going to come from?

  • Mike

    Tom Cruise actually has very good taste in picking projects, he could have probably done better than a movie that comes off like Mission: Impossible 3.5 judging by the trailers

  • sam

    Knight & Day at least looked kind of interesting and amusing. I haven’t seen a single thing in all the promos that I have seen for Grown Ups that is funny. Adam Sandler has absolutely no talent.

    • Jose

      Have you seen Sandler in the romantc drama Punch Drunk Love. The guy has talent, the problem is that he’s almost 50 and trapped in movies where he’s acting like a member of a frathouse.

      • ltchy

        Trapped, or chooses..? l agree about Punch Drunk Love, though, and 50 First Dates definitely had charm…

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