It feels like the holidays. The weather has turned frigid. Holiday shopping is frantic and children are itching for an escape from school. But, we all still have at least a week to go, and with mothers specifically operating on overload this time of year, vacation is not quite here. Which is precisely why The Princess and the Frog will open to number one but it won’t be a record-breaking smash. People are just too busy. Reviews are almost unanimously positive for this successful return to form for Disney and 2-D animation so it’s a guarantee the movie will play to some really strong numbers all through the holiday season. The other wide release this frame is Clint Eastwood’s Invictus, starring Matt Damon and Morgan Freeman. Lately, Eastwood can do no wrong and grownups will be thrilled to have a movie to call their own. Read on for my predictions for how this frame plays out.
1. The Princess and the Frog: $24 million
Two years ago Alvin and the Chipmunks opened in mid-December to an astounding $44 million — marking a high-point in box-office history for animated movies in December. It’s unlikely Princess and the Frog will nab such a large debut considering the word “Princess” is guaranteed to turn off half the kid movie-going population and the film is opening a little too early to win those families on opening weekend. (It would have made more sense to open next weekend, but with Avatar blacking out anything else in its path, Disney really had no other choice.) Princess did have an auspicious beginning, earning — in two weeks time — close to $1 million with specially priced tickets in two theaters. The movie — Disney’s valiant return to form for 2-D animation — is still likely to do some solid business through the season. It will have to fight with those chipmunks, though, come Christmas Day.
2. The Blind Side: $12 million
It has already made over $130 million in three weeks of release, proving that Sandra Bullock is almost as big of a box office draw as Meryl Streep. The drama’s fourth weekend in theaters should be solid as well. Expect a 40% drop for a film that’s likely to hang in there all the way through the holidays.
3. Invictus: $10 million
The last few Clint Eastwood movies (Gran Torino, Million Dollar Baby) have opened limited in December and have gone on to very successful runs. This time around he’s got Matt Damon and Morgan Freeman in starring roles so it’s not surprising that Warner Bros is willing to open nationwide with this the film, based on Nelson Mandela’s attempt to turn its all-white rugby team into World Cup champions. How it performs will be directly in line to how it’s reviewed, and so far it’s looking pretty good. The opening may be modest but this film should have staying power.
4. The Twilight Saga: New Moon: $8 million
The second installment of the Twilight series has made close to $260 million in three weeks of release. That’s crazy money for a $50 million melodrama about werewolves and vampires. It’s been falling fast as of late, over 60% each weekend. And with a close to $600 million worldwide box office, it’s got to peter out soon. It’s still quite a phenomenon that many will try to replicate but most will fail.
5. Brothers: $5 million
This family/war drama has earned another $2 million during the week. Not bad for a subject deemed too-tough-to-watch over the last year. It does help that Jake Gyllenhaal, Natalie Portman, and Tobey Maguire are starring. Perhaps the solid weekdays will portend a healthy second weekend for the Jim Sheridan-directed drama.
Opening in limited release: Paramount launches Peter Jackson’s The Lovely Bones in three theaters. The Weinstein Co. will bow Tom Ford’s much buzzed about film A Single Man in nine theaters.
Photo Credit: Disney
so want to see the princess and the frog it looks beautiful and the frogs look so cute=)
The Princess and the Frog made $2.8 million in those two theaters over two weeks. Keep staying accurate EW.
little girls who’ll want to grow up to be princesses will want to watch this movie.
kids who grew up with traditional 2D animation will want to watch this movie.
Families of all sorts will want to watch this movie.
the G rating alone will attract lots of people.
i hope you’re wrong about the $24 million weekend. i’m praying it’ll pull in about $35 million
Yeah, I think people are underestimating th 20-something set of folks who are like, “woah, a REAL Disney movie again!” I love that of all people it was John Lasseter who pushed for their return after he took over Disney animation. Ultimately, the god of CGI animation is the one who gives us the gift of hand-drawn.
agreed.
I’m guess in more like $35-40 million…
I want to see this movie. I mean, I love Pixar, but I kind of miss the old 2-D princess movies Disney use to release.
Don’t bring pixar into this. That company started with computer animation this is disney not pixar.
Someone told me interracial dating is at the center of this movie, WHAT? does disney not know values of a typical christian family or they dont care? I know my parents and even more so my grand parents are opposed to interracial relations, so i am not going to see this movie as it would insult my parents. Also this subject offends most asians, latinos, blacks, not only Whites BTW, finally lets be honest a black cast is a turnoff to most Whites
Wow, what an incredibly racist comment.
So you won’t watch a film just because it features non-white people?
How pathetic, ignorant, and prejudiced.
Hey sportlo, you must spend a fortune in dry cleaning to keep your white robes and pointy hat so clean.
It’s just quite funny how you put a capital letter to Whites, but not Asians, Latinos or Blacks.
This kind of comments just make me incredibly sad: both the blatant racism, but also judging something before actually seeing it. I guess those two go in pairs… Sad sad sad.
love has no color.
go back to the 50s.
You are what’s wrong with the world today. Pathetic comment.
Did you just use Christianity to justify your racism? Do you have any clue how many interracial couples there are in the Bible? For example, Moses (a Jew) was married to an African (Ethiopian). As a Chrisitan, I am really offended when people use the Bible to justify positions that are contrary to Jesus’ teachings. Please, go back and read the Bible so you’ll understand how truly ignorant your post is. Your racist view is the very reason a movie like this is necessary. Hopefully you won’t pass the same ignorance/racist ideas on to your children.
It’s people like you who give Christians a bad name. Just so you know, Moses married someone of a different race than himself. Oh, and Jesus was a descendant of Ruth and Boaz…who were a biracial couple. Way to not know your own belief system.
The fact that they fall in love as frogs shows that the characters were not paying attention to what each other looked like on the outside, rather they found the good inside of each other. Isn’t that what Christians as supposed to do. Learn the doctrine not just the traditions of your religion.
Urgh !! Are you kidding ? Did you say you’re against interracial relationships because you’re christian ? I can’t believe you seriously posted this comment. As a member of a Christian biracial family I’m offended by what you wrote and I really don’t know what prevents me from telling you to go f*** yourself. (oops – guess I did.) I think it’s bold from Disney to have made a movie based on interracial relationship and I’m glad they chose this subject for their first 2-D animated film in years. Shame on you and everyone in your family who has the same opinion for being so ignorant and intolerant. You just ruined my morning by your very existence.
I think you’re low-balling Princess by a good $10 million to $15 million. Seriously, I know many, many, many people, not even kids, who are thrilled to see an old-school 2D animated Disney movie, and I doubt we’re alone. Is it going to be a $75 million smash, no, but only $24 million? Please.
Also, I think Invictus will probably come in at #2 and The Blinde Side #3. The grosses are probably about accurate, just switched.
And I’d love for Brothers (wouldn’t finish in the top five last week, right Sperling?) to be #4 ahead of Twilight. New Moon’s dropping like a rock; I think you’re giving it too much, but then again, you did last week, too.
Anyway, main point is, $24 million for the return of classic Disney is laughably low.
How does it feel to be proven wrong? I know you don’t do this professionally but your arrogance deserves to be pointed out.
Sportlo, please don’t lump the rest of us Christians in with your horrible racist outlook.
I actually volunteer with our church youth group alongside a wonderful interracial couple… who just had a beautiful baby last year! Maybe he’ll be checking out this movie in a few years’ time.
Let me get this straight. The triumphant return of Disney’s traditionally animated movies, which is getting glowing reviews and has earned $2.7 million in two weeks (where’d you get the million number from, exactly?), to open at a decent-but-not-great $24 million? Hah!
And you talk about the kid audience (so no boys ever watched Snow White, Beauty and the Beast or The Little Mermaid, right?), but what about the adult audience? I grew up during the Disney Renaissance of ’89-’98, and I can guarantee that large numbers of people my age (most of whom don’t have kids) are VERY excited and feeling nostalgic about this movie. It’ll be a hit with the kids, but I promise it won’t just be kids seeing it.
And $24 million is way too low. That’s almost insulting.
I’d expect numbers to be closer to thirty-million. I know I’m not a professional, but that’s just me.
It’s getting my money. I can’t wait to see it.
If you wanna see a great movie, See Brothers. I definitly recommend it. Harrowing, blunt, and erotic. ok well maybe not erotic, but still a good movie
Some of you need to chill out about the box office previews/results blogs. Nicole has every right to give her predictions the way she sees fit. There’s a reason it’s called predictions: the returns might be accurate, or it might blow us all away. Judging someone’s intellect based of inaccurate assumptions takes things a bit far. It’s all in good fun, and shouldn’t be taken seriously, but obviously, these discussions have obviously gone far beyond that point.
With that said, I agree that $24 mil is a bit low for Princess and the Frog. When even G-Force has the buying power to beat Harry Potter: HBP, never underestimate the appeal of a kid’s film.
Kids will watch anything and G force didnt ‘beat’ HP.They just earned more in hp’s 2nd weekend.
You’re right. I forgot to add that G-force indeed beat Harry Potter: HBP during its second weekend. But the point still stands: kids WILL watch anything. Added with the adults who’re looking forward to a traditional 2D Disney animated movie, I wouldn’t be surprised if Princess and the Frog made over 50 mil this weekend.
It’s true kids would watch anything – their parents agree to go watch with them. Come on, every parent that loved Disney movies, take your children to see this one !! I can’t wait to see it myself and I hope it will be a huge success so Disney will keep making other ones (They had stopped because The Treasure’s Planet had not been the success they expected it to be – let’s not let it happen again) !
This person is, I assume, making a living based on her opinions and evaluations of things like the box office. I don’t think it’s asking too much that her predictions be at least somewhat accurate, or what’s the point of having her write this piece as opposed to some random person off the street? If she’s going to take the time to do it, at least try to be mostly correct. I won’t begrudge her a few million here or there (she laid an egg last week, too, putting Brothers out of the top five), but a blind man could see that $24 million for this movie is shockingly low.
And you’ve already been corrected on G-Force, so I’ll let that go.
As you’ll be able to see by the weekend results, the movie made 25 million. As you mentioned, the writer of this article does make a living in the field so why think that you who doesn’t have a paycheck riding on this can better predict the box office results? Don’t go critizising a forecast based on professional opinion specially when at the end of the weekend it’s been proven right!
First of all, Sportlo, you need to turn into a frog. Second, “The Princess and the Frog” will make over $60million this weekend. Everyone wants to see it, that is, except Sportlo.
How wrong you’ve been proven!! 25 million is all the movie made.
I saw this movie last night, it is very, very good! I highly recommend it!
To those crying racism: welcome to America and freedom of speech. Political correctness won’t silence or change racial preference in anyone. Racism and personal preferences are NOT against the law. I, too, think that Disney bowing at the altar of PC is what will kill this movie, not people being “too busy.” The traditional Disney audience will probably avoid this film. It is easier to deal with reality, even if it hurts.