surprising win at the Producers Guild Awards, the industry’s two other major guild prizes, the Directors Guild and the Screen Actors Guild, will be handed out this weekend. As is the case with the PGA, there is significant overlap between the other two guilds and the Academy. But don’t expect unanimity in this year’s ultra-tight race. Although Speech director Tom Hooper has a great shot to win the DGA on Saturday night, I’d still say The Social Network‘s David Fincher is the favorite to take home the prize. (The other nominees are Black Swan‘s Darren Aronofsky, Inception‘s Christopher Nolan, and The Fighter‘s David O. Russell.) The SAG nominees for Best Cast, meanwhile, are The King’s Speech, The Social Network, The Fighter, Black Swan, and The Kids Are All Right. Though Speech‘s large, prestigious, and mostly British cast could certainly land the trophy on Sunday, my money is on The Fighter for the win.On the heels of The King’s Speech’s
Should my predictions come to fruition, it would be the first time three movies split the guilds since 2005. That year, The Aviator won the PGA, Million Dollar Baby took home the DGA, and Sideways was the SAG winner. Interestingly, in that case it was the DGA that ended up presaging the Best Picture winner. So even though it has four fewer overall nominations than The King’s Speech, we shouldn’t count out The Social Network just yet. If Hooper takes the DGA on Saturday, however, then Speech may be a done deal.