Box office preview: 'Eclipse' shines on Fourth of July weekend

The Twilight Saga: Eclipse should put to rest for good the notion that movies have to appeal to all audiences to be massive successes. Yes, the Twilight series is an anomaly, and it’s unlikely another franchise could replicate its special brand of audience fervor, but let’s be clear: The film’s Wednesday opening, which garnered $68.5 million, just out-grossed Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen — without blowing anything up. Now the question is: Just how much will Eclipse gross over the six-day July 4th weekend? My guess is $200 million. It’s a huge number, but thanks to the holiday, there are lots of opportunities for Twi-Hards to get back to the theaters to see their favorite love triangle on the big screen.

Also hoping to take advantage of the holiday frame is M. Night Shyamalan’s The Last Airbender. The film, based on the popular Nickelodeon series, has received dismal reviews. Paramount is just hoping that the series’ fanbase will come out in support of the film. Of course, it’s not helping much that Paramount made the controversial choice to cast a several Caucasian actors as characters that were of Asian descent in the series. Still, the movie grossed $3 million on Wednesday night and could reach $50 million by the end of Monday. The studio did a last-minute 3-D conversion of the footage, a technique that nowadays is being seen as cheap attempt to draw in more eyeballs. Whether or not it works remains to be seen.

The rest of the top ten will be dominated by holdovers. Toy Story 3 shouldn’t drop more than 40 percent this weekend, and could reach $300 million by the end of the holiday frame. The beloved animated flick from Pixar has already made $244 million after only 12 days of release. Adam Sandler’s Grown Ups is likely to fall about 50 percent during its sophomore session, but with $50 million already in its pocket, no one’s likely to be complaining. Tom Cruise’s Knight and Day will be hoping to keep its drop off in the 50 percent range. Exit polls were solid, which is what the studio is counting on to maintain momentum on the PG-13 rated actioner. Check back with us throughout the holiday for box office updates.

Read more:
‘Eclipse’ opening breaks record for biggest single-day Wednesday opening
‘Eclipse’ to have widest domestic release in history

Image Credit: Kimberly French

Comments (103 total) Add your comment
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  • nodnarb

    I have a full tub of popcorn and a bottle of tequila. Ready, Twi-tards and Twi-haters? OK, go!

    • Margie

      Using the term “retard” as an insult is very obnoxious, ignorant and promotes stereotypes toward people with disabilities. I get that your making a joke but you could try being clever instead of just offensive.

      • Margie

        Sorry, I meant to type, “you’re.”

      • The Internet

        They didn’t use the term. He -was- being clever by not using it. Don’t be a douche.

      • Steve

        The problem is Margie, everyone is so easily offended now; we have created such an ultra sensitive society. No, we should’nt be disrespectful to anyone, but c’mon your comment is overkill. I am starting a new “I’m offended” campaign, it offends me when others are so easily offended.

      • Rude

        @ The Internet

        Using the term “douche” as an insult is very obnoxious, ignorant and promotes stereotypes toward people with unclean ******. I get that you’re making a joke but you could try being clever instead of just offensive.

      • nodnarb

        Oh Margie, stop being so retarded.

      • Rick

        Omigosh! Bloom County predicted this would happen back in the 80′s! Offensivity!

      • learn french

        The word “douche” is directly translated to “shower” in french. so calm down

      • kristy

        Oh Margie- Your such a retard!!

      • Ian

        May the politically correct burn!

      • alex

        Retard. Its not like retarded people are smart, so when someone calls something retarded, they are using the word correctly.

    • Liz Lemon

      Eclipse ONLY made 24 mil on Thursday. The steepest Wednesday to Thursday DECLINE in HISTORY! Where’s that article EW?

  • Moe

    You ain’t got no pancake mix!!

  • William

    “Of course, it’s not helping much that Paramount made the controversial choice to cast a several Caucasian actors as characters that were of Asian descent in the series.”

    Wow…”to cast A several caucasian actors…”??? Proofreader!!!

    • amylovesnewwave

      They never proofread blog posts. Sometimes if you’re lucky they’ll monitor the comments and then correct any errors the astute readers point out. Mostly they don’t. I could rant about that, but it makes my heart hurt, so I’ll pass.

  • Ramo

    “The movie grossed $3 million on Wednesday night and could reach $50 million by the end of Monday.” I take it match wasn’t your strongest subject, Nicole. That movie is gonna BOMB. Take your prediction and cut it in half.

    • eliott256

      I take it english wasn’t yours?

      • Ramo

        Oh, I see, because I misspelled “math?” So to you, a typo is the equivalent of poor English? My English is just fine, thanks.

      • steph

        If you’re going to criticize someone else on something, you better be sure your post is perfect. Duh.

      • wino

        relax folks, it was only a typo. Ramo’s point still stands….50 mil by monday is a bit of a stretch for a movie that has only grossed 3.

      • Jason

        The $3M was only from midnight shows. The article doesn’t make that clear, but what do you expect from EW.com?

      • Sarah

        Well “gonna” isn’t a word either Ramo. It’s “going to.”

      • meso Soup

        Sarah – why are you a spelling nazi?
        fo reeeel iz that all u can du?

      • Sarah

        I feel that if you’re going to question another ones intelligence, then you should at least be some what intelligent yourself. Ramo called the writer out on her math and someone else called Ramo out on one of his spelling mistakes. I just pointed out another spelling mistake, further clarifying that Ramo is an idiot, who shouldn’t be going around questioning other peoples intelligence. Discussion over.

      • Allen Swords

        @Sarah:

        As long as we’re criticizing, using apostrophes correctly would spare you grammar-related grief and heckling from me.

      • Matt

        You all are retarded douches. (Ed. note: I mean reduced showers, not a mentally disabled women’s product) In addition, it is perfectly acceptable to make a prediction, and make a spelling mistake. Calm down.

      • Sarah

        @ Allen Swords
        Ah, yes. I have always had a bit of trouble with those darn apostrophes.

      • Ramo

        Sarah: “gonna” is me typing in a conversational manner. I know what it’s short for and I chose to write it the way I wrote it. You’ve got some nerve calling me an idiot. Sod off.

        Oh and if we’re GONNA nitpick every aspect of our posts: somewhat” is one word, and “people’s” should have an apostrophe. No big deal, but hey, just like you, “I feel that if you’re going to question another ones intelligence, then you should at least be some what intelligent yourself.”

      • Lily

        Actually Ramo, peoples should not have an apostrophe. People’s is people is. I agree with Sarah. You’re an idiot.

      • Ramo

        YES Lily….it should. It’s a possessive. Apostrophes have more than one use. Study your grammar before making stupid comments when you don’t know what you’re talking about. Who’s the idiot…?

      • Ramo

        And yes, I made an error in my response to Sarah. The apostrophe should be after the “s.” But there most certainly SHOULD be an apostrophe.

    • Kill Roy

      Are you stupid? It grossed about $30 MILLION at the midnight showings alone! $68 for all Wednesday.

      • tbc

        kill roy–they were talking about the Airbender movie…dang why is everyone so quick to jump all over someone when they don’t know what the heck they are talking about either? Lighten up people!

    • It’s already made 120 mil

      How is that a bomb?

  • Rebecca

    Saw Toy Story 3 (and weeped — so good!) and Knight & Day (my low expectations were drastically exceeded — it was really fun) last weekend. Going to see Eclipse on Saturday (hoping to avoid screaming fangirls by hitting up a 10:00 am showing). So glad there are finally some movies out that are worth watching. There was quite a dry spell last month.

    • Devon

      i did the same it was no screaming teenagers jus cryin grandmothers and mothers

  • t.t

    I think knight and day and grown ups will be good cause chicks and tweens are watching twilight
    so male adults will have nothing but those two to watch. and kids will be at home cause housewives will be flooding the twilight cinema.

  • Jose

    Going to rewatch Toy Story 3 tomorrow and taking my parents with me. Yeah Ramo’s right, The Last Airbender will dissapoint.

  • JC

    Again I say Worst Case Scenario: Eclipse grosses more than Avatar

    • Jason

      Ain’t gonna happen – these movies flame out quick.

    • @JC

      That will never happen. The twilight movies make all their money in the first week and then drastically decline. Avatar started out moderately and then gained momentum.

  • Celia

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but is this not the 4th article about the exact same thing??

  • kushka53

    Am I the only one out there who found this film too violent? It was uneven, compared to the other two. Will there be one more I wonder? After Twilight I was rooting for Edward, but after this one she’s crazy if she doesn’t pick Jacob! Much more of a life, in so many ways…

    • Nick

      Too bad the books were already written, published, and released, and SPOILER ALERT! Bella ends up with Edward after a disgusting scene in which she gives birth to their creature baby and becomes a vampire. Oh, and Jacob becomes a pedophile.

      • Fefe

        Jacob doesn’t become a pedophile. I really hope you were jokeing about that. I can’t wait to see Eclipse with my cousin this movie has a great Director compaired to Twilight that director was awful. I’m just so glad they arnt waiting forever to make and release the movies!

      • Telma

        Jacob does NOT become a pedophile you jerk. Do you know what a pedophile is? It’s an adult having sex with children. There is NO sex in Twilight except between 109 year old Edward and 18 year old Bella AFTER they are married. NO one has sex in the Twilight series unless they are married. Nessie gets promised to 17 year old Jacob as a future wife when she becomes of legal age that is imprinting.

      • Tali

        No, a pedophile is an adult that is sexually attracted to a child. Because imprinting is the cornerstone of the wolves’ reproduction prospects, you cannot say that there isn’t some small part of Jacob that wants to have sex with her. That’s pedophilia. Also I’m so glad Nessie will have a choice when it comes to her future husband. This series frustrates me with the flip-flopping of whether there’s freedom to choose or it’s destiny.

      • Jay

        Not that I care much but Jacob at that time in New Dawn isn’t an adult. He is a 16 year old kid. Shooting myself now for knowing that.

      • BkWurm1

        @Tali, actually the books specifically addresses the question of sexual attraction and clearly said no. The imprinting triggers the overwhelming need to be there for the other one in whatever capacity they need. To a toddler, they become the best playmate and babysitter ever but it is stressed that while they know they always will want to be with that one, the romanitc aspect of their feelings doesn’t come into play until it is appropriate. An odd situation to be sure but the book sets the rules so making disgusting accusations and trying to twist it says more about you than the books.
        ***
        I need to stop reading the boards. I just barely have an interest in the Twillight craze since I did read the books (found them moderatley entertaining but the first 2 movies kind of awful) but I keep finding myself compelled to defend the franchise against over the top accusations. It’s just a series of books (and movies) and NOT some secret weeapon launched to undermine and corrupt society. Chill people.

      • nodnarb

        What?! An infant is “promised” to a 17-year-old? And you let your children read this? My god!
        (Ok seriously, that’s not what imprinting is. At all. I don’t even like this series, but I seem to know more about it than the actual fans.)

      • erik

        ok, let’s not talk about pedophilia……let’s talk about necrophilia!!!!!

      • Diane

        I don’t care if it’s pedophillia or not–that a 17 year old is going to help raise his future bride is sqicky

      • Elle

        Diane, Sqicky is my new favorite word. Thank you!

      • Ah, you have been well schooled in the art of “Horrifying the Twilight Noob”

        *tips hat*

  • Linda L

    Saw a preview of Airbender and I did not know anything about the movie except that it is based on a cartoon. I found it disappointing but the movie did kinda grow on me as it progressed. The problem was (to me) I could not feel a connection to the lead character, Ang and there are some pretty cheesy acting by the young stars. Special affects with the water was pretty cool, though.

  • Chouko

    I doubt The Last Airbender will do that well. EW keeps harping on how the show’s faithful fanbase will go see the movie, but keeps ignoring the fact that a good chunk of that fanbase is *pissed* about this movie, and the poor reviews aren’t doing it any favors. It looks like M. Night took everything we loved about the series and chucked it all out the window. When your midnight showing ends with a roomful of fans booing over the credits, your film has a problem.

  • L Gilbert

    I was really surprised at how good Eclipse was. I loved the Twilight books and was very disappointed with Twilight and New Moon, but this one – I really loved this one. The action was good, and the triangle was well done. I even liked the interactions between Edward and Jacob. So far this is my favorite of the movies, which is saying something since the Eclipse book is my least favorite. I just hope Breaking Dawn lives up to its potential as my favorite. Can’t wait!

    • Sarah C

      I agree. The first two films had some scenes that made me cringe from cheesey acting, but I was on the edge of my seat for the entire film.

  • Trey

    Thanks for spoiling the movies jerk. I don’t read books unless I have to

    • Jason

      Wow. Just wow.

  • Trey

    I sort of want to see the lady airbender but im hearing poor poor poor reviews.I liked the show…but the actors look so different…..not even good look-a-likes.

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