Image credit: Suzanne Tenner
Earlier this week I posted a clip of Natalie Portman from Black Swan, a film that will certainly earn her a Best Actress nomination. The other front-runner in the race this year is obviously Annette Bening for her fierce turn as a red wine-loving mom in The Kids Are All Right. Beyond that, it’s anyone’s guess. How is the rest of the field looking at this point? Here’s my current rundown:
BEST BETS
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
POSSIBILITIES
Halle Berry, Frankie & Alice
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Lesley Manville, Another Year
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
LONG SHOTS
Anne Hathaway, Love & Other Drugs
Sally Hawkins, Made in Dagenham
Diane Lane, Secretariat
Gwyneth Paltrow, Country Strong
Naomi Watts, Fair Game
Who just missed making the cut? Tilda Swinton for I Am Love and Hilary Swank for Conviction. And I know that some of my Oscar prognosticator friends feel I’m overly bullish on Julianne Moore. What do you all think?
Check out my Best Picture and Best Director predictions as well.
I think Jennifer Lawrence has a better shot than Julianne Moore.
I wish How do You Know would come out already. I would throw Resse Witherspoon in there, but nobody has seen this film.
The Kids are All Right and Annette Bennings performance are both over-hyped. Sure she deserves and Oscar but not for her work here. But if Sandy Bullock can win anything for the Blindside I guess so can Annette Benning.
Reese Witherspoon has given some great performances in the past and definitely deserved the win for Walk the Line. That being said, she hasn’t given a memorable performance since, and based on the previews HDYK looks mediocre.
HD i totally agree with you. i didn’t find much that amazing in that movie.
absolutely. i felt that movie was a handful of great performances being led by a ham handed script that destroyed the rest of the project. the handling of mark ruffalo’s character alone is enough for me ultimately hate both lead female characters.
I think Kids Are All Right is overrated, but Annette Bening is definitely NOT overrated. She’s the best part of that film.
Can two actresses both get Best Actress nods from the same film or does one have to be demoted to supporting?
33 movies have had two actresses nominated in the same category. Of those thirty-three: 7 won Best Picture and 13 were nominated for Best Picture.
The 11 winners came from 6 Best Picture winners, 3 Best Picture nominees and 2 from movies that weren’t nominated for Best Picture (one of them was nominated for Best Director).
1939 Supporting- Hattie McDaniel won and Olivia de Havilland for Gone with the Wind.
1940 Supporting- Teresa Wright and Patricia Collinge for The Little Foxes.
Holm
1941 Supporting- Teresa Wright won and May Whitty for Mrs. Miniver.
1942 Supporting- Gladys Cooper and Anne Revere for The Song of Bernadette.
1945 Supporting- Eve Arden and Ann Blyth for Mildred Pierce.
1947 Supporting- Celeste Holm won and Anne Revere for Gentlemen’s Agreement.
1948 Supporting- Ellen Corby and Barbara Bel Geddes for I Remember Mama.
1949 Supporting- Celeste Holm and Elza Lanchaster for Come to the Stable,
Ethel Barrymore and Ethel Walters for Pinky,
(Oscar went to 5th nominee: Mercedes McCambridge for All the King’s Men)
1950 Lead- Bette Davis and Anne Baxter, Supporting- Celeste Holm and Thelma Ritter for All About Eve
1954 Supporting- Claire Trevor and Jan Sterling for The High and the Mighty
1956 Supporting- Eileen Hacket and 11-year-old Patricia Mcormack for The Bad Seed
1957 Supporting- Hope Lange and Diane Varsi for Peyton Place
1959 Lead- Katharine Hepburn and Elizabeth Taylor for Suddenly, Last Summer
Supporting- Juanita Moore and Susan Kohner for Imitation of Life
1965 Supporting- Maggie Smith and Joyce Redman for Othello
1970 Supporting- Helen Hayes won and Maureen Stapleton for Airport
1971 Supporting- Cloris Leachman won and Ellen Burstyn for The Last Picture Show
1973 Supporting- 10-year-old Tatum O’Neal won and Madeline Kahn for Paper Moon
1975 Supporting- Lily Tomlin and Ronnie Blakely for Nashville
1977 Lead- Shirley MacLaine and Anne Bancroft for The Turning Point
1979 Supporting- Meryl Streep won and Jane Alexander for Kramer vs. Kramer
1982 Supporting- Jessica Lange won and Teri Garr for Tootsie
MacLaine and Winger
1983 Lead- Shirley MacLaine won and Debra Winger for Terms of Endearment
1985 Supporting- Oprah Winfrey and Margaret Avery for The Color Purple
1988 Supporting- Sigourney Weaver and Joan Cusack for Working Girl
1989 Supporting- Anjelica Huston and Lena Olin for Enemies- A Love Story
1991 Lead- Susan Sarandon and Geena Davis for Thelma and Louise
1994 Supporting- Dianne Wiest won and Jennifer Tilly for Bullets Over Broadway
2000 Supporting- Kate Hudson and Frances McDormand for Almost Famous
2001 Supporting- Maggie Smith and Helen Mirren for Gosford Park
2002 Supporting- Catherine Zeta-Jones won and Queen Latifah for Chicago
2006 Supporting- Adriana Baraza and Rinko Kikuchi for Babel [11 winners out of 34 double nominees]
Nice piece of research! How interesting that in the “good old days,” women had great roles in movies that made money.
jared4ever, you forgot anna kendrick and vera farmiga, both nominated for up in the air.
jared4ever, you forgot Amy Adams and Viola Davis for Doubt.
Would people stop telling me what I forgot. I didn’t forget anything. I wrote the list back in 2006. There’s no pleasing some people.
The likely nominees:
Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right”
Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”
Julianne Moore, “The Kids Are All Right”
Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Diane Lane could sneak in for “Secretariat.” Never underestimate the power a 4-star rated film by Roger Ebert.
Nope. It’s going to be:
Annette Bening
Natalie Portman
Halle Barry
Nicole Kidman
Oops. Forgot Michelle Williams!
At the same time “Knowing” is a Roger Ebert four-star film…
Lol, that’s right it was. Kinda makes you wonder if he was on crack when he watched it.
I really can’t see both Bening and Moore making it in for TKAAR. I think it’ll just be Bening.
Noomi Rapace from Dragon Tatttoo
A couple months ago, I would have disagreed. But she seems to have a lot of support and I wonder if the blockbuster status of the books my elevate her profile, even if English language films are coming soon.
I’m surpised not to see her on the list. EW was giving Noomi strong buzz a few months back. Maybe supporting actress?
Dragon Tattoo I believe was not released in the USA during the Oscar qualifying timeframe. “The Girl Who Played With Fire” would be eligible.
I have to go with Rapace from Dragon Tattoo. Lisbeth’s a complex character that she brilliantly brought to life. I think that it’s a foreign language film will actually hurt her chances.
I don’t know. I’m really hoping Williams (and Gosling, respectively) can get in there. Any word from the MPAA on the movie’s rating?
The Weinsteins are suing last I heard.
It was finally included on an MPAA bulletin yesterday, and Weinstein will appeal.
Portman and Bening are locks right now (and I think it will be one of them who eventually wins). I also think Lawrence has a good shot (she was in a small indie movie that came out months ago and yet people still remember her…her staying power says a lot). Williams was boosted due to the controversy regarding the “Blue Valentine” NC-17 rating. In my mind, the last spot will be a toss-up between Moore and Kidman. But it’s safe to say that this was, indeed, a killer year for lead actress.
Kidman is a lock. Believe that.
Definitely—Rabbit Hole was incredible. I haven’t ever seen her connect with a character more than she did with Becca.
Tilda Swintin in ‘I am Love’ was fantastic, she definitely deserves a nod for her work… and it was in Italian! And I would put Benning over Moore for ‘The Kids are Alright’
Seriously how are people overlooking her? She did a film in a foreign language, with a different accent! Plus she was mesmerizing and convincing.
Let me join in the praise for Tilda Swinton in “I am Love.” Thanks for remembering her. I was spellbound for the two plus hours. She even had a Russian speaking part in addition to all the Italian dialogue.
I wish she had a better shot, but this year is just too crowded in this category.
though Swinton’s perf is notable , not everyone loved “I am Love”. which may not matter , but i had say it it.
Just cause Love is in the title doesn’t make it lovable!
I have it like this:
Portman
Bening
Kidman
Lawrence
Moore
I’d pimp my site, but don’t want to get in trouble.
Moore is the only one that I think is not a lock. The other 4 are just too strong.
Go ahead and pimp it. Some of us are interested in what you have to say. Besides, Big Dave doesn’t read this column.
I’ve got it:
Portman
Kidman
Bening
Williams
Moore
with Portman winning going away.
ITA with this line up.
I really don’t get all the intense Bening love. I thought she was good in the movie, but of the two Moore was much more interesting and compelling… Bening’s character was much more cold. I feel like its an excuse to award an actress who’s been snubbed before, but honestly I’m stunned that people think this was a best actress performance.
I agree. of the two Moore gave the better performance.
Yay! I agree… I think that Moore’s character was so much harder. She had to play someone who had no idea what she was doing or even really why she was feeling so disenfranchised from her spouse. She was guilty, selfish, goofy, lovable, and frustratingly insecure. What was Bening? Serious… Serious… Hurt… More serious. Bening’s character arc was also much more straightforward “victim” story. Color me not that impressed by Bening.
I hope Moore gets the Oscar nom she deserves. I feel that not, at least, giving her the nod for Best Actress will be the biggest snub of her career, and as one of the most underrated actresses, that is saying a lot.
Think we can scratch Hathaway off as “Love and Other Drugs” is doing poor at the box office. Keep in mind, still a few films yet to be released, never know what will happen. After all, this time last year, no one really expected Sandra Bullock to dominate the race like she did.
Sorry, meant “Love” was doing badly with the critics, only a 42 at several review roundup sites.
hathaway!!!
Not going to happen this year. It’s a middling performance in a very mediocre film.
Yeah, seems all the pre-release buzz fell apart once critics actually saw the film.
with the talk /chat chat – seeming to focus on her nudity, one can assume her perf is not so nakedly good
bening
portman
kidman
lawrence
williams
manville will go supporting. portman wins.
Kidman is a BEST BET, while Moore is a POSSIBILITY. Hawkins is a POSSIBILITY, while Berry is a LONGSHOT.
Honestly wouldn’t be upset if Diane Lane got a nod for Secretariat. I’m not sure if both Moore and Benning will get nominated though. I feel like that rarely happens in the best actress category (more often supporting.) Also Williams deserves the nod, but if they can’t get rid of the NC-17 rating, her odds are a lot lower.
Don’t underestimate her (or Blue Valentine) just yet- both Dustin Hoffman and Jon Voight were nominated for Midnight Cowboy, which won best picture.