How did yesterday’s Directors Guild nominations affect the overall awards race? Here are my latest predictions in the six major categories. You can also check out EW’s handy graphs of all the major awards and nominations so far.
BEST PICTURE
1. The King’s Speech (last week: 1)
2. The Social Network (last week: 2)
3. The Fighter (last week: 3)
4. Inception (last week: 5)
5. Black Swan (last week: 6)
6. True Grit (last week: 4)
7. Toy Story 3 (last week: 7)
8. The Kids Are All Right (last week: 8 )
9. The Town (last week: 9)
10. Winter’s Bone (last week: 10)
11. 127 Hours (last week: 11)
12. Another Year (last week: 12)
13. Shutter Island (last week: —)
14. Get Low (last week: 14)
15. The Ghost Writer (last week: 15) 
[falling off: Rabbit Hole]
BEST DIRECTOR
1. David Fincher, The Social Network (last week: 1)
2. Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech (last week: 2)
3. Christopher Nolan, Inception (last week: 4)
4. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (last week: 5)
5. David O. Russell, The Fighter (last week: 6)
6. Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit (last week: 3)
7. Ben Affleck, The Town (last week: 7)
8. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours (last week: 8 )
9. Debra Granik, Winter’s Bone (last week: 9)
10. Mike Leigh, Another Year (last week: 10)
BEST ACTOR
1. Colin Firth, The King’s Speech (last week: 1)
2. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (last week: 3)
3. James Franco, 127 Hours (last week: 2)
4. Jeff Bridges, True Grit (last week: 4)
5. Robert Duvall, Get Low (last week: 5)
6. Javier Bardem, Biutiful (last week: 7)
7. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine (last week: 6)
8. Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter (last week: 8 )
9. Aaron Eckhart, Rabbit Hole (last week: 9)
10. Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception (last week: 10)
BEST ACTRESS
1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan (last week: 1)
2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (last week: 2)
3. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone (last week: 3)
4. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (last week: 4)
5. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (last week: 5)
6. Lesley Manville, Another Year (last week: 6)
7. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (last week: 7)
8. Hilary Swank, Conviction (last week: 8 )
9. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right (last week: 9)
10. Halle Berry, Frankie & Alice (last week: 10)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Christian Bale, The Fighter (last week: 1)
2. Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech (last week: 2)
3. Jeremy Renner, The Town (last week: 3)
4. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network (last week: 4)
5. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (last week: 5)
6. John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone (last week: 7)
7. Sam Rockwell, Conviction (last week: 6)
8. Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (last week: 8 )
9. Matt Damon, True Grit (last week: 9)
10. Jim Broadbent, Another Year (last week: 10)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Amy Adams, The Fighter (last week: 1)
2. Melissa Leo, The Fighter (last week: 2)
3. Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech (last week: 3)
4. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (last week: 4)
5. Mila Kunis, Black Swan (last week: 5)
6. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (last week: 6)
7. Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole (last week: 7)
8. Barbara Hershey, Black Swan (last week: 8 )
9. Ruth Sheen, Another Year (last week: 9)
10. Sissy Spacek, Get Low (last week: 10)
For more Oscar updates, follow me on Twitter (@davekarger).
True Grit has lost some steam due to the DGA but its current box office didn’t counter-balance it?
I see Dave is still keeping TKS at the top despite TSN’s continued reign with awards…intersting. Will keep checking back to see if that changes.
And is Javier now awhead of Ryan due to Julia Robert’s plea? Really??
i dunno about true grit being quite the big gun kargs assumes. i’m betting on a shut out for joel and ethan as well as jeffy boy. not loving that javier’s ahead of gosling (really? can julia roberts DO that? ugh). also not sure if kidman’s going to make the cut in best actress. hate that jackie weaver may not make the supporting cut and STILL don’t understand the love for andrew garfield…at. all.
Javier over Gosling due to Roberts. is this a Joke Karger?
But do you really see them including Ryan Gosling over Robert Duvall? It could happen, but Javier seems like a powerhouse…if anyone will watch the movie. You may need a powerhouse to take down a living legend.
And they’re not going to nominate 3 boys – Franco, Eisenberg, AND Gosling. Simple politics. Gosling gets the short shrift again, but we know he will win one day a la Sean Penn.
It’s not just Julia Roberts doing all this stuff for Bardem. Sean Penn is also doing it. I think Bardem is most definitely becoming the dark horse.
My votes: Colin Firth, Natalie POrtman, Black Swan, Melissa Leo, Christian Bale. I’m seeing Social Network for the first time this weekend so we’ll see how my voting goes then.
I’m with Mike all the Best Pic buzz seems to be with TSN and Black Swan and honestly I thought they were both better than TKS. I also think Gosling should be gaining steam.
He’s repeatedly stated he’s kept TKS there because it’s an actor’s movie, and they make up the largest part of the voter base for the Oscar’s. It’s pretty clear that if critics were the voters then either Black Swan or Social Network would win, but then again, leading up to the 2006 oscars, everyone was sure that Brokeback was a sure thing, or Saving Private Ryan. The Oscars sometimes make weird decisions, and better films lose
I’m not buying the “actor’s movie” bit. It may explain in part why Avatar lost, but TSN is as acclaimed for its acting as TKS. If the best acted movie wins Best Picture then how does that explain Slumdog, Braveheart, LOTR and Last Emperor winning (and many others) when they had no acting nominations and weren’t especially hailed for their acting? I think if TKS beats TSN it will be due to subject matter and not any acting issues.
I just think TKS is much more “Oscar-bait” than TSN…because of subject matter and nothing to do w/ which is better.
Karger is the man… but time to let Get Low go as far as it being in the running for BP. Not a chance…
Agree with Diana that Firth, Portman, Leo and Bale will be the acting winners. It also still wouldn’t surprise me if Wahlberg snagged a nomination, seeing as The Fighter is really doing well with the guild nominations.
For some reason, The Social Network gives me an Up in the Air vibe — a zeitgeist-ish film that did extremely well with critics’ groups but just couldn’t close the deal. I think Sorkin will win screenplay and Fincher could win director, but I just have this feeling that something a little more conventional like The King’s Speech will win picture.
totally agree on social netwrok vibe. very up in the air meets ben button. lotsa praise but looking like an ugly bridesmaid in the end
I really like The Social Network, but Andrew Garfield doesn’t deserve all the praise, IMO of course
I am going to sound like a prissy pretentious butt clown, but Up in the Air while very good is nowhere near as dynamic or complex as The Social Network. Andrew Garfield was great as the straight guy of the movie(or as liberals would claim the hard working victim of ruthless capitalism), but no. It is Eisenberg and Rooney Mara who truly deserve the acclaim for that movie.
and Arnie Hammer.
Oh, please, the girl dumped Mark Zuckerberg, and he formed Facebook. A, it’s not that complex, and B, Rooney Mara did NOTHING SPECIAL. Up in the Air was fantastic.
I’d be ok if Wahlberg didn’t get a nomination. He was great but I didn’t get the “this is an Oscar nominated role” feeling.
Me neither, but christian bale, Melissa Leo, and amy adams did give that Oscar feeling
I hear that new Sinatra movie is good. Love, grandpa
shouldn’t I be able to avoid these annoying ads since I subscribe to the magazine???? so annoying, EW.
NICE. That’d be a good idea. Hell, you used to have to be a subscriber just to read the articles on the site. Now everyone gets pummeled with the open-up video ads and the damn subscription ads. (Silly for those of us already subscribe!)
I personally think the fighter was the best movie of the year, and i’ve seen all those nominees. David or Darren deserves best director. Natalie definitly deserves actress, and colin for actor. Bale or Rush deserves sup. actor and Melissa Leo BETTER win sup actress. If Adams does I will cry.
The Fighter wasn’t bad, but ALL of the sub-supporting characters were HORRIBLE. You didn’t think so? The sisters were caricatures, and the druggie friends were some of the worst acting I’d seen in a long time. Maybe it’s just because I’m from the area and know that that’s not how people around here are, even in 1993 Lowell.
…bitter because he won’t be nominated for True Grit.
Why does anybody in America care about royal speech impediments? Or for that matter, any of the selfish, intrinsically unlikable “people” featured in all of the live-action films on this list? Give it to Woody and Buzz.
who hurt you?
HWS95, you just made my day. sooo funny. thank you.
i hop no any thing
Robert Duvall still at #5 – really? Absolutely NO BUZZ for this film, no critics awards or nominations. How can Duvall be considered a possible nominee over Wahlberg, Gosling or even Bardem??? Time for him to drop out of the Top 5.
He got a SAG and golden globe nomination. He is a respected actor in the industry and it was a great performance.
But I do think if anybody is going to get dropped it’s him.
He didn’t get a GG nomination.
Thank you! No one is talking about Duvall, and it’s not like the film was a commercial success or anything to fall back on. Meanwhile The Fighter is racking up nominations all over the place and will get 3+ acting nominations, director, screenplay and other goodies, but Karger’s still short-changing Wahlberg. Baffling.
Look Dave, you usually solid but The Social Network needs to number one over The King’s Speech. It’s swept all the critic’s prizes so far and was a big box office hit. Not to mention the fact the days of the typical ‘Oscar Movie’ are over.
Your. Sorry.
You mean, “you’re.”
(And you also might just be right.)
you’re?
Why is Hailee Steinfeld in both Best Actress & Support for the same film?
Jacki weaver has to get a nomination! Brilliant!
She can only be nominated for one, but he has her in both because no one knows in which category she’ll land. Some have her in supporting, some in lead.
I think its determined by which they submit themselves for no? If so its in her best interest to go supporting…i don’t think anyone stands a chance next to portman
The question is why he doesn’t similarly put Lesley Manville in supporting as well as lead. She could sneak in if she gets the BAFTA nod (for supporting) and if Steinfeld or Weaver (or Kunis) get overlooked (or in Steinfeld’s case, bumped to lead).
For SAG, the studio decides where to put an actor, but for the Oscars, the actors nominating decide where they want to put an actor regardless of their campaign and precursors up to that point. Cases in point: Kate Winslet (The Reader), Keisha Castle-Hughes (Whale Rider).
I like these updates but I still feel it’s too early to figure things out until the Globes and SAGs. Remember, at this time last year, Sandra Bullock was still considered a long shot but after she won those awards, she became the front-runner so we’ll see how things shape up.
Portmann already won most of the awards already. She is going to get one from the globes also most likely the sag as well
Jesus! Is the king’s speech still in number one? No way, everybody knows that the social network will win.
The social network
Natalie portman
Jesse eisenberg( I am so sorry Colin it is not your year again)
Melissa leo
Christian bale ( at least)
Next sunday we will know all the golden globes winers, in this case anette and natalie will get their each globes, thanks God! Two categories at GG.
Eisenberg over Firth? Lolz.
I wouldn’t mind seeing that upset. I think Firth was much more deserving last year.
This remains the toughest category to call. They’re both damn good, and then you got Franco hanging there, just ready to split the vote.
as much as i love jesse, i still don’t think he has a chance against colin firth (or even james franco).
There’s no way Eisenberg wins over Colin Firth.