Golden Globes: Sure-things, shocks, and shutdowns -- ANALYSIS

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SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska

CERTAINTIES: Jennifer Lawrence and Lupita Nyong’o. The only shock would be if their names didn’t end up on the Oscar shortlist. Julia Roberts is a possibility, but could easily fall out. Few films this year are as divisive as August: Osage County.

SURPRISES Not a total left-wing choice, but a solid showing by Sally Hawkins for Blue Jasmine. She is an outside contender for an Oscar nod and this is a definite boost.

SNUBS: Oprah, Oprah, Oprah, OPRAH. Her heli-fortress is currently hovering into position over HFPA headquarters … YOU get a missile, and YOU get a missile, and YOU get a missile!!

PRIZE FIGHTER SCORE: Shmeh. 3 out of 5. I had Octavia Spencer for Fruitvale Station and, of course, Oprah instead of Hawkins and Squibb. This is great for the 84-year-old Squibb, but once again I thought the HFPA would go for star power over merit. So that’s a silver lining to being wrong.

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