Golden Globes: Sure-things, shocks, and shutdowns -- ANALYSIS

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ACTOR – COMEDY/MUSICAL

Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
Joaquin Phoenix, Her

CERTAINTIES: Bruce Dern. He’s the only one out of this group you can lay money on. He’ll be in the Oscar race for his career comeback performance as a wispy-haired old codger who goes on a road trip into his far-off past.

SURPRISES: I wouldn’t call any of the others “shocks,” since the expanded comedy field makes room for a lot of other contenders. Bale and DiCaprio are trying to edge into the season’s most competitive race, so they absolutely had to rank here. Isaac and Phoenix are longshots for the Oscar, but worthy of whatever consideration this gives them.

SNUBS: The Globes could have reached for Ben Stiller for The Secret Life of Walter Mitty if they just wanted to populate their ballroom with famous funnymen. Ethan Hawke for Before Midnight could also have been a possibility. Both were extreme longshots, though.

PRIZE FIGHTER SCORE: 5 for 5. But this was an easy one.

NEXT PAGE: ACTRESS – COMEDY/MUSICAL

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