Golden Globes: Sure-things, shocks, and shutdowns -- ANALYSIS

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SUPPORTING ACTOR

Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Daniel Bruhl, Rush
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

CERTAINTIES: Leto. His transgender prostitute in the defiant Dallas Buyers Club is expected to win. For a nomination, no one should doubt Abdi, a total newcomer who has more than earned his slot. Fassbender is another likely contender for his savage, seemingly mentally unhinged slave owner.

SURPRISES: Bradley Cooper’s perm-wearing FBI agent hasn’t gotten much recognition yet, but this is a good first step, albeit a late one.

SNUBS: No Tom Hanks for Saving Mr. Banks. Take that, Walt Disney. After yesterday’s SAG omission, his chance at a dual nomination this year is starting to look weak. Also no mention of James Gandolfini’s endearing slob from Enough Said. Here’s one case where the HFPA’s more self-serving instincts may have taken over. When asked in September if Gandolfini had a shot, one member told me: “Well … he can’t come to the show.”

PRIZE FIGHTER SCORE: Oomph. Not good. 2 for 5. I admire Abdi, but thought the Globes predisposition for celebrity would count him out. I should have guessed Cooper and Fassbender, though. Instead, I had Hanks for Banks, John Goodman for Inside Llewyn Davis, and — the extreme wild card — Colin Farrell for Saving Mr. Banks. Why? The HFPA has a thing for him, and even gave him the trophy one year for In Bruges. Thought I’d stick my neck out, anticipating the Globes to throw in a twist. They didn’t.

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