The Screen Actors Guild nominations were the big Oscar story of the past week. How did the SAG lists affect the overall awards races? Here are my updated predictions in the six major races.
BEST PICTURE
1. The King’s Speech (last week: 1)
2. The Social Network (last week: 2)
3. Inception (last week: 3)
4. The Fighter (last week: 5)
5. True Grit (last week: 6)
6. Toy Story 3 (last week: 4)
7. Black Swan (last week: 7)
8. The Kids Are All Right (last week: 9)
9. Winter’s Bone (last week: 11)
10. The Town (last week: 8 )
11. 127 Hours (last week: 10)
12. Another Year (last week: 12)
13. Rabbit Hole (last week: 13)
14. Get Low (last week: 14)
15. The Ghost Writer (last week: 15)
BEST DIRECTOR
1. David Fincher, The Social Network (last week: 1)
2. Christopher Nolan, Inception (last week: 2)
3. Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech (last week: 3)
4. Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit (last week: 4)
5. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (last week: 5)
6. David O. Russell, The Fighter (last week: 6)
7. Ben Affleck, The Town (last week: 7)
8. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (last week: 8 )
9. Debra Granik, Winter’s Bone (last week: —)
10. Mike Leigh, Another Year (last week: 9)
BEST ACTOR
1. Colin Firth, The King’s Speech (last week: 1)
2. James Franco, 127 Hours (last week: 2)
3. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (last week: 3)
4. Jeff Bridges, True Grit (last week: 4)
5. Robert Duvall, Get Low (last week: 5)
6. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (last week: 6)
7. Javier Bardem, Biutiful (last week: 8 )
8. Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter (last week: 7)
9. Aaron Eckhart, Rabbit Hole (last week: 9)
10. Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (last week: 10)
BEST ACTRESS
1. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (last week: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Black Swan (last week: 2)
3. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone (last week: 3)
4. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (last week: 4)
5. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (last week: 5)
6. Lesley Manville, Another Year (last week: 6)
7. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (last week: 7)
8. Hilary Swank, Conviction (last week: —)
9. Halle Berry, Frankie and Alice (last week: 8 )
10. Noomi Rapace, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (last week: 9)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Christian Bale, The Fighter (last week: 1)
2. Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech (last week: 2)
3. Jeremy Renner, The Town (last week: 4)
4. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (last week: 3)
5. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (last week: 5)
6. Sam Rockwell, Conviction (last week: 6)
7. John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone (last week: 10)
8. Jim Broadbent, Another Year (last week: 7)
9. Bill Murray, Get Low (last week: 8 )
10. Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (last week: 9)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Melissa Leo, The Fighter (last week: 1)
2. Amy Adams, The Fighter (last week: 2)
3. Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech (last week: 3)
4. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (last week: 5)
5. Mila Kunis, Black Swan (last week: 6)
6. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (last week: 4)
7. Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole (last week: 7)
8. Sissy Spacek, Get Low (last week: 8 )
9. Ruth Sheen, Another Year (last week: 9)
10. Barbara Hershey, Black Swan (last week: 10)
Christian Bale all the way!
Amen and amen.
I second, third and fourth that one! long overdue!
Fifth, Sixth, and Seventh
I say NO to Bale, because those tapes released of him having a tantrum was probably for a reason.
im over the buzz for the social network at this point, it was entertaining but not something i want to root for. especially when i hear justin timberlake and best supporting actor contender in the same sentence. im still stoned from seeing black swan and i want that to win everything its nominated for especially natalie portman. annette bening was good but overall not enough but of course its super easy to give it to her over natalie though because people be crazy
i do not see any mention of JT in this article for best supporting actor so i think you’re overreacting
Wait aren’t you ‘tyuj’ the “lawyer,29 ,rich but still single” shilling some website for ho’s a few posts above?
@Bobby’s Robot: Breckster82 isn’t the troll – the trolls will pick a valid post and attach it to their own lame post which may appear above the real one to make it look like they came up with it first.
@arryana: Thanks – I didn’t know that. Sorry, Breckster82!
I totally agree! Black Swan needs to win everything it is up for such a great movie!! And honestly I didn’t care for Social Network at all!
hmmm, most people ive heard talk about black swan, hated it. i think its a bit over-rated, and not sure it has enough to win. although the academy loves to bestow awards to pretty ladies in intense, F’ed up roles. so natlie looks like a front runner for best actress.
Black Swan was the best movie I’ve seen all year. Really hoping it gets some wins.
So far, Black Swan is the best film I have seen this year, over The Social Network, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, and Toy Story 3.
I don’t think it’s overhyped at all. The hype only started to come after it was released and everyone has been flocking to the theatres to see it.
Same here I didn’t care for The Social Network and I still font get the buzz about the film. Black Swan was pretty good and Portman was pretty damn good and has the edge over Bening but I think she might lose because Bening might get the “let’s give it to her cause she’s been nominated before but never won” vote. I wouldn’t call Black Swan overrated since that honor belongs to the Social Network because many thought it would be some arthouse type film yet it’s doing well and even expanding it’s release.
Black Swan and Natalie’s performance was my favorite this year.
If Annette wins then it’s for all the 2 times Hillary beat her.
Agree with most of the rankings. One that still drives me crazy is Annette Bening over Natalie Portman. Should be no contest. I just watched “Mother and Child” tonight and even though if Bening were to be nominated, that was the better performance anyway. Just don’t get it. . .
natalie better win. girl gave the performance of her life; amazing. but of course, people said the same about mickey in the wrestler (darren’s last film) and he lost the oscar.
also, really rooting for a social network best picture win. it deserves the big one.
Seriously, Portman needs to win. Annette Benning was damn good in The Kids Are Alright but Natalie Portman was in a whole different league in Black Swan.
have you seen winter’s bone? get back to me once you have. it’s a lot harder to pull off a subtle role like Ree Dolly than an intense one like Nina. Lawrence wasn’t hiding behind tears and dance. it was just her. raw. bare bones performance. and at such a young age. incredible.
I haven’t seen Winter’s Bone but I hear her performance is great.
But Portman did more than just dance. That’s a body transformation that took a year of practice. I think the movie shows that ballet is no walk in the park.
Winter’s Bone is amazing and especially Jennifer Lawrence…but I still gotta go with Natalie on this one.
Wasn’t too big of a fan of The Kids Are All Right so I’m hoping Bening doesn’t win.
Natalie took a year of dance lessons, along with having to lose 20 pounds for the role. The girl deserves an Oscar win this year, she was just amazing!
It’s roles like this that get me PO’ed at George Lucas all over again. This is the same Natalie Portman who gave the most wooden, uncomfortable performances ever in the STAR WARS prequels! How did Lucas manage to get such awful performances out of her? HOW??
Have you READ a Star Wars script??
‘The Social Network’ keeps on winning Best Picture prizes all over the place, yet it stays at #2 on this list. And both of EW’s Top 10 lists listed ‘Network’ as their top films and said that Jesse Eisenberg gave the best performance of the year. Yet he is at #3 on here. Seems to not make much sense to me.
I agree and 127 hours not in the first 10 pictures? No way, it will be on the oscar list for sure!
agreed
Well, Dave Karger is listing what he predicts the Academy will do with the nominations, which can be different from what the EW critics think.
I think Social Network has taken the lead over King’s Speech by now. I’m starting to think King’s Speech is a platform for a best actor win.
i don’t necessarily think The King’s Speech is going to take the top prize of best picture, but I do think its going to be Colin Firth or James Franco for best actor. I love Jesse, but i don’t think he’ll win that one.
I don’t see Social Network taking all the big prizes. It’s most likely to win Director and Adapted Screenplay but Eisenburg won’t take Best Actor which will likely go to Colin Firth. I think Best Picture is still up for grabs but its between Social Network, The Kings Speech and Black Swan and The Fighter.
I haven’t seen it yet, but from the preview alone, The King’s Speech looks amaaaazing. I am rooting for it and Colin Firth. Also Black Swan and Natalie Portman.
exactly what i want to happen too!
I thought the King’s Speech was really great, but the acting was better than the film itself. Give Best Actor to Colin Firth, but Best Film to Social Network.
+1. And best actress to Natalie Portman
I think on the contrary about The Social Network. We rarely see a film so relevant and commenting on today’s media saturated culture executed so well under the direction of a director like David Fincher, a writer like Aaron Sorkin and great young actors, including Justin Timberlake who, sorry to say, is a not such a bad actor and people should just give him credit for being multi-talented rather than dismiss him as an actor. Love Armie Hammer too, wish all the supporting men would get some Oscar love.
And it’s even rarer for a film like The Social Network to be in contention for awards.
I would also like to see 127 Hours get into the top ten again. I really liked the intimate feel of the film, it almost remind me of a spiritual journey that I was just spying on. And of course, speaking of multi-talented, James Franco finally up for a Best Actor nomination!
The fact that Leonardo DiCaprio is at 10 as Best Actor just gets on my nerves. Not because he was good in that movie, no because he is in a path at this point in his career where he plays a troubled husband figure with a crazy wife and kids he feels like he needs to protect. Revolutionary Road, Shutter Island, Inception, it just needs to stop! By the way, WTF happened to Shutter Island? That film was one of the best of the year in my opinion, classic mystery feel but maybe it came out too early in the year for people to support in the long run. It’s a shame though, that movie was gorgeous to look at.
That’s really all I’m excited about, but we’ll see what happens after I see Black Swan tonight.
I don’t understand how anyone could give Annette Benning best actress over Natalie Portman. I get that Benning’s performance is much more understated, but still Portman gave the performance of a lifetime! She should be hands-down the winner imo.
exactly
I could be wrong, but maybe it’s that sense that it’s “Bening’s time”, the same way that last year it was “Jeff Bridges’ time.”
Don’t get me wrong, Bridges was really good in “Crazy Heart”, but let’s be honest…he won that Oscar more as an acknowledgement of his entire body of work (and because he’s generally beloved) than he did because it was the best performance of the year.
I’ve heard pretty much nothing but raves about Portman (I’m seeing “Black Swan” tonight), but I wouldn’t be shocked if the same thing happened for Bening this year.
Nicole Kidman is the dark horse in the best actress race. Keep your eye on her.
I think she would be the front runner in any other year! She is not really being talked about much but showing up in all major awards so far. Best Actress is so strong this year!
I don’t understand why people are praising Mila Kunis over Barbara Hershey. Mila did a great job, but Barbara was just heart-stoppingly creepy. Her performance stuck out much more to me.
You’re right about that…I thought so too
could not agree more
I agree that Mila was, ehem, very convincing and effective [lol] in that one scene, but that was really it for her in the film. She popped up here and there, but I was disappointed that she didn’t have more to do.
Annette bening has long been overlooked for several great performances. The academy has a tendency of giving the best actress oscar to a young female. So should julianne move to best supporting actress, where she will have a better chance of getting nominated?
Too late. She has been submitted for the lead category
well i think the kings speech should win the best picture,no problem with colin. and natalie should win her category
even kings speech takes the top honor ,david fincher should win best director
& best sup.actor is christian bale for his magnificent proformence
and also i think amy adams or helena bonham carter should win best sup.actress not melissa
Seriously what is your reasoning for putting “The King’s Speech” before “The Social Network?” Because it got one more golden globe nomination? The Social Network has won almost every critic award… The race hasn’t had this clear of a winner in a while.
I’d be interested to hear Karger’s reasoning myself.
If we’re just going off of the critics prizes so far, “The Social Network” has dominated, and it looks downright silly to not have it #1 at this point. (Now, if “King’s Speech” actually triumphs at the Globes or Critics Choice Awards, etc. that’s another story.)
C’mon people this is the oscars we’re talking about. Do you actually expect a young, sleek, witty, topical film to win out over a british period film?
Good point.
That’s actually the only rationale I can think of for Karger being “The King’s Speech” number one – it fits more easily in the box of what an “Oscar-winning film” is.
…for Karger having* “The King’s Speech” number one. (Man, I’m going to set an all-time record for typos today.)
The King’s Speech is the kind of film that ALWAYS wins. It’s Oscar bait. That’s why Karger has it at #1. The Academy voters are stodgy and old, I have a hard time believing they will vote for a movie about Facebook….even though its so highly favored among critics.
I felt “The King’s Speech” was extremely dule. Best films were “Black Swan” and “The Social Network”.
Critics and the AMPAS are different voting groups what one group likes might contrast with the other. Besides critics aren’t academy members so it’s unpredictable.
I’m torn between rooting for The Social Network and Inception. I personally feel that Natalie Portman deserves Best Actress. That seemed to be an extremely demanding part to play and she really rose to the occasion.