Each day leading up to tonight’s 83rd Academy Awards, we’ve shared Dave Karger’s Oscar picks in a major category, as well as his prediction of how the votes will break down (based on previous awards won and conversations with insiders and Academy members). Today, we present his pick for the Best Picture Oscar. Click here to look back at his predictions for Best Director, Actor/Actress, and Supporting Actor/Actress.
Image Credit: Laurie Sparham
The King’s Speech
The good news: This year’s Best Picture race doesn’t have a dud in the bunch. From Sundance hits like The Kids Are All Right and Winter’s Bone to director-driven pieces like Black Swan, True Grit, and 127 Hours to blockbusters like Toy Story 3 and Inception, it’s a satisfying potpourri of different genres, budgets, and themes. But there are really only three films with any chance of winning. As one of the two films with the most acting nominations this year (plus the all-important directing and editing citations), The Fighter qualifies as the scrappy underdog choice. And after virtually sweeping the critics’ prizes and earning eight overall nods, The Social Network was far and away the early favorite. That is, until the announcement of the guild awards, whose voting bodies overlap considerably with the Academy. The King’s Speech scored the rare hat trick of guild prizes (Directors Guild, Producers Guild, and Screen Actors Guild), an achievement matched by only six other films. In five of those cases, the movie went on to take the Best Picture Oscar as well. Only Apollo 13 faltered with the Academy, but that film didn’t have a Best Director nomination to its credit. So even in the later rounds of the Academy’s preferential balloting process, expect The King’s Speech, which boasts the most nominations of any film this year, to have the last word.
Vote percentage prediction:
The King’s Speech: 23 percent
The Social Network: 20 percent
The Fighter: 12 percent
Inception: 10 percent
True Grit: 10 percent
Toy Story 3: 7 percent
127 Hours: 5 percent
Black Swan: 5 percent
Winter’s Bone: 5 percent
The Kids Are All Right: 3 percent
More Oscars:
Dave Karger’s Oscar pick for Best Director
Dave Karger’s Oscar picks for Best Actor/Actress
Dave Karger’s Oscar picks for Best Supporting Actress/Actor
Oscars: Who’ll win (and who should!)
I’m very disappointed that everyone is saying that The King’s Speech will win. Shouldn’t it be too close to call? 23 to 20 percent is pretty damn close if you ask me, so I’m still not ruling out The Social Network. It gets my vote. I saw both The King’s Speech and The Social Network, and I believe that The Social Network truly deserves the award. I think it has everything that it needs to be a perfect film. It had the right dose of everything (comedy, drama, backstabbing) and I don’t think The King’s Speech did it as well as The Social Network.
Since when does a movie have to have “backstabbing” in order to be the Best Picture? The King’s Speech had one thing The Social Network didn’t have – emotion.
It doesn’t need it, but its definitely a good addition, as it plays well in the film. Also, how does ‘The Social Network’ not have emotion? Even though its didnt wrench people’s hearts by crying-it wasn’t supposed to. It was telling a different story and it let the consumer make the decision on who was right.
I don’t know what you were watching paul but social network had emotion
I am not saying the kings speech doesn’t deserve to win I am just saying social network deserves it just as much. Now if I were to choose I’d choose 127 hours that was the best film I saw in 2010 (and yes, I saw all oscar noms)
I am 100% with t.t on this one, including 127 Hours being my pick.
I agree that The Social Network had NO emotion! I just didn’t care what happened to anyone in it! The Kings Speech had EVERYTHING; fascinating story, fantastic performances and an emotional connection.
I agree with PJ – the only thing I came away from The Social Network thinking was: Geez, that was a cold movie. The King’s Speech had me riveted and thinking about it days later. The Social Network was actually pretty forgettable for me.
Then again, so was Slumdog Millionaire, so what do I know?
It wasn’t a cold movie, and the last 10 minutes only exampled at how far Mark had come. Okay, maybe your right, but still.Riveting.
I really hope ‘The King’s Speech’ wins. I saw it for the second time on Friday, and I enjoyed it even more than the first time (which I didn’t think was possible). I laughed, cried, and felt my heart clench at the same moments. Such a gorgeous film in every aspect.
I think Inception was the actual best movie of the year (fantastically fresh concept (yes, movies have been made about dreams before, but not how Inception uses them) deftly executed with a phenomenally tight script, a director who should have won and great acting) and I want The Social Network to win it (zeitgeisty movies never win, and the script, acting and directing are all award-worthy), I think King’s Speech will come away with it (very pretty, fantastic acting and emotionally resonant, but not much there otherwise)
I think Inception was the best movie. I know it won’t win, and I probably seem stupid, but it deserves, by far, the Oscar for best Special Effects (or what ever it is called). Social Network was good, but not as good as Kings Speech.
I’m stubborn, so I still think The Social Network will get the Oscar.
1. 127 Hours\ It was between this and TSN for me and i decided to vote for the under(slum)dog.
2.The Social Network\Great in every way.
3. The Fighter\A bit cliched`perhaps, but the performances were incredible, especially Christan Bale who was unforgettable.
4. The King’s Speech\Great acting, great directing, great story, couldn’t help but think i was watching an HBO (very)miniseries.
5.Inception\was undoubtedly genius, was also somewhat boring at times.
6. Toy Story 3\a great film that doesn’t deserve to win best picture.
7. The Kid’s are all right\a good film that deserved to be nominated but Litte Miss Sunshine did it better.
8. True Grit\First time i saw True Grit i liked it, but it’s kind of faded on me. Still, great remake.
9. It was well acted and Okay, but that’s about it.
10?. Black Swan\ didn’t see this in time.
Whoops Winter’s bone is number 9.
Must agree with Maddi and Ziggy above: “Inception” was the most all-enveloping movie experience for me this year. But although “Social Network” was my least favorite of the nominees, I saw all 10 and also have to agree w/ the reviewer that there wasn’t really a dud in the bunch.
The Fighter was good because of Mark Wahlberg who was overlooked. Bale and Leo were awful in “actory” cliched roles. The King’s SApeech edges out The Social Network as Best Film.
Social Network had about as much soul as a calculus equation.
I saw it as a cautionary tale…the loss of soul for the sake of lucre, ego and power.
I liked The King’s Speech, Inception, Black Swan, 127 Hours, The Fighter, Toy Story 3 and True Grit, so I’ll be happy if any of those movies win Best Picture. I haven’t seen any of the others, so I can’t say.
I personally think it should go to ‘Toy Story 3′, maybe because it was the one i was most excited about before and after watching it, but still its a brilliant film!
Saw ‘em all except for 127, Winter’s, and Kids. All very good, but the standout, IMHO, was the King’s Speech. Walked away feeling uplifted, like I’d seen something significant, so much so that the time and $$ spent weren’t lamented as is often the case after seeing a movie that’s been critically praised, wishing instead that I’d waited to see it on pay-per-view or for the release of the blu-ray.
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