Oscars: Who will win?

Now that the dust has settled from last week’s Academy Award nominations, let’s get down to the real business: Who’s going to win these bad boys? Here are my current rankings in the 8 major categories. You’ll notice I veer off from the conventional wisdom on Best Supporting Actress. True Grit did score a very impressive 10 nominations and I’m thinking its best shots at a win are for Hailee Steinfeld and possibly cinematographer Roger Deakins. And despite Tom Hooper’s DGA win, I still feel that the Academy might choose David Fincher. (It should go without saying that my No. 1 picks are my predicted winners at this point.)

BEST PICTURE
1. The King’s Speech (last week: 1)
2. The Social Network (last week: 2)
3. The Fighter (last week: 3)
4. True Grit (last week: 6)
5. Inception (last week: 4)
6. Black Swan (last week: 5)
7. Toy Story 3 (last week: 7)
8. 127 Hours (last week: 10)
9. The Kids Are All Right (last week: 8 )
10. Winter’s Bone (last week: 11)

BEST DIRECTOR
1. David Fincher, The Social Network (last week: 1)
2. Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech (last week: 2)
3. Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit (last week: 6)
4. David O. Russell, The Fighter (last week: 5)
5. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (last week: 4)

BEST ACTOR
1. Colin Firth, The King’s Speech (last week: 1)
2. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (last week: 2)
3. James Franco, 127 Hours (last week: 3)
4. Javier Bardem, Biutiful (last week: 6)
5. Jeff Bridges, True Grit (last week: 4)

BEST ACTRESS
1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan (last week: 1)
2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (last week: 2)
3. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone (last week: 3)
4. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (last week: 6)
5. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (last week: 4)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Christian Bale, The Fighter (last week: 1)
2. Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech (last week: 2)
3. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (last week: 5)
4. John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone (last week: 6)
5. Jeremy Renner, The Town (last week: 4)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (last week: 6)
2. Melissa Leo, The Fighter (last week: 2)
3. Amy Adams, The Fighter (last week: 1)
4. Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech (last week: 3)
5. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (last week: 5)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. The King’s Speech
2. The Kids Are All Right
3. Inception
4. The Fighter
5. Another Year

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. The Social Network
2. Toy Story 3
3. True Grit
4. Winter’s Bone
5. 127 Hours

Comments (161 total) Add your comment
Page: 1 2 3 5
  • Lau

    I just don’t see Melissa Leo losing.

    • MichaelKM

      Agreed. It would be the shocker of the night if Hailee upset Leo. What I would really like to see is Chris Nolan win for Best Original Screenplay. Please Academy, give the man some love!! How long will you rob him?

      • Nathan

        He’ll get visual effects and the sound awards and that’s about it. It’s really all Inception deserves to win. Nolan will get his Oscar one day, but for a much better movie than Inception turned out to be.

      • Kurt

        As a long time Oscar watcher (and fairly good predictor), I’ve been sensing the Hallee Steinfeld rise lately, too. Her introduction through the media may be perfectly timed. And the Academy loves to welcome young actresses in this category. (Although N. Portman’s youth may nix that this year.)

    • Jethro

      I don’t think TG will win many of the awards, the Coen’s were the stars during NGFOM swept.

      Hailee is the best choice if TG has to take home an award. We haven’t seen a child star win the Oscar since it went to Anna Paquin in 1993 for “The Piano.”

      Leo was great, but the Coens are liked by the academy and Hailee’s win would be the reward for them.

      • LOL

        Too lazy to spell out “True Grit?”

      • Luis Silva

        y

    • Louis

      hailee over melissa leo, hell to the no!! Melissa leo deserves to continue her winning streak

      • AK

        Really? I find her performance to be a distracting, over-the-top mess. Anyone would be a better winner than Leo.

      • Grant

        Leo isn’t going to win, only because the votes are going to be split between her and Amy Adams. On a side note: i really do think that Leo’s performance was great but definitely not Oscar worthy. I won’t be surprised if Helena Bonham Carter actually wins. Hailee could win too but ultimately does she deserve it? Yes, the Oscars are about the better performance but I’ve got a problem with a newcomer taking it over a seasoned vet. I don’t know. Maybe I’m the only one. Still, all these actresses should be proud. They all deserve it. Leo is NOT going to win though. Which is a major blow because I’m sure she kind of expects it by now. It’s going to be a little embarrassing and a big shock to many.

      • Grant

        PS: I think it’s NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE to pit Leo and Adams against each other and have one win over the other. The two had equal parts. Both performances were amazing and neither was better than the other. Oscar voters usually get it right so I’m almost sure neither of the two will get this.

      • Tim W

        @AK Leo’s performance is so spot on it is scary. I have met Alice Ward, and Leo’s version is uncannily accurate.

      • Zach

        If it’s so difficult to have one of the Fighter actresses win over the other, then explain to me how Melissa Leo’s been winning every major award so far.

      • JC

        Melissa Leo has been winning everything in sight so I don’t see why that would suddenly change. The logic behind Adams vs. Leo doesn’t make sense since Leo has won out repeatedly.

      • Luke

        i think it is worth pointing out that at the start of the season it seemed like a 2 man race between melissa leo and jacki weaver, weaver won the nbr, and la critics and she would be well know to the australian voters considering everything written about her says she is a legend over there. people keep dismissing her yet anyone who has seen Animal kingdom raves and raves and raves about her performance

    • glenn

      I thought Hailee Steinfeld was great in True Grit, but she should be nominated for best actress and give Natalie Portman a run for her money. Melissa Leo deseves to win best supporting actress, she was awesome!

      • WTF?

        Too late for that. I think it’s pretty much a given that Portman will win, anyways. No money-running there. Things turned out the way they should, and I’d love to see Steinfeld win.

      • Meier

        I really don’t think Portman’s win is as much a sure thing as everybody seems to think. I loved ‘Black Swan’ (in fact, more than any other ’10 movie), but it’s weird and most likely loses a lot of older voters for it. And Bening in 2nd place? No way. Oscar usually prefers young up-and-comers in this category. Oscar also pretty clearly appreciated ‘Winter’s Bone’ a whole lot (Hawkes? Screenplay?). Therefore, I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if Jennifer Lawrence pulled an upset.

      • mar g

        Hailey was fantastic in True Grit!!!

      • Michael

        I agree with you, Meier. Black Swan did not get as many nominations as expected. If there were only 5 BP nominees, Black Swan (based upon total nominations) would have most likely been the one in the top 6 to get the snub.

      • Zach

        Jennifer Lawrence was awesome and the movie clearly appreciated. But they’re not going to dump Natalie for a newer, younger ingenue. TKAAR got all the nominations it could have expected, so Annette is still in this. But realistically it’s still Natalie’s to lose.

    • steve

      I think Jackie Weaver will be an upset win. She was or is fantastic as the evil sociopath grandma…up there with Bette Davis in Little Foxes who won Best Actress.

      • julie

        oh i hope so. i wish people would go see this movie and find out just how remarkable she is.

      • Jethro

        Sorry Steve, but Bette did not win best actress for the Little Foxes, she won for Jezebel and Dangerous.

      • Yer mom

        Bette Davis did not win for Best Actress for “The Little Foxes” She was a 2 time winner for “Jezebel” -1938 & “Dangerous” 1935

      • Yer mom

        sorry Jethro..did not that you already correctly replied, so my post was not needed..

      • steve

        Thanks guys, but she was nominated for Little Foxes and Bette Davis is great in it like Weaver is in Animal Kingdom.

      • Michael W Williams

        Steve,

        As someone who has seen all the nominated supporting actresses’ performances, I agree that Jacki “You’ve done some bad things, sweetie” Weaver is the standout.

        Unfortunately, about 12 people have seen ‘Animal Kingdom’ (otherwise, maybe both Michod & Mendelsohn might have been nominated) and Ms. Leo seems to have the frontrunning.

        Rightly so: A fine performance, no doubt. But it doesn’t stay with you the way Weaver’s chilling turn does.

      • Yer mom

        TCM aired The Little Foxes just the other day, and you are right, Steve,Bette was GREAT in that role..just great..the doormat wife annoyed the sh*t out of me tho’..wanted her to finally stand up to her abusive jack ass of a hubby…

    • Billie

      Me either

    • XSE Drake

      Steinfeld as your favorite to win? That is ballsy. I found her performance to be very one-note, and she certainly pales against past young winners and nominees. Her nomination is her award, and she will not be taking any votes away from Melissa Leo.

      • Laura

        agreed!

      • Zach

        Agree on everything you said! Good but one-note character. Not as lasting as ANY of the previous child winners.

    • bruno

      i’d love to SEE leo lose, but i don’t think it’ll be by steinfeld. at all. also not sure fincher’s gonna be able to keep that top director spot. if anything, i think the big surprise of the night could be bardem upsetting firth.

      • Jethro

        Remember, Robert B. won the last best actor trophy for a foreign language film, the year was 1998, could be Bardem, but he won recently for NCFOM.

    • m1

      I totally don’t see how she ISN’T a lock. She won GG, BFCA, and SAG, what more do you people want?

    • jake

      why would hailee be the winner? she did nothing special in that role — she’s no abigail breslin in little miss sunshine. In my opinion, her reward is the nomination and the academy should reward the multi talented and long overdue Amy Adams — who is equally good as Leo.

    • azfury161

      Had anyone seen Animal Kingdom, you’d see why Jacki Weaver should beat Melissa Leo. Leo was too over-wrought and over-done for me…total over-the-top Oscar bait.

  • Chris

    I still think Melissa Leo will continue her winning streak. She was phenomenal in The Fighter. Hated, sympathized, and rooted for her throughout The Fighter.

    • FromChicago

      Hallie could sneak in, if Leo and Carter Bonham split the vote.

      • Mark Johnson

        If anyone splits with Leo, it would be her co-star, Amy Adams.

      • Mike

        Yeah if anybody else (other than Leo) is going to win supporting actress it’s going to be Hallie, she probably has the best shot out of the others. I think this is the only acting catagory that doesn’t feel like a lock, don’t know why though.

        Although I do hope for a Jaki Weaver upset.

      • tiavro

        *Bonham Carter.

    • Marc

      Leo can’t continue her winning streak as she was SNUBBED by the Bafta which weakens her chances of winning

  • Hannah

    I agree that Fincher will probably still win best director, and I agree with the rest of your predictions, but I’m skeptical of Steinfeld winning. About the only thing Leo has going against her is lack of a BAFTA nomination; she’s won just about every other precursor, and she’s also a past nominee and a veteran. Seeing as she’s not a “big name” or British, I’m not putting too much stock in the BAFTA snub.
    I also tend to think that if the Academy REALLY liked Steinfeld THAT much, they wouldn’t bumped her to best actress (similar to how Kate Winslet had been in supporting most of the season for The Reader, but won the lead category). If she were competing in lead, I might think, “Wow, maybe there’s something here.”

    • Hannah

      *would’ve, not wouldn’t.

  • Erin

    Hailee at number one? Wow. Melissa Leo has cleaned up so far-that would be a major shock if she didn’t win the Oscar.

    • FromChicago

      Leo could split with Amy or Helena.

      • Hannah

        Except that she hasn’t so far this year. If she was going to split with Adams or Bonham Carter (why the latter, I don’t know), wouldn’t this split already be going on with the other awards?

  • Mike

    Nicole Kidman last in the Best Actress race? I don’t think so – I’d say she’s a solid 2nd or 3rd..

    • PJ

      Not many people have seen Rabbit Hole, which is a shame, because she is GREAT in it, as is the rest of the cast.

      • Liz

        It really is a shame because she is spectacular in it. I think she’s a good counter to Natalie’s performance. Wish more people were able to see it.

      • Tuvak

        I agree. I think she would be a front runner in almost any other year.
        Great film and brilliant performance. So glad she got the nomination. Disappointed Dave has put her at No 5.

    • rob

      Nah! Her face didn’t even move in those crying scenes! Botox wrecked her chances.

      • ML

        I actually agree with that. It was very distracting to look at her forehead not moving during the emotional scenes.

  • Buffy Freak

    I think the thing going against Leo is all these wins and all the press she’s been doing. Frankly, IMO, she comes off as kind of wacky and a bit full of herself in these acceptance speeches and interviews…it’s kind of off-putting.

    • Jethro

      Great point, her SAG win proved that the political stuff is frowned up, look at the boos Vanessa R got when she won, does the academy want to associate it self with that stuff, definitely not. Can you imagine how sweet Hailee’s acceptance speech could be when she takes the honor?

  • Rik

    Wouldn’t be surprised if Aronofsky got a surprising best director win, but prob makes sense that Fincher gets director and loses in best picture race to King’s Speech. The main shocker category is best supporting actress. It seems to be Leo vs. Steinfeld but would not be surprised at all if Adams won.

  • nt

    im not sure if steinfeld really wins. but she certainly has a few advanteges. a lot of screentime, 10 noms for true grit, and vote-split between adams and leo. adams is nominated the third time in 5 years, she clearly has fans in the academy.

    best director for fincher seems fair, but i dont know if voters really want a best picture/best director-split. if they vote for the kings speech as best picture, many of them will also vote fpr tom hooper, because tks didnt direct itself. and winning the dga is a really really strong sign.

    • KarlHall

      Which is why I say, Goodness someone GIVE this girl Amy Adams an Oscar already!!

      • the_girl

        HELLO!! ITA.

      • Sara

        Agreed! She is my absolute favorite actress. But Melissa Leo was equally great in the Fighter.

  • Entertainment2u-Twitter

    I agree with all except SUPP ACTRESS. Leo will win. Not only for this, but for recognition of her great work in FROZEN RIVER a couple years back. The TRUE GRIT girl will more opps in future.

    NO real suspense this year. The four acting cats have been consistently won by the same four people in all awards shows.

    Best pic could be the only surprise. If SOCIAL NETWORK reclaims top choice over KINGS SPEECH. but probably wont.

    ho hum!

    • zeezee

      I agree with your predict’s except for the Supp Actress – I think it will be Melissa Leo, and Best Pic…I think you have Social Network too high, move it down to #7…Kings Speech, True Grit, Black Swan, Inception…way better than Network this year.

    • Jethro

      The supporting categories are always a shocker. In 2007, the locks were definitely Hudson, Whitaker and Mirren, but who would have thought it would have been Arkin.

      • RT

        A big strike against Leo is her age. The Academy prefers ingenues in this category. Over the past 20 years only 5 winners in the Best Supporting Actress category were over 40 when they won, boding well for Adams or Steinfeld.

      • sam

        i think dave thinks this will be a shocker because anna paquin won surprisingly for the piano. but this is really the most suspenseless oscars and the four will definitely win oscars but personally I would trade Bening/kidman for Portman who is so overrated in the role and Amy adams for supporting. Mark Ruffalo for supporting but he doesn’t have a chance.

    • Alice

      I agree — you can’t evaluate Leo’s chances without keeping Frozen River in mind; she was nominated for Best Actress to acknowledge her performance even though she had no shot at the win. The Academy might see this as an opportunity to reward her recent “body of work.”

  • fromMarkHall

    I got Sue Sylvester’s predictions a day earlier at interactmeadia.com

  • Mike

    I know everyone is saying Christian Bale is a lock… BUT is there any chance he could get upset by Geoffrey Rush? I mean King’s Speech is absolutely rolling right now, and I personally wouldn’t be too shocked if it happened.

    • KarlHall

      Not possible… Bale is long overdue for an Oscar. His performance in The Fighter was one of his most balanced, in terms of artistic and commerical achievement. Not fully commercial like TDK, but not excessively artistic like The Machinist.

    • Sue

      There’s like a 1% chance that Geoffrey Rush will beat Christian. I’m sorry, but that VERY LAST SCENE, where Bale cries, is just EPIC. I think that scene alone was about 30seconds long and for that scene alone he deserves the Oscar. Bale is going to win and if he doesn’t then the person who does better NOT stand up. It’d be a real insult to the prestige and history of OSCAR. period.

    • Joyce

      I hope someone overthrows that VERY large head. He actually had the nerve to say he ‘acts’ for his self and the public could go to H34l

      • Anonymous

        If you read about Bale – he is actually very insecure about his talent. He doesn’t “hate” the public – he dislikes talking about himself because he prefers that his acting does the talking. He doesn’t want to influence the way his characters are seen. he wants the public to see his characters for what they are.

  • Chris

    I actually agree that Steinfeld wins. Best Supporting Actress is the award where the winner comes out of left field. Leo could lose votes to Adams, and people may vote for Steinfeld because they feel she should have been nominated for Best Actress. This whole setup screams Anna Paquin 2.0

    • WTF?

      Word.

    • Rachael

      I couldn’t agree with you more Chris. This whole award season this category seemed like a dead lock for Leo. But a lock for a win is only an illusion in the Supporting Actress race. This is the category that the Academy always likes to defy expectations and is where the most random winners can be found in Oscar history: Juliette Binoche, Judi Dench, Marcia Gay Harden, Tilda Swinton, and Anna Paquin. I just have a feeling that Leo will not take this one. Helena Bonham Carter is also not out of the range of possibilities as well.

  • Jennifer

    Wasn’t there some buzz that Christopher Nolan might win best screenplay “in exchange” for the Best Director nom snub?

    Of course I anticipate a strong King’s Speech sweep, but maybe this prize will squeak by.

    • Christine

      Yikes… “in exchange”? I think he totally deserves Best Original Screenplay. Plus a directing nomination, even if he didn’t win.

  • Damon

    There has to be a shock of the night..Also, I see it in the Best Supporting actress race..I can see Hailee pulling an upset. Everything else seems locked..As long as Natalie wins the best actress Oscar, I’ll be content.

    • Tin

      As long as Firth and Bale get their recognition, I won’t care for anything else.

      • Joyce

        Bales due would be the unemployment line!!! He HATES the public….so I hate him.

      • Japanese HIROSHI

        Joyce,

        Just a random question: Where did you read that Bale hates the public?

      • Bren

        Bale is very open about his dislike for interviews. He also dislikes doing all the marketing stuff involved with making movies. He doesn’t like to discuss his performances either. All of those things he articulated very clearly in a recent Esquire article. I never got the impression that he hated the public from that piece, just that he didn’t want to play the game. I think that’s kind of smart in a way, if you are serious about being seen as an artist. When you watch the actors that are always in the magazines like Brad Pitt, Angelina Jolie, etc. it’s hard to forget that you are watching them and just focus on the role they are playing without thinking about the person playing it. In fact, by saying you don’t want to see a movie with Bale because of something you think he said as a person, kind of proves his point.

    • Mike

      Well said, Damon re: Portman. Her winning is all I need to see.

  • Khoff

    Remember Boys Don’t Cry? Something I remember in interviews with the director was that she said that many women could have played Swank’s role in the talent area, but no one LOOKED right. The Coen’s said they couldn’t find an actress gifted enough to do the role until Steinfeld came along. That puts her neck and neck with Leo. I’m very interested to see who wins. (p.s. Bale is number one with a bullet.)

    • sam

      i’ve never been so bored with an oscar race in my life. the same people will win.

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