December was full of wide releases, from family-friendly films like Annie to darker fantasies like The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies—but in the first weekend of the new year, there’s only one huge release: The Woman in Black 2, the sequel to 2012’s horror starring Daniel Radcliffe, is opening in about 2,600 locations.
The first Woman in Black made $20.8 million its debut weekend in February 2012—much more than expected—and it went on to make $54.3 million total in the U.S. While these numbers could indicate the film’s sequel will have a similarly successful debut weekend, the movie also has some factors working against it, including its cast: Radcliffe was a big draw with the first one, especially since The Woman in Black came out just a year after the Harry Potter film series ended, when audiences were extra invested in the actor—but the follow-up doesn’t feature any recognizable stars.
It’s also arriving in theaters at a time when audiences still have multiple new, much-hyped films to see, such as Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken and the musical Into the Woods—and when Night at the Museum and Annie are holding onto their spots in the top five thanks to moviegoers looking for PG-rated options. But there’s hope The Woman in Black 2 could crack the top five. Here’s how it could play out: