Disney/Pixar
Today my very early stab at guessing the 10 Best Picture nominees has been posted as part of Movie City News’ Gurus o’ Gold feature. There seems to be some consensus among the 14 of us Oscar predictors as to seven of the eventual nominees. After that it’s pretty much a field day of shot-in-the-dark prognostication. Here is my estimated list of 10 (ranked by probability of making the cut next January) with my reasoning for including each film. We’ll see how wrong I am in just a matter of months!
1. The King’s Speech As soon as I saw this British drama in early September I knew it had the potential to go all the way in at least one major category. Right now its star, Colin Firth, is the man to beat for Best Actor, and it’s an absolute lock for a Best Picture nomination as well.
2. True Grit Four of the 14 “Gurus” have the Coen brothers’ upcoming Western ranked first or second on their ballots. And no, none of us have actually seen it. This one is pure hunch on my part. Though strong trailers don’t always turn into great movies (I’m looking at you, Invictus.)
3. The Social Network The Facebook movie boasts the second-highest tally of No. 1 votes (behind The King’s Speech). After this week’s fantastic hold at the box office, it’s even more of a sure thing.
4. Inception There’s got to be one live-action blockbuster in there, and none has a better shot than Christopher Nolan’s mind-bending smash.
5. How Do You Know? Here’s the one case where I’m apparently the most alone in my thinking, as no other participant has the film on his or her list. But I have faith in the upcoming Reese Witherspoon romantic company based on writer/director James L. Brooks’ selected track record (Broadcast News, Terms of Endearment) and the positive buzz I’ve been hearing about costar Paul Rudd’s performance. Here’s hoping it’s not another Spanglish.
6. The Kids Are All Right The summer indie might not have sold out many theaters in the middle of the country, but on the coasts (where Oscar voters mainly live, of course) it was an unfettered hit.
7. Toy Story 3 Expect a lot of Lord of the Rings comparisons in the coming weeks. That trilogy did end up picking up a Best Picture trophy, but it was live-action. Still, there’s no denying Pixar’s latest achievement (the highest-grossing animated film of all time, by the way).
8. 127 Hours Here’s where the predictions start getting a little less sure-footed. Danny Boyle’s follow-up to Slumdog Millionaire impressed critics and audiences at Telluride and Toronto. But is the film too claustrophobic to go the distance?
9. Hereafter I totally fell for Clint Eastwood’s afterlife drama when I saw it at the Toronto film festival. Many critics are not fans. But I still feel like Eastwood’s ambitious work could be up the Academy’s alley.
10. Love and Other Drugs The Jake Gyllenhaal/Anne Hathaway comedic drama reminds me a lot of Up in the Air and Jerry Maguire (both past Best Picture nominees). And it’s perhaps the sexiest movie I’ve seen in years. It won’t be for everyone, but if most critics go for its blend of titillation and tragedy, then it’s a contender for one of the five “B-list slots.”
So what am I leaving out? Black Swan (probably a better shot at Best Actress)? Blue Valentine (my personal favorite, but likely too dark)? All arguments are encouraged. And don’t forget to follow me on Twitter (@davekarger) for ongoing Oscar updates.
I’ve only seen the trailer for “How Do You Know” but…really?? Best Picture?
I agree!
Dave Karger was a big “It’s Complicated” fan last year and that got exactly zero Oscar nominations. “How Do You Know” looks like a remarkably similar film headed down the exact same awards path.
James L. Brooks is usually supported by the Academy (Terms of Endearment, As Good As It Gets, Broadcast News), so I wouldn’t be too surprised if it ends up getting nominations. He’s one of the few directors out there that give actresses plum roles – Good news for Reese Witherspoon.
Black Swan dude, Black Swan!!
Nah, it seems like pretentious crap and that girl from that 70s show cannot act. at all
Agree, Black Swan i think has a better shot than Hereafter or Love and Other Drugs. Especially from the early reviews.
Sedie, Mina Kunis won an acting award at VIFF for the film and has received a lot of buzz not just for this film but since Forgetting Sarah Marshall, so I’m sure she can act.
And the film does look awesome.
Any list that doesn’t include “The Human Centipede” has zero credibility in my book.
Oh, man, I’m a die-hard horror junkie, but when I heard the synopsis of The Human Centipede and saw a few pics, I said, “I’m out.” Seriously…that is some messed up sh-t. Good for you for sticking it out.
I was so wanting to see this movie, when i did see it on a pay per veiw event, i felt odd afterwards, its one film I will never say, hey i wanna see that again.
it makes me sick to my stomach every time I hear the name, and I only saw the trailor. We have to draw the line somewhere…
as a struggling actor, I’d sooner do porn.
Sorry but I loved this movie, I have seen it a few times, both for work and personal. Its like a really bad accident where you cant help but watch even though you want to look away. After watching, yes you get that “I need a shower” feel but I will say its one of the greatest horror flicks i have seen in a long while. Here’s to HC the 2nd Sequence.
IMO, the fact that the writer left out “Winter’s Bone” makes this article a total fail.
It’s a list of probable nominees, not deserving nominees. Were that the case, I’d agree: “Winter’s Bone” is probably the finest movie I saw this year.
GO TOY STORY 3!
I am so glad Love and Other Drugs was not left out! It was a fantastic movie and deserves the best pic nod!! Hathaway must get recognized too!! She had an amazing performancing in this movie!
I! Love! Exclamation marks!!
I saw this at a screening and the reception was frigid. The movie was all over the place. I get the comparisons to Up in the Air and Jerry McGuire, but this one does not measure up. The tone is incredibly inconsistent, and every scene in which Josh Gad appears brings the movie to a new level of awkward. Jake and Anne are both great, but the script and direction are mediocre at best. Not to mention the complete waste of Jill Clayburgh and George Segal. Not sure this can be fixed before November.
I have seen precisely 2 of these movies (Inception, The Social Network). I liked them both. However, it’s way too early to argue about Oscar contenders considering I haven’t seen most of these….
It’s too bad that my favorite movie of 2010, “How to Train Your Dragon,” has no chance. I loved “Toy Story 3,” but HTTYD was just so much fun.
I’m in agreement with The Devil! Loved How to Train your Dragon. Unfortunately HTTYD is Sham to Toy Story’s Secretariat. Unfortunately born (released) in the same year.
How to Train Your Dragon is the best movie Dreamworks has made in a long time. Still, it has nothing on Toy Story 3.
I agree too. If only the new top ten meant we could let in two amazing animated flicks rather than just the token. People were entertaining Fantastic Mr. Fox last year, but IMO HTTYD is a bit better than Fantastic Mr. Fox.
Toy story 3 ..really? I dont see why everyone loved it so much. Didn’t we almost have the same toys getting worn out , forget abou them story in the second one? Then a boring re hash of a million escape movies…I bet you people enjoyed the boring alice in wonderland as well, and the mad hatter? Was he actually mad or just a little wierd, and a hero? Johnny (who lost his touch after the first pirates)could have made him actually stark raving mad, with brief fits of sanity. Ruined, but not as bad as the newer charlie and choc. that movie was dismal. Dragon gets my pick! Add shrek 20 to the trash bin as well.
Oh and How to Train Your Dragon is so much more original than Toy Story 3? Everyone is entitled to their opinions, but you don’t need to act like your taste in movies is so much better than everyone else’s.
I can’t see why there’s so much love for Toy Story 3. The first was fantastic – this one not so much. Train your Dragon was better – easily. Just an opinion. But the right one.
Wow MEso SOup, you have no grasp of English vocabulary. An opinion CAN’T be right, which is why it is not called a fact. For future reference, go to dictionary.com.
I’m fairly confident MEso SOup is aware of the definitions and is just joking. Still How to Train Your Dragon is not EASiLY better. Both critics and audiences would disagree with you.
Best Picture needs to go back down to five nominees.
I agree, or there should be 5 noms for Best Drama and 5 for Best Comedy.
hmm..Maybe a leaf from the Dog Show world: Best Drama, Best Comedy, Best Animated, then pick Best Picture from the pack?
I’m sorry but I don’t agree. Ten nominations help get movies that reside in genres not typical of getting a spot on the Best Picture list such as fantasy & scifi. One of my favorite films of 2009 was District 9 and no way would it have made it without just the 5 slots.
…but then there’s films like The Blind Side which will continue to pick up Best Picture nominations – that would NEVER stand a chance if they switched it back to five…and I’m all for five nominees.
The prediction that I find nobody else backing but me is “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1″. I know it sounds insane, but I’d put good money on at least three box office blockbusters making it into the race each year, and this one certainly looks a lot more substantial and emotional than the rest, and that’s right up the Academy’s alley.
Not insane at all. HP franchise is consistently well reviewed and PoA was the best movie of 2004, not that boxer Swank movie that won BP. Anyway, Hp`s chances don`t depend on reviews as much as on WB`s willingness to campaign it for the Best Picture. Which is very unlikely cause they have much safer bet in Inception. Also, as much as I would love to see the last HP movie get there, summer release doesn`t indicate that WB expect Best Picture conclusion to their most enduring franchise. HP just ain`t AMPAS thing, I guess.
I agree. It depends on whether WB will campaign for HP. They will definitely campaign for Inception. However, if the latest HP movie does really well in critic reviews and box office then I could see them doing it. I’m not a HP movie fan but I do hope it’s fans would get at least one nomination for the franchise.
I totally agree. Nobody is even looking at the movie. None of the movies has gotten below a 77% on Rotten Tomatoes and they need at least one other blockbuster in the bunch. It would definitely compel many HP fans to watch and increase ratings, which is what anybody cares about anymore.
Franchise films don’t typically get nominated for Best Picture. The conclusion of the “Lord of the Rings” trilogy was an exception.
Brett, All the LOTR films were nominated for Best Picture. Return of the King won, mainly as many thought as the final film rewarding all that had gone before it. Perhaps, similarly, the final HP film will receive kudos as well, if it is well received critically, outside of the usual noms for sound and CGI effects.
@RubyBaby: The Two Towers wasn’t nominated. The first and third were.
@ m1: The Two Towers was nominated, along with Chicago, The Hours, The Pianist and the Gangs of New York in 2002.
@Mr. Know-It-All: You’re right, sorry. All 3 were the highest grossing BP nominees for their years.
TOO. EARLY.
It’s mid-October. The Oscars are in January. Haven’t you already bought your Christmas cards? You’re WAY behind the times.
The Oscars are never in January…
They will be in 2012.
the golden globes are in january though, and nominations for that will be announced in december.
Um, What do you think about welcome to the rileys? just curious….i Loved it, and it was a huge hit at sundance, what are the chances of the various actors getting noms?
What about Winter’s Bone?
I also think Toy Story 3 and The Kids Are All Right should be higher than How Do You Know?.
Another thing….I feel it is not great to put a movie on the list that hasn’t come out yet. I have seen several trailers for movies where the movie turned out to be a bust.
….No Winter’s Bone? That’s probably the best movie of the year so far, IMO.
It was being talked up early on but now seems to have fallen off the radar. Maybe for Best Actress…hopefully?
No love for “Black Swan?” I’ve heard so many good things about it!
I definitely put “Inception,” “The Kids Are All Right” and “Toy Story 3″ at the top of the list of what I’ve seen this year.
yes, where is Black Swan a movie that`s been getting much better buzz than Hearafter (Clint can`t be nominated for everything,come now!)?
Inception was complete Nolan over indulgence…. utter crap in a trixter’s disguise…..
Compared to most summer blockbusters, it was effin’ Shakespeare.
Inception will get nominated, but it will not be in the top 5.
The Social Network
The King’s Speech
Winter’s Bone
127 Hours
Toy Story 3
Also, I would love to see Easy A get nominated (but not win). It was hilarious.
I doubt Easy A will get an Oscar nod. But it’s likely that the Golden Globes will recognize Easy A in it’s comdey categories & maybe a nod for Emma stone, too(fingers crossed)!
Most definitely Inception, Toy Story 3, and Social Network as those were all great films. I haven’t seen any of the others but I would really like to see Hereafter and King’s Speech. Now call me crazy, but one film that looks like a possible contender: Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows pt. 1. The trailer just looks that great (and its source material is incredible, so we know the plot will be good), and with 10 nominees its chances are as good as any other blockbuster film.
Hereafter wasn’t very good, and has no shot at a nomination.
Eastwood quit making films for the Academy quite a while ago. His actors still occasionally get nominated, but I honestly think he’s content with 4 noms and 2 wins. Let the corporations campaign whom they wish.