Image Credit: Jaap BuitendijkA cornucopia of new releases will attempt to steal Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows‘ thunder. Fat chance. This holiday weekend, Potter is the ultimate box-office weapon — prepared to handle any adversary. His biggest challenger arrives in the animated form of Disney’s Tangled, but by the end of this weekend, Rapunzel could very well be sporting Emma Watson’s hairdo. As for the extremely revealing romantic comedy Love and Other Drugs, Dwayne Johnson’s R-rated action movie Faster, and the Cher and Christina Aguilera musical Burlesque — well, they should all be happy just to be sitting at the dining table. Harry Potter is mighty hungry, and this Thanksgiving weekend, he’s coming back for seconds. Here are my predictions for the three-day weekend:
1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 1: $53 million
After consuming $125 million its opening weekend, Deathly Hallows grossed $8.8 million and $10.3 million on Monday and Tuesday, respectively, bringing its five-day domestic total to a staggering $144.1 million. So clearly Muggles are still very interested in the fantasy flick, and that should continue to be the case this weekend. A second-week decline of about 58 percent seems in order. While that may appear to be a steep drop, keep in mind that Deathly Hallows‘ debut weekend was particularly front-loaded. (It made $24 million from Thursday midnight screenings alone). By Sunday night, the movie should be sitting with a belt-bursting cumulative total of at least $220 million.
2. Tangled: $35 million
This animated retelling of the Rapunzel fairy tale is being released in 3,603 theaters, of which nearly 70 percent will be projecting the PG musical in 3-D. Those premium-ticket surcharges, in addition to the film’s favorable reviews and Disney’s omnipresent marketing, should help push the movie past $30 million for the weekend. By comparison, Disney’s most recent non-Pixar animated feature, The Princess and the Frog, opened wide last December to $24.2 million. But with Tangled‘s action sequences (and male co-lead) being heavily promoted, young boys should show more interest this time than they did with Princess. And for family audiences that have already seen Deathly Hallows (or with children too young to see that PG-13 film), Tangled will likely be their top entertainment choice.
3. Burlesque: $13 million
The critics aren’t too impressed with this $55 million musical, but that shouldn’t deter supporters of Christina Aguilera and/or Cher from checking it out. Sony released Rent five years ago during the same Thanksgiving frame, and even with that Broadway musical’s legion of fans, the film version could only muster $10 million its first weekend. Burlesque should perform a tad better, thanks to the beauty of inflation.
4. Megamind: $12.5 million
Even though the DreamWorks Animation superhero comedy has a new 3-D competitor in Tangled, Thanksgiving weekend is very kind to family films. Expect a drop of only 22 percent.
5. Faster: $12 million
After a parade of comedies and family fare, Dwayne Johnson is back in his first action vehicle since 2005′s Doom. The R-rated Faster — in which Johnson plays a revenge-seeking ex-con armed with guns, knives, and a 1970 Chevrolet Chevelle SS — should appeal to those who prefer their Thanksgiving movies to be a bit, well, bloodier. Made for $24 million, Faster should bring in half of that over the three-day weekend.
6. Love and Other Drugs: $10 million
Despite all the talk about Jake Gyllenhaal and Anne Hathaway’s aversion to clothes in this R-rated romantic comedy, Fox’s Love and Other Drugs is burdened with an unwieldy title and a fair share of mediocre reviews. Ultimately, this is an adult date movie being released on a weekend when families reign supreme. Look for an initially soft opening, with a potentially more promising prognosis a week or two down the line.
Mega-mega-megamind!
Pixar films are cinematic gold and modern day classics!! Dreamworks flicks, Ice Age sequels, The Incredibles knock-offs and Happy Feet as owls are pure pop trash!!!
Cher is a pig, Xtina is a tramp, Ann Hathoway is one uglyyyy girl. Who will see these movies, NOT ONE PERSON.
I love how much time you waste trying to mess with people on here, but come on even Larry David would never deny that Anne Hathaway is one of the hottest women out there.
Larry David = Idiot.
i will
Larry David your so shallow it’s no wonder Cheryl left you!
Love and other drugs looks good…Larry shut up.
Love and Other Drugs is actually really good. I saw it at a screening a few weeks back. Much, much better then I was expecting.
Then why does it have a 42% on Rotten Tomatoes? I wanted to see it until I read the reviews.
Since when does every person on the planet have to agree with the critical consensus? I’m sure to a lot of people it is a good movie.
Larry David is a moron. He stole the name of my hero.
I’m going for round 3 of Deathly Hallows. None of the new releases look appealing enough.
I’ll be going for round 3 as well
Seen it Twice in the last 6 days alone. Will be at least 3 or 4. My parents want to see it with me when its been out for a while.
Seeing Harry for the second time tonight!
Burlesque looks fairly mediocre, but a scantily clad Christina Aguilera will get me into the theatre this weekend. Left hand, this weekend, thy name is Christina.
Unrelated, but how great does daniel radcliffe look with that 5′oclock shadow??
My thoughts exactly. Nomnomnomnom.
OH I KNOW! Geez, its like I never stepped back and actually looked at how hunky and hot Rupert and Daniel are. They certainly ARE MEN now. And it shows in this one, both muscular, have 5′clock shadows, Im drooling…
He looks mighty sexy. I’ve always though DanRad was hot. He’s got that classic dark hair, light eyes look going on.
luv HP: Deathly Hallows! Will definately watch it again!
Might want to rethink those predictions, Deadline is reporting that Tangled’s opening day was almost DOUBLE it’s initial prediction. Now Disney is expecting an opening weekend in the high 60 millions!
And you might want to reread the Deadline article more closely. It says that while Tangle will open bigger than expected, it STILL won’t beat DH, which Deadline projects to have an $85M-$90M holiday five-day total.
“Now Disney is expecting an opening weekend in the high 60 millions!”
And that $60M expectation is for the FIVE-day weekend, not the THREE-day. Did you even read the article?
Did I say DH would be beaten by Tangled? Reread MY post, I just said Tangled was doing way better than expected. I never said HP would be beaten! Geez! You Harry Potter fans sure are paranoid!
With Potter doing such moneymaking business last week my bet is on the Disney newcomer “Tangled.”
No way cultirual ignoramous
harry potter rules and will kick tangleds hairy little ass
The blatant pro-Potter bias on EW is what’s “staggering”. Gee, I wonder if that’s because EW and Potter are owned by the same company.
Or maybe because Harry Potter is actaully popular and loved.
Don’t see that attention for other Warner related stuff.
*COUGH*greenlantern*COUGH* You’re an idiot.
OH right…Thats why up until this month we heard nothing but Glee and Twilight. Moron. Does Summit and Fox own EW too.
So what’s the excuse for EW constantly fluffing Twilight and Glee? Or Lost when it was still on? Or Dancing With the Stars?
I really see Deathly Hallows keeping Dark KNight numbers and not dropping 50%.
And to be fair Tarc, EW is bias towards anything with a rapid enough following, look at Twilight, at Glee. If something is hyped up enough, EW will hype it up beyond measure and give a whole new meaning to overkill.
Didn’t the last harry potter film come in second behind G-Force in its second weekend? I am pretty sure it did.Either way Tangled will beat it I bet. Harry Potter’s buzz is gone so it’s all about Tangled
I know I am so freaking pumped to see Tangled at least twice this weekend – once with fam, once with friends.
are you 10? Who would pay to see Tangled once, let alone twice. Im going to see HP again
I saw it yesterday and it was a good movie, but really NOT worth seeing more than once. Save your money.
I went to see HP again yesterday on a day off from my classes. The theater was packed, at noon, on a weekday. There’s plenty of people still buzzing about it, believe me.
HBP came out during the summer. It’s almost impossible for a film to say at the top when there’s a blockbuster coming out every weekend. Harry Potter’s buzz is not gone. A lot of people haven’t seen it yet, because of work or school and since HP is marketed as a family film…I think it will do very well over Thanksgiving weekend. But you never know…animated flicks can’t be underestimated.