Image Credit: Peter IovinoThe romantic comedy genre needs some intensive care after a bleak summer where the likes of Jennifer Aniston and Drew Barrymore could do little to attract audiences. Is Katherine Heigl the answer? The former Grey’s Anatomy star didn’t score opposite Ashton Kutcher in Killers this past July, but perhaps Josh Duhamel is a more appealing co-star. We’ll find out this weekend when the duo’s film, Life as We Know It, opens wide, opposite Disney’s Triple-Crown horserace flick, Secretariat, which is battling its own issues.
Disney’s feel-good horse flick is an important movie for the studio. They consider the Diane Lane-starrer a role model for the type of movies the studio wants to make. They might want to ease up on that strategy — while the marketers are trying to reach family audiences, especially the church-going crowd, it’s still unclear if either will show up.
The two newcomers are also competing against the defending champ, The Social Network. The David Fincher-directed drama opened to $22.4 million, and this weekend will be crucial in determining the film’s long-term health. Critics and audiences both seem to love it, and the buzz should lure those who couldn’t make it to the theater last week.
My Soul to Take, Universal’s latest from director Wes Craven, is also steeling itself for an uphill battle. The director’s first 3-D film bows one week after two other horror films were practically D.O.A. Neither Let Me In nor Case 39 grossed more than $5 million in their opening frames. It will be a surprise if this genre film, with little marketing might behind it, will do much either. Read on for my predictions.
1. Life as We Know It: $16 million
I’m not sure why the ad campaign for this romantic-comedy is built around an action shot of the stars chasing the baby, but maybe it will work. Tracking suggests it will have trouble surpassing $20 million. With Heigl’s lackluster track record at the box-office, it will be interesting to see if this high-concept idea brings in the moviegoers.
2. The Social Network: $15 million
This movie was crowned a media darling, but now the haters are out, denouncing the film’s opening weekend draw and already discounting its awards potential. One thing is clear: This weekend is crucial. The film needs to hold well for it to maintain the buzz required to make it all the way to the Oscars. Watch closely. A 50 percent drop would be considered a failure.
3. Secretariat: $10 million
Disney desperately wants Diane Lane’s horse movie to be the next Blind Side, but general tracking suggests a weak opening. The big question is: Are families coming out for this film? If they do, the numbers could surprise, but the film will more likely earn a fraction of Sandra Bullock’s surprise hit last fall.
4. Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga’Hoole: $6 million
Now that Zack Snyder has signed on to direct the Superman reboot, perhaps there will be renewed interest in his owl movie. The animated flick held up well in its second weekend in theaters, losing only 32 percent of its gross, but I would expect at least a 40 percent fall this time.
5. My Soul to Take: $5 million
It’s been five years since Wes Craven has directed a full-length feature. (Red Eye was the last one.) Unfortunately, I don’t think the horror veteran will draw much of an audience to his flick, starring Max Thieriot and John Magaro. If it earns beyond $5 million, it will be a feat, considering how poorly horror flicks have fared lately.
In limited release, Focus Features will open It’s Kind of a Funny Story while Weinstein Co. will bow the young John Lennon tale, Nowhere Boy. Come back this weekend for a full report.
Kathrine Heigl carries a film to number 1?? Yeah right *Rolls Eyes*. I’m surprised you guys are predicting it to be number 1. ‘Social Network’ will win the weekend again for sure. Kathrine Heigl is nothing but a hypocrite anyway. She slams Seth Rogen and Judd Apatow for making women look weak and stupid and the movies she chooses do just that! What an idiot she is.
I still think her non-Knocked Up characters are probably less offensive than her Knocked Up role. Granted, the movies are pretty dumb/predictable/meh, but yeah.
That shot of her with poo on her face tells me this is one movie to miss. I am so grossed out by that picture and I can’t believe that’s their “go to” shot for bringing folks in! It’s GROSS!!
Nicole, you have got to be the worst writer… please explain what exactly is high concept about Life As We Know It??? I’ll admit a minor twist in the “kid brings opposite attracts together” plot, but high concept, no. And Heigl’s box office isn’t exactly lack luster, even if the roles she choses are.
I wish someone would tell her that “starrer” is not a word… and even a proper word shouldn’t be used a million times in one article to describe something.
I wish someone tell you that your an A-hole! Who cares about the english language anymore fool? You people diss ausiellio (whatever) you diss matt, you diss this lady. What the hell! You are all english teachers is that it?
Too true! To warrant the term “high concept,” you need to actually be inventive. Inception = high concept! Life As We Know It = another product crapped out of the Hollywood rom-com blender.
Secretariat will be #1
I agree that The Social Network will be number one again, but I believe Secretariat will be number two. I went to an advance screening this week and people were cheering in their seats, even though everyone knows the outcome. It was an excellent movie, and Diane Lane was great as usual. And Katherine Heigl is just not that great an actress. All she does are those silly romcoms that anyone can do.
Bad box office numbers wouldn’t affect The Social Network’s path to the Oscars. It’s one of the best films of the year, everyone knows it, and it will be nominated in most of the major categories (the unknowns are how the actors will do). A 50% drop wouldn’t change that, though such a drop won’t happen anyways.
Exactly. A movie doesn’t have to be a box office smash to to pull in Oscar nominations.
Look at The Hurt Locker. What did it make like 15 mil?
Same with the one Halle Berry won the Oscar for, Monsters Ball. It only brought in 31 million in total but they still nominated her and several for the film. The Social Network deserves nominations. It is a great film.
Hmmm. I’m thinking you guys are missing the mark on the Heigl flick. It’s getting scathing reviews and looks like 800 other flicks that have come out this year.
No idea about Secretariat, but I’m sensing the movie has legs. Awards buzz is building, especially for Lane. So, it’ll be fine in the long run.
What part of the plot of Life As We Know It is supposed to be considered “high concept?”
As for The Social Network, it will still be nominated for Oscars even if it does drop 50% this weekend. It’s one of the best reviewed films of the year and has a great pedigree. Box office doesn’t always determine the Oscar race, as we saw last year with The Hurt Locker. But anyway, I think The Social Network will have a decent box office take when all is said and done.
Secretariat is definitely a wild card and the type of movie that’s hard to predict it’s success. Will be interesting to see where it plays strongest.
The Social Network has become a “water cooler” movie. You’re not in the know if you haven’t seen it. I think it’ll be #1 again.
What is it with Josh Duhamel and his movie choices?
If he’s not the romantic co-star in some lame rom-com (Tad Hamilton, When In Rome, Life As We Know It), then he’s the wannabe gung-ho co-star in some little-seen special effects extravaganza (Transformers 1, 2, 3, etc, etc).
And to the idiots, OBVIOUSLY Im being sarcastic in my previous statement… Transformers is definitely NO extravaganza, BWAHAHAHAHA
You’re totally right,Josh really does need a new agent. And PLEASE HOLLYWOOD stop putting Katherine Heigl in movies.She is the worst actress working today. Aren’t you paying attention to her film’s grosses? The moviegoers hate her.
The Social Network failed big time. $22 mil isn’t great considering the all the hypes!
Well, if word of mouth holds it steady for the coming weeks then I can still see the movie making a profit. It didn’t cost over 100mil to make afterall.
Exactly! as good as the film is, $22 million is nothing.
I’m sure the producers of Let Me In would disagree. They would have been happy to crack 10mil.
I don’t think The Social Network’s potential at nominations is what is at stake. The film, David Fincher, Aaron Sorkin, and Jesse Eisenberg will all be nominated. It’s the best reviewed film of the year. But I do think for it to hold its own against The King’s Speech for the BP win come Jan/Feb, a small drop is essential.
What impresses me more Nicole is how easy you write things like “With Heigl’s lackluster track record at the box-office..” without even doing a quick check in her brief box-office track of 4 movies of which 3 have opened north of 20mil. and Killers with 15.8; if that’s considered lacluster then you need to check again your evaluation system.
No way that Secretariat opens in 3rd. I predict 1st and over $20 million.