Oscar predictions: Golden Globes certainties, surprises and snubs

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emma-hyde-park_610Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture — Comedy Or Musical
Jack Black, Bernie
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson
Ewan McGregor, Salmon Fishing in the Yemen

Certainties: Silver Linings Playbook‘s Bradley Cooper and Les Miserables‘ Hugh Jackman were foregone conclusions. Both will likely score lead actor Oscar nominations.

Surprises: Bill Murray, the world’s most interesting human, hasn’t gotten a lot of love for his turn as President Franklin Delano Roosevelt in Hyde Park on the Hudson, but with lots of musical/comedy nods to give out and most awards-worthy lead actor performances in serious dramas, I’d have preferred to see McGregor get a supporting actor nod for the father trying to save his children from a tsunami in The Impossible. Jack Black isn’t such a surprise — just a well-earned honor for an energetic actor who takes a real risk in Bernie, the true-life story of a Bible-thumping good-guy who commits a savage crime of desperation.

Snubs: Not many. There weren’t a lot of break-out comedy performances for lead actors this year, and the field is fairly well-represented here.

NEXT PAGE — Winners, losers, shocks: Supporting Actress

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