Image Credit: Jaimie TruebloodBee-ware the following wasp puns: The Green Hornet should sting its competition this holiday weekend and easily buzz into first place. The Seth Rogen movie has seen its release delayed three times (from June 2010 to July 2010 to December 2010 to January 2011), but who says a superhero film has to open in the summer? The $110 million project, directed by Michel Gondry (Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind), should benefit greatly from Martin Luther King Jr. Day, which most American schools take off. Its only major competition is the Vince Vaughn-Kevin James comedy The Dilemma, which will skew older. Here are my predictions for the four-day weekend:
1. The Green Hornet: $41 million
The PG-13 film’s last release date was Dec. 22, 2010, before it was delayed to January to provide additional time for an after-the-fact 3-D conversion. But Sony may wind up looking particularly smart for moving The Green Hornet away from the holiday season, where it might have been squashed by the likes of TRON: Legacy and Little Fockers. While January is an almost completely untested period for the genre — 2005′s Elektra is the only other superhero movie to be released in the month, and it opened to a weak $14.8 million over the MLK weekend — I get the feeling that the public is craving a senseless, guilty-pleasure action film. The reviews aren’t good, but add in those surcharges for 3-D and IMAX screenings, and don’t be surprised to see this Hornet cruise by $40 million.
2. The Dilemma: $22 million
Now that the film’s whole “gay” dilemma has died down, we’re left with a PG-13 comedy featuring two actors (Vaughn and James) who are big draws at the box office, a respected director (Ron Howard), and a strong supporting cast including Jennifer Connelly, Queen Latifah, Channing Tatum, and Winona Ryder. The $70 million film will attract couples looking for a date option, but the premise (should you tell your best friend about his adulterous wife?) won’t appeal to kids to the extent that The Green Hornet will.
3. True Grit: $12 million
His jinx may be occupied, but Rooster Cogburn has become something of a box-office legend, with $114 million and counting. The Green Hornet and The Dilemma likely won’t steal too much of the Western’s base, so a drop of around 35 percent seems reasonable, I reckon.
4. Black Swan: $10 million
The ballet thriller leaps from 1,584 theaters to 2,328 theaters this weekend, and with its Oscar buzz, a likely Golden Globe win on Sunday for star Natalie Portman, and last weekend’s SNL parody, the film should have enough momentum to pass Little Fockers and claim fourth place. (Black Swan has been trumping the comedy the entire workweek).
5. Little Fockers: $9 million
Little Fockers will likely take a beating due to the arrival of The Dilemma and the mildly comedic Green Hornet. A decline of 50 percent would result in a four-day tally of about $9 million, bringing the film’s cumulative tally to $136 million.
From Elektra to Catwoman, I think it is proven that a women (probably save for Angelina Jolie) cannot star in female action movie by herself. There always has to be a male co-star, or people just won’t flock to see the action movie. It is why if, Wonderwoman gets film treatment, it would most likely fail.
Wow…Ann Coulter…is that you?
Hi, are you looking for that special someone? Well join peoplewhostupidlypostspamonentertainmentsights.com. It will match you with more nutjobs who like to put this crap on here!
Uma Thurman in Kill Bill.
THIS.
Exactly. An action film with a female lead won’t fail because the lead is female (Kill Bill, Charlie’s Angels, Underworld, Resident Evil were all hits or solid performers) it will fail because it’s crap. That’s why Elektra, Catwoman, and Aeon Flux all faltered. Sadly, Hollywood is sexist, so all the hits with female leads will fail to elicit a cry of “Yeah, action heroines can be successful”, but the merest flop will make people go “Female action films can never work!” That’s BS. If Wonder Woman gets a solid team, it could potentially be the biggest action herone film ever. It already has the biggest regognizability factor of all superheroines, and it has over sixty-years of pop culture brand-name status.
People are totally underestimating Kevin James’ post-Mall Cop appeal. That, paired with Vince Vaughn slacker-dude charm and Ron Howard’s name clout will make The Dilemma come out on top. GH will be another expensive flop. Interesting that the two actors who played Mall Cops will face off at the box office this weekend, and we all know which Mall Cop beat the box office crap out of which one.
Milla Jovovich in the Resident Evil franchise. She is the only reason I watch those films.
She’s the only reason to watch any bad film she is in.
sorry…the frren hornet looks dumb….and vince vaughn is boring….although i love kevin james….looks like another “lets watch the oscar movies” weekend!
green
Well, Sigourney Weaver starred in Aliens. So there!
Yes, but Aliens also had a very large male cast. Hicks, Bishop, Hudson, Apone, Paul Reiser.
I’m finally seeing The King’s Speech on saturday before the Golden Globes on sunday. It’s the most-nominated film at the Globes this year, so how could I not see it? Then, I’ll probably see Black Swan during the week.
Two big missteps for this film:
Seth Rogen and a character most kids today have never heard of.
I probably going to see the Green Hornet. The Jay Chou fangirl in me won’t let me skip it. Plus I like dumb comedies.
Are you crazy? The dilemma is getting a horrible buzz and will fall below your expectations. Look for it to be lower like in the #4 or 5 spot.
I hate that we live in a world where Channing Tatum is listed before Winona Ryder.
Saw The Green Hornet at an advanced screening this past Wednesday…thought it was great! Humor and action rolled-up in a big summer type of movie for winter time….although, if you don’t like Seth Rogen’s type of humor then you probably won’t like this either…was expecting very little, but it completely surprised me.
I don’t think the Green Hornet will do that well. Probably decent at around $25mill but will quickly drop off. Mainly due to the lead, Seth Rogen. I would have seen this movie if it wasn’t for him and the fact that they’re trying for more humor. Please.
Are you kidding me? Seth Rogen is the man. They’re going for more of a Kick-ass approach, which was epically awesome. I never read the Green Hornet, or any comic books for that matter, so perhaps I’m more objective…
I’ll definitely see The Green Hornet because of Seth Rogen. I’ll think about the Dilemma. I like Kevin James, but it just looks a little lame.
Plannig to see Green Hornet on Sunday … but I’ll happily settle for 2-D. Less strain on the wallet.
Green Hornet was not that bad of a movie. It had comedy and action. People need to form their own opinion and stop listening to critics who go into a movie with a different agenda than most people. Most of us just want to get out and have a decent time, not pick apart a movie.
I love Seth Rogen and cannot wait to see this movie. If you look at the january and winter schedule, there is absolutely nothing of interest coming out — nothing major.