Image Credit: Paramount PicturesWith 2011′s box office trailing last year’s by 25 percent, Hollywood is turning yet again to Johnny Depp to save the day. Exactly one year ago, Depp’s Alice in Wonderland debuted to a fantastical $116.1 million. This year, the chameleon-like actor plays, well, a chameleon in the animated Western Rango. While the PG-rated toon won’t come close to being the box-office juggernaut that Alice was, it should hopefully put a little spring into 2011′s step as we wait for what’s expected to be a massive summer. Joining Rango this weekend are three other new wide releases: the sci-fi romantic thriller (how often are those three genres combined?) The Adjustment Bureau, the fantasy romance Beastly, and the retro comedy Take Me Home Tonight, the last of which was shot way back in 2007. Tonight, starring Topher Grace and Anna Faris, is playing at 2,003 locations and will be lucky to gross more than $6 million this weekend. Here are my predictions for the top five:
1. Rango: $44 million
It’s been a month now since Gnomeo & Juliet opened, so there’s likely a huge appetite out there for a movie to take the little ones to. Plus, the $135 million Paramount release may attract quite a large number of childless adults thanks to Depp’s overall appeal and the flick’s favorable reviews. Dr. Seuss’ Horton Hears a Who and How to Train Your Dragon, two recent animated films that were both released in March, debuted to $45 million and $43.7 million, respectively. And while Rango will miss out on the latter’s 3-D price hike, I think it’ll nevertheless gallop away with around the same amount. However, don’t be too surprised if the movie winds up taking a shot at $50 million.
2. The Adjustment Bureau: $19 million
Delayed from last July, The Adjustment Bureau, which is based on a short story by Philip K. Dick, intriguingly mixes a sci-fi scenario with romantic and thriller elements. Despite average reviews, the PG-13 film should provide a solid opening for Matt Damon, and that’s a relief after the disappointing performances of Hereafter, Green Zone, Invictus, and The Informant! Discerning moviegoers will be enticed by the prospect of an intelligent thriller, while couples looking for a date movie may be intrigued by the romantic pairing of Damon and Emily Blunt. And the cinephile in me wants to give the film a whirl simply to soak in the cinematography by John Toll (The Thin Red Line) and the score by Thomas Newman (Road to Perdition).
3. Gnomeo & Juliet: $8.2 million
Finally some competition for the Shakespearean lawn ornaments. Disney’s animated twist on Romeo and Juliet has displayed incredible stamina so far, but it hasn’t had to deal with the likes of Johnny Depp until now. Rango should steal a considerable chunk of Gnomeo‘s family audience. However, since Rango‘s PG rating may deter parents with very young children, Gnomeo will likely remain an attractive alternative. Furthermore, we’re talking about a movie that’s so far seen weekend drops of only 25 and 30 percent. So figure a 40-percent slide this week.
4. The King’s Speech: $8.1 million
After winning four Oscars (including Best Picture) on Sunday, this British historical drama rose to fourth place on Monday, and then to third place on Tuesday and Wednesday. It’s difficult to predict exactly how much of a post-Oscar spike it’ll receive this weekend, but a bump of around 10 percent seems reasonable.
5. Beastly: $8 million
Like The Adjustment Bureau, this modern-day reinterpretation of the fairytale Beauty and the Beast was originally scheduled to be released last July. Reviews have been underwhelming, and stars Vanessa Hudgens and Alex Pettyfer (I Am Number Four) aren’t exactly the biggest of box-office draws. But distributor CBS Films has been aggressively targeting girls from 11 to 17 years old, and that demographic’s passion for this kind of teenage-girl-loves-cursed-guy material should be enough to give the $17 million film a decent debut from 1,952 theaters.
I wouldn’t be surprised if your predictions this week weren’t spot on, John. Rango might even reach $50 million factoring in the Saturday and Sunday matinees.
Rango looks like a steaming pile of crap.
Not even steaming….old and cold.
Which means it will be a huge hit because America loves crap.
Why crap? It’s been getting good reviews from critics (84% at rottentomatoes)… Let’s give it a chance before we call it crap!
You’re an idiot.
I can’t wait to see Rango. I have been looking forward to it since I first heard about it.
I’m just glad that we’re finally out of the dreadful February. Not one good movie came out last month. This month, I’m looking forward to The Adjustment Bureau and Battle: Los Angeles. I’m a little apprehensive about Red Riding Hood because it’s from the director of Twilight. But if it gets good reviews, I might give it a shot.
I may have been the only one who thought this but…The Roommate was good.
Rango!
As much as I’m intrigued by the adjustment bureau, can we just call it what it really is, a remake of the movie Dark City!!!!
i personally thought….bourne was running through the streets with his chick again…..i mean emily blunt (i do love her though)
kill me if you want…..but i am looking forward to a good old fashion….horror/comedy/slashing…hopefully scream 4 brings it….if not….o’well….was fun waiting for it
So glad we’re done with January and February. It truly was a dumping ground this year. The Adjustment Bureau certainly looks intriguing, I may end up seeing it this weekend. Rango looks cool too. Beastly looks terrible.
*Box Office not “Big-Office”
I won’t see Rango because the character look ugly.
I won’t marry Lisa because she write ugly.
As Long As Rango’s Sheriff “We Got Hope.”
I think Lisa’s onto something, actually. The characters in Rango are less visually appealing than what you might see in a typical animated movie, and that will likely hurt its box-office tally. Take, for example, A Bug’s Life and Antz: the latter had better reviews and bigger stars than the former, but made less money. Why? Among the various reasons must surely be that the Antz characters were uglier than the ones from A Bug’s Life. And before anyone brings up Shrek, that character is cute-ugly, not plain ol’ ugly. Face it: if Rango and his pals were better looking, the movie would make more money.
somebodies a ho
My 6 year old doesn’t want to see it for this very reason. I think the animation looks incredible, but he said the animals all look weird except for the snake. Oh well, still going to see it with my 9 year old.
Actually I think it looks great! And my daughter (3) loves seeing the previews and laughs every time. The characters are different and interesting instead of the same-old boring animation we see in every movie. I bet it does great!
the Adjustment Bureau is a NY Times Critics Choice, not exactly an average review.
Test..are they censoring PKD’s last name? Won’t let me put that one in. If it’s PKD related, I’d go see The Adjustment Bureau. Until seeing this article, I had no idea it was connected. I’m going for sure now.
Yes…they are. Philip K. D ick won’t work when putting it all together.
Yeah you also can’t type the last name of the fashion designer Vera
W(a)ng even though her full name was used in the headline and article.
Wow, they censored my post when I spelled out my last name with Hyphens between the letters. Shows how awful my name must be.
I am so looking forward to Rango. I saw a trailer or something showing how it got filmed and was so excited. All of the actors were on a huge sound stage actually acting out the movie to make the dialogue much more realistic than all actors in separate sound booths with bad intonation and even worse mixing.
And I think the Chameleon is cool looking.
I don’t understand why kids would like Rango. It was so boring! younghollywoodguide.com
younghollywoodguide.blogspot.com
I don’t think that everything in February was a dumping ground. “Gnomeo and Juliet” has held up quite well (it does look appealing) and “Knowing” did quite well and solidified Liam Neeson’s status as an action star. Not as great as “Taken” but still enjoyable. The other movies in February look horrible. “Hall Pass” looks very unfunny.
You mean “Unknown” not “Knowing”.
Well I already posted on ropeofsilicone.com but I will say invictis was a nice hit for damon and everyone else on there, and it broke even if I remember correctly (boxofficemojo.com) according to that site in the states, then the informent only cost 25 million to make so it was another hit. Hereafter has made money with overseas combined. So the only miss was Green Zone, which even with worldwide totals only eaked out 100 million or so. All they had to do was sell 2-3 million DVD’s and blue rays and that movie would be fine as well, plus there other avenues of making money studios have for a movie. So anyways Damon’s new movie im sure will just be another hit for him, since he has only had one true miss in the last few years! Dont’ forget True Grit.