Image Credit: Robert Zuckerman
Featuring more explosions per minute than a Fourth of July fireworks display, Transformers: Dark of the Moon will dominate the box office this holiday weekend. And while there’s no doubting the Michael Bay extravaganza will post some enormous numbers, will the action film also be able to re-energize moviegoers’ enthusiasm for 3-D? Scavenging for Transformers‘ leftovers will be the romantic comedy Larry Crowne, starring Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts, and the Where-in-the-World-is-Selena-Gomez comedy Monte Carlo. Here are my predictions for the four-day (Friday-to-Monday) weekend:
1. Transformers: Dark of the Moon: $99 million
The $195 million, 157-minute, gazillion-decibel spectacle has already scored the year’s largest opening day by grossing $37.7 million on Wednesday. That’s an impressive figure, yes, but it also represents a hefty 39-percent drop from 2009′s Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, which brought in $62 million its first day. Clearly moviegoers are feeling a bit hesitant about spending another two-and-a-half hours with these alien robots. As a result, Dark of the Moon is performing closer to 2007′s Transformers, which collected $27.9 million its opening day.
The PG-13 action film is playing on 3-D screens at nearly 2,800 locations (including 146 IMAX theaters) — the largest 3-D release ever. The last four major 3-D movies — Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, Kung Fu Panda 2, Green Lantern, and Cars 2 — all made less than half of their opening grosses from 3-D showings. Moon will attempt to reverse that trend. Paramount has been heavily pushing the film’s 3-D format, and even went to the trouble of sending 2,000 theaters an extra-bright print to counter criticism that 3-D movies are too dim. On its opening day, 3-D showings accounted for a solid 60 percent of Moon‘s revenue. If the film is able to maintain that percentage throughout the weekend, it’ll prove that audiences will still flock to 3-D screenings if they feel the movie truly warrants that extra dimension.
Moon has received mediocre reviews, but CinemaScore audiences handed it an overall “A” grade, which is a notable improvement over Revenge‘s “B+” rating. Revenge made $214.9 million its first six days, while the original Transformers took in $155.4 million during that amount of time. By Monday night, I think Moon will have earned roughly $165 million in six days.
2. Cars 2: $39 million
Except for its larger opening day, Cars 2 has so far virtually duplicated the day-to-day performance of the first Cars movie. In 2006, Cars grossed $33.7 million its second weekend — a 44-percent drop. Figure the sequel will take in around the same amount from Friday to Sunday, plus an additional $5 million or so on Monday.
3. Bad Teacher: $19 million
The Cameron Diaz comedy debuted to a surprising $31.6 million last weekend, but also garnered a tepid “C+” mark from CinemaScore audiences. It shouldn’t plummet as much as The Hangover Part II (64 percent), but a decline of 50 percent seems probable.
4. Larry Crowne: $15 million
With unflattering reviews, this PG-13 dramedy starring Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts will have to depend on the fanbase these two Academy Award-winning actors have gathered over the years. Hanks, who also co-wrote and directed the picture, has done his part promoting Larry Crowne on seemingly every talk show in existence. In the film, he plays a man who enrolls in a community college after losing his job, and Roberts is one of his professors. The $30 million film should attract older audiences and those who could care less about destruction-addicted robots.
5. Green Lantern: $9.5 million
The $200 million superhero movie fell 66 percent last weekend — the third-worst drop this year. With Transformers likely eating up a significant portion of its remaining audience, expect another big slide this weekend.
6. Monte Carlo: $9 million
The PG-rated comedy stars Selena Gomez as a young woman who is mistaken for a British heiress while vacationing in Paris. As a result, Gomez and her stepsister (Leighton Meester) and best friend (Katie Cassidy) find themselves indulging in the extravagances of Monaco. I’ve not seen a single commercial for this $20 million movie, but then again, I’m not exactly its target audience: tween and teenage girls. Reviews have been ho-hum, but there’s not much else out there for young girls. So, sure, why not, $9 million, I think?
Wait… Revenge of the Fallen got a B+ from cinemascore??? and Dark of the Moon got an A? What? Please tell me this is a violent, horrible nightmare.
I gave both films an A+.
They can have my endorsement.
And my axe!
And my bow!
And my sword!
Again, it’s no Fast Five, but still solid entertainment. It could have used a lead like Vin Diesel or The Rock instead of a dishrag like Shia LePew, but the action makes up for it. It’s not on the level of a film like Fast Five, but still fun.
And my boobies!
And my line!
that LOL is a complete idiot with zero credibility. The new Transformer movie is a totally incoherent mess. Go ahead and see it if you don’t believe me, or save your money. I just got back from seeing it in 3D IMAX and need a drink.
Well, we can thank Justin Verlander for derailing one distinction that would have made this weekend’s latest renewal of the Subway Series extra compelling:
Had Mike Pelfrey figured out a way to nurse that early 1-0 lead, if he hadn’t blown past 400 pitches by the third inning, and if the Mets had managed to squeeze a sweep out of their trip to Detroit, both the Mets and the Yankees would’ve brought matching five-game winning streaks to Citi Field this weekend.
Fact: The hottest these teams have ever been, together, heading into a Subway Series is . . . well, not very hot at all. In the 15 years they’ve been playing this series, both teams have brought winning streaks into the showdown only three times: 1998, 2000 (when each were on brief two-game bursts), and earlier this year, when the Yankees had won three in a row and the Mets two straight.
My endorsement as well!
I remember when Revenge of the Fallen came out people really liked it. It wasn’t until late in the year when the “worst of the year” lists came out that suddenly this belief came out that everyone supposedly hated it, despite it being the top grossing film of the year.
I have no idea what you were reading when Revenge of the Fallen came out, but almost every critic cried out “worst film in a LONG time.” It wasn’t a consensus that came out at the end of the year, rather during the time RotF came out.
Yeah, you must not have been paying attention. It was panned mercilessly by critics, even the fanboys at AICN didn’t like it. What you’re remembering is you and your little circle of friends liking it. Me, I thought the first one was weak, and when I heard the almost unanimous critical drubbing, including from geek sites, the second one got, I decided to pass on it completely.
I honestly have no clue what you’re talking about. From my stand point, everyone hated it immediately. Although, your post makes sense as backlash grows with time.
Rich since 1998 b!tches!
Of course the Cinemascore makes sense – these are people who loved the first two movies enough to rush out and see it on opening day, and since this is just more of the same, it makes total sense that they’d like it. Were you expecting them to somehow instantly develop better taste in movies? Now, if they had tricked people thinking they were seeing Tree of Life into seeing T3 and they gave it an A, that would be a different story.
‘ebibiz”
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t s h i r t s -12
s h o e s -35
b i k i n i -17
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And my boobs!
Nobody cares what critics say. Both movies were Fun! Who cares if the lighting and shadows were not up to par with Gone with the wind. This will be fun too!
Part 2 was not fun, it was torture. And offensive. Not because of racism, but because of how f*cking stupid it was.
Yep, I am the true inspiration for those Transformers movies… You’re welcome
I don’t think anyone will disagree with you
Transformers 3 received an “A” grade from CinemaScore audiences? That’s sad that a movie with meaningless explosions and a lackluster story gets such a high grade. I would feel embarassed to sit in a theater of people that are so easily impressed by explosions, loud noises, juvenile humor and bad comic relief. I’m glad I’m skipping this one. Unfortunately, people don’t realize that a movie can be entertaining, while also having quality. Hollywood seems to cater to morons and simpletons today, so this is the type of movie (if you could call it that) we get in return.
American audience are retarded. True story.
Not being American & only seeing they 1st 2 movies due to free tickets i completely agree.
Being American and having see the first one…I sadly agree.
Not being American but having lived there for over a decade, I think Americans just go to the cinema because they have nothing better to do. Suburban America is a dead place; you can’t even let your kids run around in the yard without neighbors calling in to report the noise. Transformers 3, bad as it is, is still better than watching paint dry.
Then how come all these ‘dumb’ movie do so well or better overseas, where according to some, people are ‘better’???
In fact, they don’t do that well overseas.
I don’t have the statistics for the Transformers films, but lets consider another big budget sci-fi tentpole picture that I do have numbers for: Tron 2.
In the UK, Tron 2 only made 3 million USD during it’s opening weekend, compared to 50 million USD in the States. Of course, the US has 5 times the population of the UK, so we need to adjust the figures to create a balanced comparison. To do so, we simply multiply the UK box office by a factor 5, giving us a projected UK box office of 15 million USD. That means Tron 2, adjusted for population, did only about 1/3rd (or 30%) of the US business in the UK.
I will not deny you this: Transformers and other SFX-driven American movies make a lot of money in Japan and China. Its still only a fraction of the American take though.
If you haven’t seen it and don’t plan on seeing it, Shut the F#@% up and move on.
Sad that opening day was equal to super 8′s entire opening weekend…then again it also had a quarter of the budget
Please say NO to crap.
It’s nearly 3 hours which affects the number of times it can play. It has awesome action, effects, 3D but crap everything else. so a Bay film.
I went to see the movie thought it was great I took my 5year old son heck i wanted to see the movie since I went to chicago when they were making the movie I wanted too see the finished movie.. I hope they make another movie it would great for the transformers fans who love it…..
Perhaps a better use of your father-son time would be to have your son teach you how to use punctuation.
Why would anyone trust the opinion of someone who fails to demonstrate 2nd grade English?
^ troll
Honestly, with fan-bait movies like Transformers, I don’t put much stock into CinemaScore ratings. At this point, the people most likely to go back for a third helping are ones who’ll love it regardless, and they’re also the ones driving the A grading.
It’s doing OK for 2011 standards, which isn’t saying much. It looks like it’s going to REALLY underperform on the second one, maybe by as much as 25% overall.
I say good riddance.
It’s such a shame. I would love to see a genuinely good Transformers film. I want to believe in massive robots with artificial intelligence. I want to feel the same sense of awe and scale that I experienced the first time I saw a dinosaurs come to life in Jurassic Park, or space travel in 2001. The Transformers films are a missed opportunity.
I wish I could hope for the end of the franchise…but I’m afraid I can’t do so just yet.
I loved it!! It was awesome cause it had quit a few of the same characters from the 1st Transformers ( except Megan Fox ) it would of been awesome if she was still there too but all together it was great!!!
I saw Transformers: Dark of the Moon, at the midnight premiere on Tuesday night. I thought that this movie was entertaining and filled with action, suspense, and alot of fun. I know it’s long, but with all of the events that take place in the story, the time flies by. I’m a 13 year old boy and I loved all of the Transformers movies! I actually loved Rosie Huntington-Whiteley as the female lead and I thought she did a pretty good job. I would recommend that you see this movie if you like action-filled movies, but not in 3-D. It had a really good story and I would definitely see this movie again!
What are you doing up so late?
Does you mommy or daddy work for Paramount?
Of course you liked it. You said it yourself. You’re a 13 year old boy. I would’ve loved this at the same age. At 13, you have no knowledge of what really makes a good movie good. I grew up to have taste, so their’s hope for you yet. Check back with us in fifteen years. You’ll probably wonder what in the hell you ever liked about these movies.
i watched the movie yesterday and the movie is AWESOME and it is the best in the series….and I was to surprised to hear the voice of Sentinel Prime because it was the Great Leonard Nimoy and it suited Perfectly.
Get off the soapbox. I enjoyed the first one, went to see part 2 on opening day, and totally hated it. Was utter rubbish. But, Im still willing to see part 3 this weekend, and in 3D no less. I know there are people who hate commercial mindless entertainment, but event movies can be fun. Im not a Harry Potter fan, (just not appealing to me), but I aint gonna trash the fans who love that series. We’re all free to watch what we want. Same goes for the Twilight fans. I can sit through one of those movies without gouging my eyes out, sure, but I will wait for the DVD release instead of Breaking Dawn. But there are those of us who DO wanna see DARK OF THE MOON in the cinema, and surprise surprise, we like top class intellectual entertainment as well, like Inception, The Social Network, The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right. Those are some of my fave movies in the past 15 months.
And ps. I also enjoyed Battle Los Angeles
agree 100% with you!
This comment is valid proof that EW should put a “like” button on this site.
For a movie people have no plans too see your sure are reading everything about..Movie was Long but it was good, had a solid story that tied all three movies together. Great Summer Movie..
It was good. Stop looking up reviews online like losers and go see the film. F*ck rottentomatoes. loL.
…because we should all spend our money carelessly?