Mar 11 2011 12:56 AM ET

Box office preview: Aliens to crush werewolves as 'Battle: Los Angeles' clashes with 'Red Riding Hood'

They’re gonna need a bigger multiplex. The recent onslaught of new releases continues as Hollywood unveils three movies this weekend, on top of the four films that debuted last week. Two of the new entries, Battle: Los Angeles and Mars Needs Moms, feature nefarious extraterrestrials, while the third, Red Riding Hood, will provide teenage girls their regular dose of sizzling guys who may or may not be werewolves. The three films also target distinct demographics: men of all ages for Battle: Los Angeles, teenage girls and young women for Red Riding Hood, and kids for Mars Needs Moms. The only audience segment being neglected here is, well, adult moviegoers looking for pictures that actually earned favorable reviews. But those individuals should check out Rango (seriously), or The Adjustment Bureau, or the still-in-theaters and Oscar-winning The King’s Speech. Here are my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Battle: Los Angeles: $31 million

It was a sunny 76 degrees in L.A. today, so naturally the city has to be destroyed. While reviews for Sony’s $70 million alien-invasion film have been abysmal, the movie’s marketing has been slick — particularly those trailers set to that wonderfully eerie song by Icelandic musician Jóhann Jóhannsson. The PG-13 film’s ensemble isn’t particularly star-studded (Aaron Eckhart is the most recognizable cast member), but that shouldn’t keep a significant amount of (predominantly male) moviegoers from getting their disaster-action-film fix. Battle: Los Angeles won’t quite match the opening of, say, 2009′s District 9 ($37.4 million), but it should have no trouble declaring victory this weekend.

2. Rango: $22 million

The PG animated film, starring Johnny Depp as a pet chameleon that’s stranded in the Nevada desert, debuted to $38.1 million last weekend. Animated films, particularly ones as favorably reviewed as Rango, tend to hold up well. But Rango also received a troubling “C+” rating from CinemaScore graders, perhaps due to parents discovering that the Western is a bit darker (and its language a bit saltier) than anticipated. But if Rango loses favor with the parents who have young children, hopefully it’ll also gain support from those adults who’ll appreciate an animated film that’s willing to reference everything from Sergio Leone’s Spaghetti Westerns to Apocalypse Now‘s “Ride of the Valkyries” helicopter attack to the basic storyline of Chinatown. Look for a drop that’s a bit more than 40 percent.

3. Red Riding Hood: $20 million

Catherine Hardwicke’s first feature since directing 2008′s Twilight should attract a sizable chunk of that movie’s fanbase. This Hot Topic revision of the classic fairy tale has received even harsher reviews than Battle: Los Angeles, but once again, that won’t matter for the PG-13 film’s core audience of young women. Red Riding Hood stars up-and-coming actress Amanda Seyfried, two good-looking guys in Shiloh Fernandez and Max (son of Jeremy) Irons, and, like, a werewolf too. How can this thing not gross $20 million?

4. The Adjustment Bureau: $12 million

As one of the few films in theaters that’s intended for an older (and more discerning) audience, this Matt Damon thriller shouldn’t be affected too much by this week’s new competition. A decline of 40-45 percent seems reasonable.

5. Mars Needs Moms: $11.5 million

This is going to hurt. Disney’s 3-D animated adventure cost a reported $150 million to produce, and it could open to less than $10 million this weekend. I’m predicting a slightly better result than that; after all, those 3-D surcharges should help some, and the film’s playing on 211 IMAX screens. But reviews for the Robert Zemeckis-produced movie have been mediocre, its title is unwieldy, and the far livelier Rango came out just a week ago.

In limited release, the Charlotte Brontë adaptation Jane Eyre, which stars Alice in Wonderland‘s Mia Wasikowska, opens in four theaters. And Certified Copy, for which Juliette Binoche won Best Actress at last year’s Cannes Film Festival, debuts at five locations.

Comments (30 total) Add your comment
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  • shma

    IF RED RIDING HOOD ACTUALLY GETS 20 MIL I WILL EAT MY HAT

    • Rodd

      Why? Got anything against the target demographic as opposed to the connoisseurs of fine art who will be going to see the Battle Los Angeles?!

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        ———-I may catch Rango sometime soon, but I wish Source Code, Hanna, and Water for Elephants would get here already! Those films look so much better than the new releases.

    • Joe

      There’s no way in hell RANGO will be # 2 this weekend. With all the admittedly bad but crowd-pleasing options opening, Rango will barely scrape the top five. It will most likely be
      1-BATTLE LA
      2-RED RIDING HOOD
      3-MARS NEEDS MOMS
      4-RANGO
      5-THE ADJUSTMENT BUREAU

      • Jose

        Don’t know about “Mars Needs Moms”, 3D prices could scare away some families.

      • Jason

        I think EW has a good point with Rango being at the top. At first people weren’t sure about it, but now that everyone loves it and it’s a weekend, families and even adults will see it.

      • Jose

        “now that everyone loves it”

        Were you not here last week when the film got a C average from cinemascore and most of the people were commenting on how bad the film was?

      • Dave

        Joe, don’t ever get a job as a box office prognosticator.

  • B-

    Well I would argue that Michelle Rodriguez is just as well known as Aaron Eckhart. She’s been in more mainstream hits including “Avatar”.

    • rough Jeans

      Female + Lesbian + puerto rican= not a box office draw.

      • Joe

        Tell that to Jennifer Lopez and her box office hits, Maid In Manhattan, Anaconda, Selena, The Wedding Planner, and Monster-In-Law.

      • Rich

        Excuse me? Did you see “Avatar”? Her so-called female-lesbian-puerto rican character didn’t seem to hurt that film’s box office one bit…

  • amy

    Don’t discount “MMM.”
    A 3-D Disney ‘toon is catnip for certain segments of the moviegoing public. And it’s certain to please parents and wee bairns more than “Rango.”
    Sigh.

    • Animation Mom

      Agree, MNM will perform better that most predict. Simply fun entertainment for the whole family.

  • m1

    I may catch Rango sometime soon, but I wish Source Code, Hanna, and Water for Elephants would get here already! Those films look so much better than the new releases.

  • Ryan Ann

    I think that “The Adjustment Bureau” could surprise people. I’m seeing it on Monday and everyone I’ve talked to says it is an excellent movie. It could steal away the number one spot.

  • ST

    I honestly don’t think Red Riding Hood is going to do that well. I realize that it’s marketed to the same audience as Twilight but we’ve had Beastly and I am Number 4 go after that same audience in the past month. Though they’ve done okay, they haven’t done Twilight numbers and I think Red Riding Hood hasn’t been marketed that well at all. In fact, I think it will tank and Mars Needs Moms will perform better, simply b/c it’s a kid flick.

  • Jenz

    With spring break starting this weekend for me, the only film I’ll probably catch is The Adjustment Bureau. I’ll wait to catch Battle on DVD if I need disaster fix. I wish it was next weekend. Limitless, The Lincoln Lawyer and Paul all look worth catching.

  • ryan

    What is the deal with disney and all these mediocre movies? I know gnomes turned out to be good, but it was a big risk, and now this movie?

    • Jason

      Nothing wrong with taking risks every once in a while.

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  • David

    nothing worth watching this weekend then!

  • S.O.

    Talk about bad timing for Battle: LA to come out when a real natural disaster just happened in the world almost 12 Hrs ago.

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  • timbo1718

    I would think Michelle Rodriguez is the most recognizable star in the Battle:L.A….she has been in way bigger hits than Aaron….Fast and the Furious Franchise, Resident Evil, S.W.A.T., Blue Crush, Machete, oh and the biggest movie of all time Avatar…she is well known for this type of movie.

  • P7

    Yeah, I’m not sure about Eckhart being the most recognizable. Michelle Rodriguez has been in a slew of blockbusters and Bridget Moynahan isn’t exactly an unknown either. I say, bring on Scream 4 already!

  • m.

    I wouldn’t describe Amanda Seyfried exactly as up-and-coming actress, she has been in several big budget movies and has done this “acting thing” more than ten years.

  • Rich

    I agree with most of your article except this line–”The only audience segment being neglected here is, well, adult moviegoers looking for pictures that actually earned favorable reviews.” Just because a film like Battle:LA chooses to show the war in a Science Fiction/Action-oriented context does not necessarily make it ‘juvenile’ or any less adult. Statements like yours are one reason why such films cannot shake the stigma. For example, “District 9″ was a film that actually took itself more seriously than audiences expected, despite the political satire of the film, and it earn very good reviews. Just my humble opinion…

  • barney

    RRH missed the mark, FAIL

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