The awards gods don’t seem to be smiling on me this year. First, I publish my Oscar nomination predictions, which end up matching perfectly with the Producers Guild and Directors Guild nominees but naturally miss a few of the eventual Academy Award honorees. Then I arrive at my Oscar-winner guesses…which almost completely match with this weekend’s BAFTA winners. So, with my predictions hitting newsstands today, I ask you: What have I (and my intrepid colleague Thom Geier, who handles all the documentary and shorts races) gotten wrong? Let us have it.
Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Director, Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Actor: Sean Penn, Milk
Actress: Kate Winslet, The Reader
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Supporting Actress: Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Original Screenplay: Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Adapted Screenplay: Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
Animated Film: Wall-E
Foreign-Language Film: The Class
Documentary: Man On Wire
Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
Cinematography: Slumdog Millionaire
Art Direction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Costume Design: The Duchess
Makeup: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Score: Slumdog Millionaire
Song: “Jai Ho,” Slumdog Millionaire
Visual Effects: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Sound: The Dark Knight
Sound Mixing: The Dark Knight
Short: Spielzugland (Toyland)
Animated Short: Presto
Documentary Short: The Witness: From the Balcony of Room 306
Sean Penn is not going to win for Milk. It’s definitely be Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler …..
Finally having seen Vicky Christina Barcelona, i would have to say that the person who should win Best Supproting Actress is… Viola Davis. Penelope Cruz, who was admittably good in the Woody Allen flick has nothing on the depth and honesty and skill of the craft shown by Viola Davis is Doubt. To me, this is a no brainer.
I am also so glad to see you pick Sean Penn over Mickey Rourke. Rourke’s performance, although well executed, is only second to Penelope Cruz on the Most Overrated Preformance of the Year List. This year’s race should have been a three-horse race between Penn, Langella and Leonardo DiCaprio in Revolutionary Road (it’s a shame he wasn’t nominated)
Although I do feel that both Cruz and Rourke are worthy of a nomination, I don’t feel that either gave the best performance in their category.
I really hope its Mickey Rourke over Sean Penn for best actor, but it really is a toss up. :/
i honestly think anne hatheway deserves to win in the best supportign actress category over winslet and streep. I think she loses cred because rachel getting married didnt have the major promotion the reader and doubt reveled in. As a mattter of fact of all winslet street and hatheway i think winslet dererves it the least
i almost dont wanna watch this year, just because the predictable slumdog train will roll over everything.
such an overrated movie. again, not bad by any means, but nowhere near “best” either.
I think we’re looking at a couple surprises (i hope!). I predict Viola Davis upsets Penelope Cruz in best supporting actress, and someone completely random wins best original screenplay (maybe the writers of Wall E will claim it; or In Bruges). Just my gut feeling! And watch out for Mickey Rourke in best actor, I think it’s actually a pretty even horse race for best Actor.
I think you’re underestimating Wall-E winning more categories.
i still dont think slumdong will will screenplay- i think frost / nixon is gonna get it… its also not winning for song
I’d like to see Milk take Best Picture, Slumdog was cool, but not on the same level as the Van Sant picture.
I really hope Mickey Rourke wins over Sean Penn. I thought Rourke was spectacular and Penn just “so-so”. I don’t understand why his performance is getting so much hype. I’d love to see Meryl Streep upset Winslet in the actress category. She was amazing in Doubt (although I haven’t seen The Reader yet). I think it’s stupid that it’s a foregone conclusion that Milk will win best screenplay. It wasn’t even good. The best screenplay should go to In Bruges but unfortunately the academy overlooked that one.
aaron i couldnt agree more… slumdong is the most overrated film of 2008.
Nathan, if Milk wins best picture it would be absurd. Even Frost/Nixon is more deserving.
I’d like to see Milk take Best Picture, Slumdog was cool, but not on the same level as the Van Sant picture.
I would say it might be a Richard Jenkins “dark horse” win, sneaking in between 2 bigger names and stories (Penn & Rourke) duking it out. See Adrien Brody, 2002. I’m taking the risk in all my Oscar pools!
I hope you’re right with Best Actress.
If there’s an upset there I’m hoping and praying it goes to Melissa Leo or Anne Hathaway and not Streep. I’ve got loads of respect for her talent, but think her turn in Doubt was good, not great, and definitely not the best performance of the year.
I’m rooting for ‘O Saya’ to beat ‘Jai Ho’. How cool would it be for M.I.A. to win an Oscar? Especially just weeks after losing a Grammy that easily should have been hers.
Also pulling for WALL*E in the sound categories! By far the most memorable and effective sound in any movie this year.