Oscar predictions: After Directors Guild

Yesterday’s Directors Guild Awards nominations managed to shake up the Oscar race by including David Fincher for The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo over The Tree of Life‘s Terrence Malick and War Horse‘s Steven Spielberg. After being overlooked by the Writers Guild and Directors Guild, War Horse now falls below The HelpHugoMidnight in Paris, and The Descendants in my rankings. I still think enough crafts-branch members may give it sufficient votes for a Best Picture nomination. The Tree of Life, meanwhile, was completely shut out by all four major guild awards. While it is possible to earn a Best Picture nod without a single major-guild nomination (Letters From Iwo Jima pulled it off, for instance), it’s quite rare. With only three days left until nomination ballots are due, here’s where things stand in the six major races.

BEST PICTURE
1. The Artist (last week: 1)
2. The Descendants (last week: 3)
3. The Help (last week: 4)
4. Hugo (last week: 5)
5. Midnight in Paris (last week: 6)
6. War Horse (last week: 2)
7. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (last week: 10)
8. Moneyball (last week: 7)
9. The Tree of Life (last week: 8 )
10. Bridesmaids (last week: 9) 
11. The Ides of March (last week: 11)
12. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (last week: 12)
13. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (last week: 13)
14. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 2 (last week: 11)
15. My Week With Marilyn (last week: — )

Falling off: Drive

BEST DIRECTOR
1. Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist (last week: 1)
2. Martin Scorsese, Hugo (last week: 3)
3. Alexander Payne, The Descendants (last week: 4)
4. Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris (last week: 6)
5. David Fincher, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (last week: 7)
6. Steven Spielberg, War Horse (last week: 2)
7. Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life (last week: 5)
8. Tate Taylor, The Help (last week: 8 )
9. George Clooney, The Ides of March (last week: 9)
10. Stephen Daldry, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (last week: 10)
11. Bennett Miller, Moneyball (last week: 11)
12. Nicolas Winding Refn, Drive (last week: 12)

BEST ACTOR
1. George Clooney, The Descendants (last week: 1)
2. Brad Pitt, Moneyball (last week: 2)
3. Jean Dujardin, The Artist (last week: 3)
4. Michael Fassbender, Shame (last week: 4)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar (last week: 5)
6. Michael Shannon, Take Shelter (last week: 6)
7. Demián Bichir, A Better Life (last week: 7)
8. Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (last week: 8 )
9. Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March (last week: 9)
10. Woody Harrelson, Rampart (last week: 10)
11. Ryan Gosling, Drive (last week: 11)
12. Daniel Craig, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (last week: — )

Falling off: Matt Damon, We Bought a Zoo (last week: 12)

BEST ACTRESS
1. Viola Davis, The Help (last week: 1)
2. Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady (last week: 2)
3. Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn (last week: 3)
4. Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs (last week: 4)
5. Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin (last week: 5)
6. Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (last week: 7)
7. Charlize Theron, Young Adult (last week: 6)
8. Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids (last week: 9)
9. Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene (last week: 8 )
10. Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method (last week: 10)
11. Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia (last week: 11)
12. Felicity Jones, Like Crazy (last week: 12)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Christopher Plummer, Beginners (last week: 1)
2. Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn (last week: 2)
3. Albert Brooks, Drive (last week: 3)
4. Jonah Hill, Moneyball (last week: 4)
5. Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (last week: 6)
6. Nick Nolte, Warrior (last week: 5)
7. Ben Kingsley, Hugo (last week: 8)
8. Armie Hammer, J. Edgar (last week: 7)
9. Patton Oswalt, Young Adult (last week: 9)
10. Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method (last week: 10)
11. Andy Serkis, Rise of the Planet of the Apes (last week: 11)
12. George Clooney, The Ides of March (last week: 12)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Octavia Spencer, The Help (last week: 1)
2. Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids (last week: 2)
3. Bérénice Bejo, The Artist (last week: 3)
4. Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs (last week: 4)
5. Jessica Chastain, The Help (last week: 5)
6. Shailene Woodley, The Descendants (last week: 6)
7. Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus (last week: 7)
8. Carey Mulligan, Shame (last week: 8 )
9. Sandra Bullock, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (last week: 9)
10. Judy Greer, The Descendants (last week: 10)
11. Jessica Chastain, The Tree of Life (last week: 11)
12. Kate Winslet, Carnage (last week: 12)

Dave on Twitter: @davekarger

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