Laurie Sparham
I’m headed up north tomorrow for the Toronto International Film Festival, which usually manages to clarify the awards season a bit. Though many of this year’s potential big guns (How Do You Know, True Grit, Love and Other Drugs, The Fighter, The Social Network) are skipping the festival, there are still a bunch of possible nominees screening. Now that I’ve seen 20 of the Toronto entries (a couple of which I’m not allowed to say), here are my top 10 films to look out for.
The King’s Speech The true story of King George VI (Colin Firth) and his struggle to overcome an embarrassing stutter, the Weinstein Co.’s delightful and ultimately moving drama (directed by John Adams‘ Tom Hooper) is a showcase for Firth, who will easily become a back-to-back Best Actor nominee. I expect the movie to snag a Best Picture slot as well.
Black Swan Darren Aronofsky and Natalie Portman’s collaboration received raves out of Venice last week. Portman seems like the best bet to challenge The Kids Are All Right‘s Annette Bening for Best Actress.
Hereafter This one’s a mystery, and I’ve been guilty of overhyping Clint Eastwood dramas sight unseen in the past. But any movie that earns comparisons to Babel (and costars Matt Damon to boot) piques my interest.
Rabbit Hole I’m hearing good things about Nicole Kidman’s performance as a grieving mother in John Cameron Mitchell’s adaptation of the 2007 play. The role won Cynthia Nixon a Tony so it clearly has potential. As of now the film has no distributor, but it seems like one of the hottest acquisition properties of the festival.
Blue Valentine It’s been four months since I saw this movie in Cannes and I still can’t shake it. Finally more critics and pundits will get to see the recut version (which is shorter than what showed at Sundance). If there’s any justice, Ryan Gosling and Michelle Williams will each earn their second career nods.
Another Year I’m also curious to see what North American audiences think of Mike Leigh’s latest look at everyday Londoners, particularly Lesley Manville’s arresting performance as an oft-drunk receptionist. She’s another reason why the Best Actress race seems especially crowded this year.
127 Hours Conversely, there’s not too much to talk about in the Best Actor category so far. But since James Franco’s dominating performance (directed by Danny Boyle) was very well received at Telluride, he could score his first nomination after certainly coming close for Milk.
The Town Ben Affleck’s testosterone-heavy bank heist drama is rightly being compared to The Departed and it delivers in every department: acting, writing, and directing. It’s coming out awfully early in the fall (Sept. 17) but has the necessary early reviews to earn a spot in the conversation. If it does some business, it could last.
Biutiful Perhaps Cannes’ most polarizing film, it still features an undeniably strong performance by Javier Bardem, who’s clearly an Academy favorite. It’s dark as hell, but I’d never count him out.
Waiting for “Superman” The already hot documentary race will get a jolt when Davis Guggenheim’s emotional look at a bunch of low-income students navigating the charter-school lottery system plays its second major festival. It’s a must see whether you have kids or not.
I’ll have festival updates throughout the next week, so check back here, or follow me on Twitter (@davekarger).
I wanted to go to see the “Tomorrow, When the War Began” movie =’(
The films I want to see this year are; “The Social Network”, “Black Swan” and “True Grit”. I have a feeling that those 3 films will dominate the Oscars this year.
I am going to see that this weekend. I’m in Australia I didn’t know it was being released in the US.
Me too! Though what’s that got to do with the above I have no idea.
Looking forward to Black Swan and I’m intrigued by Rabbit Hole and Blue Valentine also.
Yay Fall and Winter!
I’m really looking forward to seeing some of these movies. After a mostly disappointing summer movie season, I’m definitely happy it’s fall movie season. I think I’m most looking forward to Black Swan. I love Natalie Portman and Mila Kunis, and Darren Aronofsky is an impressive and ambitious director. The Town, Blue Valentine, Another Year, and The King’s Speech (if only to see another brilliant performance from Colin Firth) all sound great too. Can’t wait until these films roll out nationwide.
Black Swan does look really intriguing! Also The Town and Blue Valentine have been on my radar for a while. Agreed about seeing The King’s Speech just for Firth, he’s always great.
To be honest, I hadn’t heard about “The King’s Speech” until now…and it sounds like it’s terrific.
It’s good to see Firth breaking through and gettins some awards love these past couple of years.
I hadn’t either Mr. Holloway. But it sounds interesting. Firth was great in A Single Man last year (although I thought the movie over all wasn’t fantastic, mostly because of the younger college kid though).
Saw “Rabbit Hole” on Broadway & found it very fascinating – with Kidman in the lead, the movie could be just what this lack luster (as far as performances) season needs. The King’s Speech & anything by Eastwood will add interest to the Oscar bait movie season. Really looking forward to it all.
Here’s a way to decide if Nicole Kidman was a good choice to play the role in the film version: at any time during the play, was the character required to move a muscle in her face?
Why is only Annette Bening being singled out for The Kids Are All Right and not the equally fine Julianne Moore?
I’m thinking that, by the end of the year, Benning will be pushed for lead actress and Moore will campaign for supporting so that they both have a better chance of getting noms.
I heard they would both be campaigning for Best Actress, and Mia would vie for best supporting.
Yeah, I thought Julianne Moore was the more obvious Best Actress contender.
I couldn’t agree more- Julianne Moore has the larger role.
Best Actress Race could be quite interesting this year:
Julianne Moore
Annette Benniing
Natalie Portman-Black Swan
Michelle Williams- Blue Valentine
Jennifer Lawrence-Winter’s Bone
Hilary Swank-Conviction
Nicole Kidman-Rabbit Hole-if they get a distributor and release it this year.
Leslie Manville- Another Year
Carey Mulligan-Never Let Me GO
Naomi Watts- Fair Game
Anne Hathaway- Love and Other Drugs
just to name a few.
Maybe also Halle Berry for “Frankie and Alice” if that is released this year.
Jennifer Lawrence can take everyone else on that list and kick them in the mud. Not only the best performance of the year, but in one of the best overall films
I think Julianne is ‘Supporting’ material, not best actress. Annette’s performance in “the dinner scene” alone are enough for Best Actress for me. No one else comes close this year.
for real, PNK.
“The Kids are all Right.” The irony is that Julianne has the bigger role. She should be
promoted for Best Actress, and Bening should be open to Best Supporting Actress. I am so hoping this is Julianne’s year.
Right, I’m not sure who’s going for Lead and who’s going for Supporting. (I assumed Bening was going for lead since that’s what Dave said, and he’s in the know.)
My point is that ONE of them is going for lead while the other will be relegated to supporting.
You’re right, Dave is probably in the know, so I wonder if he’d care to enlighten the rest of us )since many seemed interested): Mr. Karger, will The Kids Are All Right be a “Terms of Endearment” situation, or a “Chicago” one?
mark
You didn’t ask me, but I’m thinking “Chicago.” “Terms of Endearment” just doesn’t happen anymore…at least not since “Thelma and Louise”, and that was in the early 90′s!
Mr. Holloway, you really got me thinking: how would the Academy have split up Thelma and Louise if they were in “one or the other” mode in ’91? Bigger part? Offhand, I’d say Sarandon, but what a tough call (you’d really have to sit in the theatre with a stopwatch). Davis had a three-year old Oscar, so Sarandon would definitely be more due. Jodie Foster had a strong lead for “Silence”, so Sarandon’s chances of winning would have been greater in the more open supporting category. Is that what would have made their decision? How do you think it would have gone down, Mr. Holloway? And Mr. Karger, since we’re demanding answers from you tonight.
Mark-
That’s an excellent hypothetical! (I’m a movie/Oscar nerd, so I love this stuff.)
If the Academy were in “one or the other” mode in ’91, I’m feeling like you’re right: Sarandon would be placed in the lead race, and Davis would be pushed for supporting. The thing of it is, I’m not quite sure why I feel that way.
As you mentioned, the screen time is pretty much dead even. (Even more even than the Ledger/Gyllenhaal “Brokeback” situation – Ledger had a bit more time, I think.) Maybe the fact that Sarandon’s character/performance was more assertive tricks me into thinking she’s more of a lead than the more passive, “weaker” Thelma character. Maybe it’s because Davis had won her Oscar in the Supporting category, while Sarandon had a Lead nomination to her name (and, to this day, has only ever been nominated for lead actress).
The fact that Foster was such a lock for “Silence” is a fascinating wrinkle. I feel that the biggest reason Jennifer Hudson was pushed for “Supporting Actress” for “Dreamgirls” was because Helen Mirren was pretty much going to win for “The Queen.” (Beyonce was never going to get an Oscar nomination, so “one or the other” didn’t come into play.) That being said, I still think they would’ve been split, with Sarandon in the lead.
You hardly qualify as an Oscar nerd, Mr. Holloway. Last year you only contributed sixteen times to Dave Karger’s entire Oscar Watch blog (under your previous screen name). And many of those were just replies to your lover paige.
Too Obsessive-
Is there ANYTHING I can put over on you?? (BTW, I do most of my Oscar obsessing on my own, so I wasn’t stalking Karger’s blog.)
not sure how true this is, but at sundance, when the oscar buzz for kids are alright started, i heard at more than one event that warren beatty was furious annette bening’s role was being called supporting. never actually heard HIM say it, but i do know that an in-festival bulletin ran a correction after calling her role supporting, saying that it should have read “lead”…
Mr. Holloway…you might think about getting a restraining order…
LOL
Rest assured gentlemen that my only interests are Mr. Holloway’s views on pop culture and counting the most obscure details of popwatch columns. And I realize there are many people who post under the name Mark, but if you’re the one I’m thinking of you could learn something about not stalking Karger’s blog from Mr. Holloway, after you and your friend Jessica played Oscar trivia together for months in Karger’s 2008 Random Oscar Trivia column.
Now if you’ll excuse me I have to go boil a bunny.
Uh, guilty as charged, Too Obsessive.
And this is getting a little scary…
so hereafter is just an international version of crash then?
If there is any justice, then 3 of the 10 Best Picture slots will be filled with movies that came out this summer. ‘Toy Story 3′ and ‘Kids Are Alright’ are virtual locks, and ‘Inception’ should make it into the Top 10, similar to how ‘District 9′ snuck in last year.
I agree. If Up made it in last year, then I’m sure Toy Story 3 can achieve the same feat. The Kids Are All Right has been adored by critics, so I wouldn’t be surprised at all if it is nominated. And Inception…well, whether people admit it or not, one of the reasons the Best Picture field was expanded to 10 nominees was because of the absurd omission of critical and commercial hits like The Dark Knight and WALL-E two years ago. And if District 9 was able to sneak in last year, I don’t see why Inception shouldn’t be able to this year. And hopefully Christopher Nolan will be nominated for Best Director. I think he has a solid chance.
If the Oscars are doing 10 films again this year I’m sure you’ll be right. Are they still nominating 10 films? Anybody know?
I assume they are still nominating 10 films, mainly because I haven’t heard otherwise and I feel like if they were going to reduce it back to 5 films they would have said so already.
Does anyone know if the Academy is still going to have 10 nominees for Best Pic this year? I wasn’t sure if that was just a one-time thing they wanted to resurrect after having only 5 nominees for decades. Also, I’m not sure if I’m going to see The Town. I wish the trailer hadn’t given away such a seemingly key part of the plot (this is not a spoiler since the trailer CLEARLY shows that Affleck plays one of the robbers robbing his girlfriend, played by Rebecca Hall). If it gets stellar reviews, I’ll probably see it, after all Jon Hamm is in the movie
It isn’t a spoiler – from what I’ve heard, it’s revealed in the first half hour of the movie.
It’s not a spoiler. They give it away in the TRAILER and even on the novel’s book jacket.
I definitely think inception deserves to win best picture and nolan best director. he got snubbed 2 years ago and inception is a masterpiece
YES. And I realize it won’t happen, but I’d love if Marion Cotillard could get a best (supporting?) actress nom. I mean, she could be in a Uwe Boll flick and still be Oscar worthy.
So is there a chance Colin Firth can win the Oscar he deserved for A Single Man? I love Jeff Bridges, but it’s true.
So I take it you’d be incredibly p#ssed off if Jeff Bridges wins for “True Grit” this year and robs Firth in two consecutive years!
Tracy, I’m so with you. I love Jeff Bridges too, but I was so disappointed that Colin Firth didn’t win Best Actor for A Single Man. He was brilliant.
So was Jeff Bridges. He gave a mesmerizing performance of considerable range. He completely disappeared into his character.
I know. They were both fantastic, but everyone is going to still have their personal favorite. Mine was Firth, and I was disappointed he lost.
I’m with tracy.
Bridges was REALLY good in “Crazy Heart”, but it really was more of a “lifetime achievement” Oscar than anything.
@Mr. Holloway: Everyone in the category was AMAZING last year, so it didn’t really matter if Firth won or lost (to me). Unlike Carey Mulligan. Poor her. Curse you, Sandra Bullock!
m1:
Great point…EVERYONE was really terrific. (In fact, my personal favorites were Clooney and Renner.)
@m1: ITA. I like Sandra Bullock and all, but Carey Mulligan deserved that award. Helen Mirren, Gabouray Sidibe, Meryl Streep…they all acted circles around Sandra. Still, Carey is in Never Let Me Go- the book was quite good, so it may be another shot for her to win.
Firth was brilliant in A Single Man and made the movie. Bridges was great, but it felt like the storyline in Crazy Heart has been done so many times before. I’m really looking forward to The King’s Speech.
@Chris Martin: The storyline had been done to death, but Bridges made the achievement of bringing freshness to the storyline. Same with Maggie Gyllenhaal.
I haven’t really heard anything about 127 Hours but I love Franco so I’m glad he’s getting some recognition. Will have to look into it and see if it looks good. I’ve liked Danny Boyle’s other stuff, but it’s all so different.
How Do You Know is “a potential big gun” ??? What?
I thought Fox Searchlight had Rabbit Hole.
Aaah, the great Colin Firth! Hope he will win, cause he’s always wonderful!