Ladies and Gentlemen, we may actually have a race on our hands this weekend at the movies, now that the once-ignored old-fogey actioner Red is gaining momentum on Jackass 3D when it comes to tracking. Men over 30 are still the audience most anticipating Red — which stars Bruce Willis, Helen Mirren and John Malkovich — but if Summit Entertainment can lure the ladies, the film could finish first. On the opposite spectrum, Jackass is appealing to the young male moviegoer, as expected. But there’s the fact that Johnny Knoxville’s last endeavor, Jackass Number Two, earned $29 million back in 2006 — that gross coupled with the extra charge for 3-D on this go-around still makes the gross-out stunt comedy a formidable opponent. Read on for my predictions.
1. Jackass 3D: $30 million
It would probably be a big disappointment if Paramount couldn’t exceed its opening weekend gross earned by Jackass Number Two four years ago. What with all the ridiculous promotion and 3-D extras, it seems like a $30 million opening is in the bag. Yet, with the box office acting so strange lately, and no film opening in the $30 million range since The Expendables bowed in mid-August, anything is possible.
2. Red: $25 million
Perhaps this is too generous an opening number. I know the studio would be happy with $20 million. But it’s rather encouraging to see some uptick in tracking data heading into this weekend. I’m sure the Paramount folks thought they were in the clear for the first slot this frame. But with a wide swath of the movie-going public showing interest in this group of retired CIA officials, a surprise showing could be in Red‘s future.
3. The Social Network: $10 million
The David Fincher-directed drama has already earned close to $51 million at the box office — with room to grow. Last weekend saw the Facebook drama fall a scant 31 percent, an encouraging sign for both its box office and its awards potential. I’d look for a steeper drop this frame, but perhaps it won’t fall more than 35 percent, considering how strong word-of-mouth is on this must-see movie.
4. Secretariat: $7.5 million
It may not have had much of an opening, but this feel-good horse racing flick could actually hold in well. Audiences love the movie, families can go together to see it, and word-of-mouth could have an impact this frame. If the film falls 40 percent, it would hold in nicely. This definitely won’t be Disney’s version of The Blind Side, as its marketers predicted, but a strong hold could keep it in theaters a bit longer.
5. Life As We Know It: $7 million
It’s going to be a tight race between this Katherine Heigl-starrer and Secretariat, though I’d give Secretariat the edge in its sophomore session. Expect a 50 percent fall on Life, as few men will be caught dead in the theater.
Opening limited this frame is the right-wing documentary I Want Your Money, while Warner Bros. will bow Clint Eastwood’s supernatural drama Hereafter in six theaters ahead of its wide release next weekend. Meanwhile, Fox Searchlight will open its Oscar bait, the Hilary Swank-starrer Conviction, in 11 theaters this weekend.
UPDATE: Jackass 3D earns $20 million on Friday; RED earns $7M
My god!! What kind of country do we live in when Jackass 3D is expected to open at number 1?? Why do I continue to live in America?? Canada, I’m coming.
You’re free to go anytime.
oh! don’t OVER Idolize Canada…did you see who’s our Prime Minister?
LOL, a salient point. I have dual citizenship and enjoy having a foot on both sides of the border.
I agree with you. Is Jackass the name of the movie or anyone stupid enough to pay to see it?
You’re a freaking idiot.
Probably the same crowd that went to see Vampires Suck. Stupid teens that want a dark theater to make out in, but mostly the demographic of immature boys who like to make fun of things but have no credible taste or sense of humor of their own (that goes beyond, “That’s gay!”)…as evidenced by their choice in comedy.
Why don’t you go to church, loser. Punk.
Is church in 3-D? Cuz if it is I’m totally all over that sh*t.
Well, to be fair, it isn’t just America.
Though I agree, it’s sad that crap movies like “Vampires Suck” make bank at the box office.
…meanwhile, great films that are unique and well received critically like “Let Me In” or “Winter’s Bone” and “Scott Pilgrim” struggle to find an audience.
Shut up… Open your mind a little and freaking relaxe!
Shut up, open your mind a little a freakin relaxe!
I saw RED Monday night, and I think 25 million is being overly generous. I personally liked THE LOSERS a hell of a lot more (I felt there was much more action & humor, and a younger, hipper cast) but considering what that film’s box office was this Spring…I really think RED will be lucky if it cracks 20 mil. Regardless of Bruce Willis, Morgan Freeman, and Helen Mirren starring in it, its an ammusing film, but nothing memorable.
Going to a screening of JACKASS in an hour or so, but honestly if it wasnt a free press ticket, I’d be staying home watching FRINGE.
Ok, so JACKASS was crude & funny, but I have gotta say, I dunno how they got an R rating, cause there was more penis in the movie than some pornos! I mean I laughed for 90 seconds, but the best 3D joke was the surprise beginning. (I won’t ruin it with a spoiler) So get there early if you’re planning on laughing!
90 minutes, not seconds, oops! haha
There’s nothin’ wrong with excessive penis in 3-D or whatever. It don’t make you gay to like watching a penis in 3-D. It’s like science. And even if it did make you gay, so what? I know a bunch of gay dudes and they all say they like it. Alls I’m sayin’ is that 3-D genitals is, like, proof that we finally made it to the future.
Dude….I am gay. It was more of a warning for people that aren’t into that kinda of crude humor. But thanks for clearing that up, when I think I did a pretty good job myself by already being gay and not thinking that it mattered by the review I gave.
Huh. That’s funny. Cuz I coulda swore that you were non-gay. Sure, you said Jackass 3D had more penises in it than a porno. That means you were probably watchin’ penis porn. But that don’t mean that you’re gay. I seen that stuff. Sometimes it happens both by accident and on purpose. I’m cool with it. I think everyone should be allowed to watch penises either in 3-D or in porn without everyone else tryin’ to figure out if they’re gay or not gay just cuz they interested in seeing totally large numbers of penises in their entertainment.
I feel bad for people that actually waste money to see Jackass. And in 3D!! Who would want to pay that? I’m glad to say that I spend my money on substantial movies like The Town and The Social Network. I’ll bet the same people who will laugh at Jackass 3D are going to be the same people who laughed at Grown-Ups. I guess people are too easily entertained by stupid, immature films rather than films of quality. How sad.
It’s sad that some would want to see a guilt-free, no-thinking movie to take their minds off of things? No, what’s really sad is a d-bag like you, dominic, who thinks that they’re superior because they look down on harmless fun. How sad.
Wow! What’s it like to be up on that pedestal, Domenick? And, how can you watch any movies at all — even “substantial movies” (and how lucky those movies were to be chosen by you!) — with your nose so high in the air? Doesn’t it hurt your eyes? Or, maybe it’s your head that’s somewhere else. Enjoy yourself, judging people; meanwhile, Johnny Knoxville and the rest are going to be raking in the money, comfortable in the knowledge that they don’t have to try to meet your standards to be successful.
Dominic FTW!
Kids these days are all fat, drunk, and stupid.
You say that like it’s not the adults’ fault (for the education system and food they’re given).
and that’s no way to go through life. LOL!
Dude. Is that movie about the dude that made a website that people use to tell other people that they ‘just learned to make an awesome flan’ or that they ‘just woke up and they’re tired’ in 3-D too? Cuz I’d see it if they put it in the 3-D. But otherwise it’s just a movie about a website where people say totally unhelpful sh*t about the dumb stuff they do all day but not in 3-D. In 1-D. You don’t need any cool glasses for that sh*t, you just gotta be bored enough to check it out. And even then, you wish you had not.
People sometimes want escapist entertainment, different strokes for different folks.
Though I do agree I wish more thoughtful and mature narrative films like “Let Me In”, “Black Swan”, “Winter’s Bone” and “Never Let Me Go” were getting far more support from the public.
Black Swan isn’t even out yet.
Actually I’m an adult and I am going to go see Jackass 3D. I have seen The Social Network, Howl, Never Let Me Go and Let Me In, in the last few weeks so it’s not like I don’t appreciate more “sophisticated/intellectual” movies. And Jackass 3D did just show at MoMA so there is maybe something to be said about it.
I didn’t see Grown-Ups, and had no desire to.
Way to generalize Dominic.
I’m going to see Reds. helen Mirren looks HOT toting those assault rifles. The woman is 65 years old, why is she so sexy? It doesn’t make any sense.
COunt me in for Reds as well. Love Helen Mirren and I think she is divine. I think she is sexy because she is confident – nothing sexier than that!
Anyone want to bet on Conviction’s per theater average? I would hazard a guess between $30-$40k.
As long as Red does well then I don’t care if Jackass makes number one or not.
Um, isn’t this the week that movies became obsolete?
‘Red’ was fun. And I had no desire to see mongoloids bash each other with whiffle ball bats.
bored… Dannon Farrald facebook
Honestly people need to realise that a lot of people like going to the movies for the escapism. they don’t wanted to be reminded of how much their lives suck. Seeing a couple of jackasses dick around for 90 minutes may be just what someone needs at the end of a week of unsuccesful job hunting, bad relationships, home foreclosures, whatever. People also like to watch intellectual movies as well. I have seen the Social Network, and the Town, and Red and will watch Jackass later.
Don’t judge people for wanting to be entertained.
I would like to think that once the people going to see Jackass 3D realize that it is going to involve a fair amount of genitals being thrust at the camera they might change their mind.
Yeah. But you’d be wrong. People LIKE having genitals thrust at the camera. Including you. Come on. Be honest, man. You dig that sh*t.
Haha. I like it how people are dissing Jackass 3D here.
What do you think Red is? Hollywood garbage. A script written for 4 older stars, and 4 older stars were cast in it. That is the pitch, and the premise. In that vein I’d much rather see the Expendables, at least the film doesn’t claim to be serious — much like how Jackass 3D doesn’t.
I saw Jackass 3D last night, it was well worth it, and the only time I’d watch Red would be on HBO on demand in 4 years, when I’m drunk at 2 am and want to make fun of the dimples on Morgan Freeman’s face. Boring as hell.