More Oscars 2012

Jan 10 2011 01:17 PM ET

OscarWatch: The Official Precursor Tally

Now all 8 of the most important pre-Oscar precursor nominees have been announced — National Board of Review, American Film Institute, Broadcast Film Critics Association, Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild, Producers Guild of America, Directors Guild of America, and Writers Guild of America. And as you’ll see from the tally below, two films, The Social Network and The Fighter, have landed on all eight lists. Here’s the final count. N.B. With the Globes, I’m only counting Best Picture, and with SAG, I’m only counting Best Cast. And I’m counting The King’s Speech among the AFI nominees since the British film received a special award from the group.

8: The Fighter (DGA, PGA, SAG, WGA, GG, BFCA, AFI, NBR)
8: The Social Network (DGA, PGA, SAG, WGA, GG, BFCA, AFI, NBR)
7: Black Swan (DGA, PGA, SAG, WGA, GG, BFCA, AFI)
7: Inception (DGA, PGA, WGA, GG, BFCA, AFI, NBR)
7: The King’s Speech (DGA, PGA, SAG, GG, BFCA, AFI, NBR) *ineligible for WGA
5: The Kids Are All Right (PGA, SAG, WGA, GG, AFI)
5: The Town (PGA, WGA, BFCA, AFI, NBR)
5: True Grit (PGA, WGA, BFCA, AFI, NBR)
4: 127 Hours (PGA, WGA, BFCA, AFI)
4: Toy Story 3 (PGA, BFCA, AFI, NBR) *ineligible for WGA and GG Best Picture
3: Winter’s Bone (BFCA, AFI, NBR) *ineligible for WGA
1: Alice in Wonderland (GG)
1: Another Year (NBR)
1: Burlesque (GG)
1: Hereafter (NBR)
1: I Love You Phillip Morris (WGA)
1: Please Give (WGA)
1: Red (GG)
1: Shutter Island (NBR)
1: The Tourist (GG)

Judging from the above, it looks to me like we now know which films would be nominated for Best Picture if there were only five slots: The Social Network, The King’s Speech, Inception, The Fighter, and Black Swan (which, incidentally, are the five DGA nominees). But the question remains: Which film among the second tier will be left out of the Academy’s top 10? True Grit and Toy Story 3 seem like they’re in. That leaves a quartet of movies – The Town, The Kids Are All Right, 127 Hours, and Winter’s Bone — battling for the final three places.

Check out our handy graphs of all the major categories to see how each race is shaping up.

Comments (44 total) Add your comment
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  • bringbackrocky

    Toy Story 3 should be in the top 5, no matter what. Still the best picture of the year.

    • Friggin Tommy Noble

      TS3 not eligible for GG best picture, but The Tourist somehow is? What did I miss?

      • Armond White

        Because toys don’t kiss you back, but Johnny Depp does. Well, he kisses back in my fantasies, at least.

    • Zack

      Where is Resident evil: afterlife? Oh yeah … the Razzie nominations haven’t been announced yet!

      • Carlisle Johnson

        Ooh, cant wait to see the Razzie nominees…

    • Colin

      No way! Did you even see anything other than Toy Story 3? I know I’ve seen many better films from 2010…The Fighter and The Social Network (in no particular order) are my favorites for Best Picture so far. However, I have yet to see 127 Hours, The King’s Speech, Black Swan, The Town and Winter’s Bone. The story just pales in comparison to many I’ve seen for 2010.

      • bringbackrocky

        Yeah, I actually have seen 14 of the movies listed in the article and yes, Toy Story 3 is still the best movie of the year.

    • jpratm

      TS3 def the best.

    • Juanita

      I liked Despicable Me more. I don’t get why everyone loved Toy Story 3 so much.

  • Strepsi

    If you’re right, and I believe you are, I hope that Winter’s Bone gets in before The Town of The Kids Are All Right, both of which were vastly overrated. But if I had to leave off one, I’d leave off Kids — I enjoyed The Town start to finish, and thought Ben Affleck did a terrific job of making Charlestown a character (like Woody Allen in Manhattan or William Friedkin in To Live and Die in LA).

    Whereas with the Kids Are All Right, I — who am gay, love this type of flick, and love all the cast as actors — went half way through, “Is this IT? How lame”. The most overrated film of the year. So yeah, you can leave off TKAA.

    • Kate

      Completely agree with the comment about Affleck and Charlestown, great directing and overall great movie hope it makes the Oscar cut.

    • JL

      Finally, somebody that agrees that The Kids Are All Right was a completely overrated piece of garbage. It was boring, pretentious and just utterly lame. How that movie gets all that hype, I’ll never understand.

      Of course, I also think Winter’s Bone was a bit overrated. I enjoyed it, don’t get me wrong, but it wasn’t movie of the year quality to me. Now, Jennifer Lawrence’s performance, that’s another story. That was absolutely awesome. The movie itself as a whole though, while enjoyable, just wasn’t all that captivating for me. Like I said, I enjoyed it, but it wasn’t movie of the year material for me. I’d actually even rank The Town above it. If for no other reason, The Town was just good ol’ fun and entertaining all the way through pretty much.

      • wino

        agree. pretentious and lame. it had the makings of a charming, great character movie…and then it went south. hate to admit, but winter’s bone bored me to death…there was nothing dynamic or interesting about the film or its performances. i felt it was a typical sundance flick, craving desperately to be an euro art house film.

    • T

      And yet another “I concur” from me. I liked “The Kids…” but didn’t love it and thought it was way over hyped. However, I LOVE,LOVE,LOVED “The Town” and really hopes it picks up some nominations come Oscar time. If this year wasn’t so loaded with sure thing director picks, Ben Affleck would for sure get a nomination and it would be well deserved.

      • JKH

        I completely agree. I was incredibly surprised by how much I liked The Town (much more than Gone Baby Gone). Affleck truly shines behind the camera.

  • Jen

    the first 10 here are anything with a 4 or above, which to me looks about right for the Best Pic category. Didn’t care for Winter’s Bone, so I won’t be sorry if it doesn’t make it. However, I am one of those who think animated films are vastly underrated and wouldn’t mind seeing How to Train Your Dragon in there–though I know it won’t happen.

  • joesmom

    Toy Story 3 was the best film I saw by far last year. Also have a fondness for Shutter Island. TKAA was overrated, and True Grit was a bore of a remake.

    • C

      I totally agree about “True Grit” it was ok but not Oscar material. It is not even in my top 5 favorite Cohen brother’s films. However “Black Swan” is my favorite film of the year. Loved it from start to finish.

      • Kris

        Black Swan was just amazing. It was so well written/acted but at the same time it was so damn fun to watch.

  • Reiley

    I’ll be shocked if The Kids Are All Right doesn’t get a best picture nomination

  • Scott

    It is beyond ridiculous to me that ‘The Tourist’ is even on a list like this….its an insult to well made movies like ‘Scott Pilgrim’

    • Buffy Freak

      You should be eqally offended that Burlesque made the cut at the Globes…what a joke!

    • Halley

      Not to mention Burlesque.

    • Lunna

      Scott Pilgrim was such an original and entertaining film, I don’t know how it hasn’t gotten more attention. It was way better than The Tourist, Burlesque and Alice in Wonderland.

      • Kathy B.

        I was pleasantly surprised by Scott Pilgrim. I really enjoyed it. Wasn’t expecting it to be so original.

    • Calebin2004

      Top 5 comedies of 2010:
      Toy Story 3
      Easy A
      Scott Pilgrim
      Kick Ass
      How to train your dragon
      In no particular order Golden Globes suck btw Kids are all Right is NOT a comedy

      • m1

        How to Train Your Dragon isn’t a comedy, either.

  • Katsat

    One could also say that Toy Story 3 was ineligible for SAG and DGA as well, if not technically, then realistically.

  • jared

    The Tourist and Burlesque FTW! haha

  • Shonna

    I hope the Town gets a best pic nom.

  • m1

    Winter’s Bone is my favorite live action film of 2010, and I really hope it gets in.

  • Woot

    Can someone explain to me why Toy Story 3 was ineligible for the Golden Globe?

    • mike

      Golden Globe rules have changed and made animated films ineligable for Best Picture, only Best Animated Film. Too bad…Toy Story 2 won GG Best Comedy/Musical years ago.

  • dirk

    Toy Story 3, How to Train Your Dragon, Sherk 4, Tangled, ect…..this was the year of the cartoon……Toy Story 3 was the best picture of the year

    • niki

      Agreed. 4 animated movies are on my top 10 (haven’t seen Black Swan yet, but it would push Inception out of that bunch in that case), so it’s been a great year for animation. Once again.

  • Mya

    The Fighter has made the cut on eight different list while True Grit hasn’t. To me that is a travesty of injustice. Congrats to The Fighter and Social Network. I know The Fighter is worthy but haven’t heard anything about The Social Network that would compel me to want to see it. Perhaps, I’ll give it a look later on down the road.

  • Claire

    The Social Network for the win!

  • bubbatwo420

    The Town is NOT better than Shutter Island so I don’t even know why that’s ahead of it at this point. 127 Hours is also hugely underrated, don’t count that out just yet.

    • T

      Well “The Kids Are Alright” isn’t better than “The Town” and it’s ahead on this list too. Just the way it is I guess.

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