Golden Globes: Sure-things, shocks, and shutdowns -- ANALYSIS

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Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
Kate Winslet, Labor Day

CERTAINTIES: The first four a regarded as the safest Oscar bets: Blanchett (favored to win), Bullock, Dench, and Thompson. This simply reinforces that conventional wisdom.

SURPRISES: Kate Winslet as a mentally fragile mother who shelters an escaped prisoner over one tense, long-weekend in Labor Day. The movie hasn’t had a strong push for awards consideration, and Winslet — who just gave birth — hasn’t been present on the campaign trail. This might vault her, and the film, back into consideration for those voters who haven’t caught it yet.

SNUBS: Adele Exarchopoulos of Blue is the Warmest Color and Brie Larson of Short Term 12 — both acclaimed in smaller, more intimate dramas that could’ve used the love.

PRIZE FIGHTER SCORE: 5 out of 5. The first four were easy. I was hoping Winslet’s moving work would grab them, and it did.


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