Image Credit: John BramleyIf George Washington and Abraham Lincoln were still around today, surely they’d spend Presidents’ Day weekend at the movies. They’d even split a 1,000-calorie large popcorn, I imagine. This holiday weekend sees three new releases join a healthy pack of holdovers. Teens and young adults have I Am Number Four, DreamWorks’ alien-meets-Twilight-via-Michael Bay extravaganza. Adults will be able to watch the world’s most badass Irishman, Liam Neeson, in the stolen-identity thriller Unknown. And Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son will count on fans of the prior two Big Momma movies to turn out. Add in last weekend’s strong releases, like Just Go With It and Gnomeo & Juliet, and you have one crowded multiplex. Here’s how I think the four-day weekend will play out:
1. I Am Number Four: $29 million
The first DreamWorks project to be released by Disney (through its Touchstone Pictures label), this PG-13 sci-fi adventure stars young British actor Alex Pettyfer as a teenage alien who, naturally, has inherited some pretty cool powers. Relocating to Earth after his home planet was destroyed, Pettyfer falls in love with a local girl (Glee‘s Dianna Agron) while trying to evade the evil Mogadorians (more aliens). Equal parts action film (Michael Bay is a producer) and teen romance, I Am Number Four should have no trouble drawing a young crowd of both genders, and will benefit from playing on 228 IMAX screens. Last Presidents’ Day weekend, the similarly themed Percy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lightning Thief opened to $38.7 million. But Number Four will more likely fall in the Presidents’ Day range of Jumper, which debuted to $32.1 million in 2008.
2. Unknown: $22.5 million
After I Am Number Four, it becomes extremely challenging to predict how the rest of the top five will finish. I think Unknown has the best shot at second place, as the PG-13 thriller is being marketed as a close relative of 2009′s Taken, which opened with $24.7 million and went on to collect $145 million. Unknown, which cost only $31 million to produce, is tracking well with older moviegoers, but that audience segment doesn’t necessarily rush to the theater. Still, I think there’s enough interest out there that the film will wind up with a four-day gross in the low-20s.
3. Gnomeo & Juliet: $22 million
This G-rated animated musical surpassed everyone’s expectations last weekend by earning $25.4 million. With no new family movies entering the fray, the Disney flick, which scored a “B+” rating from CinemaScore moviegoers, should hold up well this holiday weekend.
4. Just Go With It: $21.5 million
The Adam Sandler-Jennifer Aniston romantic comedy has been topping the box office throughout the workweek and garnered an “A-” CinemaScore, so there’s a chance the PG-13 movie won’t suffer the typical Sandler drop of 50 percent. Still, if I had to choose between the comic and a Shakespearean garden gnome this weekend, I’m placing my chips with the latter.
5. Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son: $21 million
Who knows? The first Big Momma’s House registered $25.7 million its debut weekend in 2000 en route to $117.6 million. The sequel, Big Momma’s House 2, opened to an even larger $27.7 million in 2006, but quickly plummeted after that to finish its run with just $70.2 million. This looks like a franchise with diminishing returns, and Martin Lawrence hasn’t starred in a hit since 2007′s Wild Hogs. Regardless, I wouldn’t be surprised if this PG-13 threequel somehow landed in second place this weekend.
I was an early screening for I am number four, but i had to leave after the first 20 minutes. but from what i’ve seen so far it is AWESOME! my friend (who stayed for the entire show) and i are def going to watch this weekend!
@Jasmine; why would you leave the movie it it was great? I plan to go see this movie Friday, but I am reading some bad reviews on this movie. The commercials look good and as a 44 year old man, I love Sci Fi, Supernatural, and Vampire/Werewolf movies. I don’t think this movie will just attract teenagers. A lot of mature folks will go check out this movie. I don’t want to see Unknow because it looks boring with an over the hill Irish Actor still trying to be an action hero.
Big Mama was cute the first time, but now it has gotten to be a stupid and unbelievable movie. You can look at the character Big Mama and tell she’s not a woman. Martin Lawrence need to give it a rest.
Maybe he had to go to work or some other engagement? What are you talking about re Unknown… Have you not seen Taken, another flick by Liam Neeson? It was by far one of the best action/suspense movies I’ve seen in a decade, I have zero doubt Unknown will be another insanely good movie.
Really? I’m somewhere inbetween age-wise, and I can def say that the promos for IM#4 don’t have me excited at all. It’s Starman with Aryan teens. Oh, aliens are here and they’ve disguised themselves as the most common ethnicity on the planet. Wait let’s add flashlights in his hands. Because nothing says AWESOME like a blondie with glowing hands! You know what would make this better? Let’s add two pretty blondes. Make sure they’re skinny because aliens love ‘em skinny.
Is anyone else turned off by the obvious age difference between the married couple in “Unknown?” I think it is almost insulting, Neeson should know better.
I agree with REASON. Liam is about 25 years older than January Jones. I’m sure they could of cast an actress in her mid 40′s at least. But this has always been the case in Hollywood. When Clark Gable and Gary Cooper were in their 50′s they would be cast with women in their 20′s. Same old stuff.
we have come a long way though: say what you want about “Just Go With It,” but at least Aniston and Sandler are around the same age, Aniston is usually paired with men her age, even when she was younger. Imagine if she was cast in “Unknown,” there would still be a 15 year age difference, something to think about.
Yeah, it’ll be pretty mediocre….at best. Pretty much sci-fi for the Twilight/Glee crowd.
I am number 4 was an amazing movie. Everyone should go see it. i loved it
I saw an early screening of I Am Number Four as well and though it was horrible, awful, worst thing I’ve seen in awhile, etc.
The acting was atrocious, especially from that Glee girl.
@Jackson; are you serious? I am now having second thoughts about going to see this movie Jackson.
It was pretty terrible. I just read your response to jasmine and based on sci-fi stuff, this movie is not it. It’s a watered down version of Twilight, except with vampires and worse acting, if you can imagine that. Save your money.
*except with ALIENS
@Jackson; thanks for the info. I guess, I will not be going to see this movie tomorrow. I might just check out the movie unknown. I was given a $50.00 movie gift card for Christmas. Thank goodness, I don’t have to spend my money. LOL
I thought it was good for two reasons: the main actor is very good looking, and the special effects are amazing. I recommend seeing it.
It’s Twilight and Harry Potter with aliens instead of vamps and warlocks. Every soccer mom in the USA is going to adapt everything we like and make a tween-friendly novel of it. Twelve year olds will read it because they’re not allowed outside anymore. Then Hollywood will opt it for a movie further using up that dwindling of resources: white 18-ish boys. We’ve sent most to Iraq so now we’re importing them from the UK. Hooray for Hollywood. Crap for the rest of us.
Hey Charles – do you know Jackson personally and well enough to trust his opinion, or do you just base your moviegoing on what one random person on the Internet thinks about it? I’m sure you could find just as many people who do like this, or any other movie, feel free to make up your own mind.
Have you seen Stormbreaker? The older Alex gets, the uglier he becomes.
Charles, Jackson could be a troll who hasn’t even seen #4. His insult of “that Glee girl” kind of gives him away.
Ummm. It’s nothing like Potter. I’ll give you the twilight reference though, because the romance aspect of it is “gag-worthy.” I can’t believe two males co-wrote that book. The story is actually quite interesting, but from what I’ve seen in the trailers, I don’t know if they’ve translated it well to screen.
@Reason; you make a good point. I will go see the 1:30 p.m. showing of I Am Number Four today.
@Reason,
Considering I Am Number 4 is currently at 32% on rottentomatoes, Jackson is probably right.
As far as we know you could also work for the studio.
I went to see this movie today and I enjoyed it. It’s a lot of action and Nelson was wrong.
I’m not shocked. The book is horrid also. Terrible writing and the whole aliens on Earth thing is a total rip off of Roswell High.
The book was okay, but for some reason I have no interest in seeing the movie.
ummm no it was one of the best movies ive seen in a long time. u must be on crack
I live in apt. # 4.
LOL@illegal alien
Wow, another terrible weekend ahead at the movies. And a prediction for a $21 million opening for Big Momma’s House 3? That’s way too much. I guess the dumbing-down of America continues. I feel bad for people that will go and see that. To see that movie is to hand over your dignity. I don’t even think the those that paid to see Grown-Ups and Little Fockers will see this. If America still thinks that an unfunny comedian dressed in a fat suit is still funny, then their taste in movies is the same as a twelve-year-old. It’s a good thing there are still Oscar-worthy films still playing, like The Fighter, True Grit, Black Swan and The King’s Speech. Those are the films people should be seeing. Not Big Momma’s House 3 and Just Go With It. Hollywood writers need to learn how to write sophisticated comedies, not movies loaded with toilet humor.
@Dominic, we live in a free society and it’s call having a choice. Although the movies you mention, I prefer not to see them. I like action movies, Sci Fi, Horror, and Comedies. I am not too keen on Dramas like True Grit, Black Swan, The Fighter, or the King’s Speech. I don’t like depressing movies about the old south, slavery, and Jim Crow.
Slavery and Jim Crow laws aren’t even in True Grit.
Or in Black Swan, The Fighter, or The King’s Speech…
True Grit is about the old West.
True Grit is about a girl trying to defend her father’s death. I interpreted it more as a dark comedy than a drama.
Black Swan is about a ballet dancer with issues.
I haven’t seen The Figther.
The King’s Speech is about a King with a speech impediment who also has to give speeches and this causes him great embarrassment, so he seeks help for it.
Dominic, please understand that not everyone is interested in seeing films like that. I personally haven’t seen anything worthwile this month since 127 Hours and Blue Valentine came to my theater (mediocre, best film of 2010), but I’m not complaining.
Plus, do some theaters still have those films? The Fighter left my theater a month ago, True Grit 2 weeks ago, 127 Hours last week, and after today, Blue Valentine, Black Swan, and The King’s Speech will be gone from my local theaters.
While people may not want to see a small, indie film, there is no reason to see Big Mommas House.
@Dominic While I do want to see those four films, it is not because they’re “Oscar-worthy”. The trailers have my attention- not some nominations. Except 127 Hours… a guy trapped under a rock is not a story. But neither is Martin Lawrence rehashing 90s fare for the chronic.
I think the worst thing of I am a number 4 is indeed the number 4 guy, i could watch the movie just for the glee girl cause i think she is sweet.
Wait! You don’t wanna see the Aryan-Uberman in a movie? What is wrong with you? Please note that if aliens did come to this planet they’re not going to take form of the most populace ethnicities, like Indians or Far-Asians or Africans. These people are not special enough. PLUS they are not as attractive. There has to be a really good sci-fi script laying on a coke-addled coffee table with a better story than what IM#4 brought to the big screen. Seriously.
Does everything have to be about racial prejudice? Get over yourself!
@Angel; what are you talking about? LOL
Timothy Olyphant character in this film get’s killed. Timothy Olyphant is a great actor and I’ve watched him in most films. I love him on TNT Justified. We are the same age.
Timothy Olyphant would have made an excellent Superman at the age of 44. The guy works out, in shape, and he’s attractive.
I Am Number Four will be number 1 at the box office this weekend. The movie was full of action and it didn’t put me to sleep.
I saw the previews of “Thor”. I don’t know if this will be a good movie.
I can’t believe that Just Go With It got an A-. It was more like a C! Aniston was surprisingly good, but that was all.
Same dumbos who lined up for ‘Fockers’ in December.
Aniston fans are the only ones who saw it, so of course they’re going to give an A. It’s got a whopping 19% on Rotten Tomatoes.
I actually think Unknown could be number one this weekend.
Me, too. I haven’t even heard of “I Am Number Four.”
Agreed. I don’t think I Am Number Four is getting the buzz or interest it needs to do that well, and its getting some godawful reviews. I don’t think Unknown is going to repeat what Taken did, but I think people underestimate Neeson’s draw.
I am number four looks good but I think unknown will be # 1
yea i also saw an advance screening of ‘i am number four’…it wasn’t good. alot of cliche stuff, bad acting (alex p.) and so cheesy. save your money people. i am looking forward to ‘unknown’ which seems more promising.
It’s a propaganda poster for the Third Reich. They must be loving this at the biker clubs across the nation. Gawds! Somewhere there has to be a good script waiting to be the next District 9! (I don’t mean a sequel, Jackson!)
Don’t bring the germans into this. They had enough attenion drawn to the in WW1 and ww2.
Why does Michael Bay have a job?! Is the Spielberg legacy to no longer make movies that jumpstart our imaginations? His final works are to make Bay the top guy. Where’s Third Encounter and ET. IM#4 isn’t even as good as Duel. Special FX and a tall Brit is the plan now. We’re just bringing in teens. How about a sci-fi movie that brings in EVERYBODY?!
I wonder how many people in Mississippi will go see “I Am Number Four” because they think it’s a biopic about their hometown hero Brett Favre? Or how many people in Wisconsin will avoid it for that same reason.
I say if it’s good enough to be advertised on every freakin’ bus in the greater SF/Oakland metro area, then it’s good enough for Jennifer Aniston and all the other rich, white supremists hailing taxis with Just Go For It ads on the roof. Choose your poison, prisoners of democracy, ’cause I got a plane to catch to Barbados.
The marketing push for “I Am Number Four” has been aggressive, but every year a movie about a bland lead with special abilities is released. “Jumper”, “Push”, and now “I Am Number Four”. It could very well lead the box office this weekend, but this weekend is VERY unpredictable. “Unknown” is being underestimated. Especially with urban audiences who now love Liam ever since he single-handedly killed everyone on screen in “Taken”. “Unknown” is also currently the best reviewed new release on RottenTomatoes. This race may be a lot closer.
I saw “The King’s Speech” last weekend and I was pleasantly surprised. That was one of the best films I have seen in a very long time. Colin Firth was amazing and he definitly deserves to win the Best Actor Academy Award. I thought that the movie was going to be stuffy and boring and drown in its art direction and costumes (anyone remember “The Age of Innocence” and Merchant Ivory productions like “Howard’s End”?)”The King’s Speech was very engaging and the plot and characters were very well developed. The relationship between Colin Firth’s King George and Geoffrey Rush’s doctor was very moving. I don’t think that Geoffrey Rush will win the Supporting Actor Oscar (Christian Bale seems like a lock at this point) but Rush did a fantastic job at bringing humor into this movie. There are also some very moving scenes involving Colin Firth. If anyone is sick to death of the movies out right now go see this movie. You will not be disappointed. I hope it wins Best Picture also.
Yeah. I was also very surprised. I put it off, because I expected it to be a “talker” like most period films are, but it actually moved really fast and held my attention the whole time. Plus, I loved seeing all these brilliant actors pop up out of nowhere: Timonthy Spall as Churchill, Michael Gambon as King George (?). I had no idea they were in the movie, because all attention has been on the lead actors. That film was amazing.
Don’t underestimate Liam Neeson’s box office draw. “Taken” did good and had legs.