Oscar predictions: Golden Globes certainties, surprises and snubs

salmon-fishing-in-the-yemen

Image Credit: Laurie Sparham

How much did this morning’s Golden Globe nominations shake up the Oscar race?

Eh … Let’s just say that the primary beneficiary will be DVDs of a little Ewan McGregor comedy called Salmon Fishing in the Yemen, which very modestly came and went from theaters early last spring. That movie picked up three nominations in the best musical/comedy categories of picture, lead actor for McGregor, and lead actress for Emily Blunt.

Also, what the …? Nicole Kidman gets another supporting actress nomination for the critically lambasted The Paperboy after yesterday’s nod from the Screen Actors Guild? Okay then.

I wouldn’t say that Kidman and Salmon Fishing now have shots at the Oscars, but these mentions by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association — which has no crossover with the voting body of the Academy Awards, by the way — are fairly strong “for your consideration” recommendations. The quirk of having a separate category for drama means that the occasional offbeat comedy choice like Salmon gets some time in the Globes spotlight. (I’m not sure how to explain the Kidman thing, though.)

The other nods were what you might expect: Lincoln led the contenders with seven nominations: best drama, dramatic actor for Daniel Day-Lewis,  director for Steven Spielberg, a screenplay nomination for Tony Kushner, a music nomination for John Williams, and supporting mentions for Tommy Lee Jones and Sally Field.

Quentin Tarantino’s Django Unchained and Ben Affleck’s Argo were tied for runner-up with five nominations each, including best drama.

The influence of the HFPA, a group of about 90 journalists who report for international outlets, is always a little dubious, but because the event is telecast on NBC in the heart of award season it is considered a critical campaign primary for those seeking to win an Oscar.

But this year the Globes telecast takes place on Jan. 13 — three days after the nominations announcement for the Oscars. The HFPA had tried to shift its awards ceremony ahead a few days, before the previous cut-off for Oscar nominations voting, in an obvious bid to claim some influence over who got an Academy Award nod and who didn’t.

But the Academy responded by leapfrogging them again with the current timeline. One could argue the Globes still play an important role in the overall awards conversation, but this jockeying of dates with the Academy has undoubtedly taken a little shine off the HFPA’s trophy.

On the next few pages, let’s look category by category at today’s surprises and snubs.

NEXT PAGE — Winners, losers, shocks: Best Drama


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