This weekend we learn whether Paramount’s gamble will pay off. The studio decided last year to push its Martin Scorsese-Leonardo DiCaprio thriller Shutter Island out of the crowded award season and into the new year where it could breathe a bit. Will the strategy work? Tracking results are suggesting yes, with the R-rated thriller likely to bow in the high 20s, a similar number to 2006′s Departed, which opened to $26.9 million. And with no other new wide releases opening this weekend, the well-reviewed film will have the weekend all to itself. Plus, with President’s Day generating such huge numbers last weekend, those releases are likely to fall off significantly in their second weekend in theaters. Read on for my predictions.
1. Shutter Island: $29 million
Opening in over 2,500 theaters, Shutter Island marks the first true prestige pic of 2010. And with films like Valentine’s Day and Wolfman generating impressive grosses despite terrible reviews, this well-liked movie should be rewarded for its quality. Shutter stars DiCaprio, Mark Ruffalo, Ben Kingsley, and Michelle Williams, based on the novel by Dennis Lehane.
2. Valentine’s Day: $22 million
Warner Bros. overestimated its Monday holiday gross by $3 million, suggesting that the film that drew in over $63 million its first weekend in theaters was already starting to fall off by the end of the weekend. Expect at least a 60 percent drop this frame, especially considering how Valentine’s Day, the holiday, is already long gone from people’s minds.
3. Percy Jackson and the Olympians: $19 million
There is very little in the marketplace for kids right now, which is good news for this Chris Columbus-directed film. The movie has already earned over $40 million and a 40% drop could mean Fox develops an appetite for a follow-up to this fantasy adventure based on the Rick Riordan novels.
4. Avatar: $17 million
A 30 percent drop is likely for this juggernaut, which has never fallen more than 27 percent since it bowed 10 weekends ago.
5. The Wolfman: $13
Yes, The Wolfman earned $35.6 million last weekend, but still, nobody really liked the movie. Critics panned it and moviegoers gave this reboot of the classic horror film a C+ in exit polls. Expect a steep drop this frame, especially considering it’s now up against the higher-caliber thriller Shutter Island.
Also: Summit Entertainment will open Roman Polanski’s Ghost Writer in four theaters; two in NY and two in LA.
Image credit: Andrew Cooper
No way VD makes it past 15 million in week two.
Don’t underestimate women. Also Valentine’s Day seems to be getting decent word of mouth despite the bad reviews of critics.
I beg to differ. Everyone I know who’s seen it said it either sucked or was just okay. Nothing special. I doubt it will make over 15 mil this weekend. I think Shutter Island will make over 30mil, second place will go to Percy Jackson with 25 mil, and third will go to The Wolfman with 18 mil.
Please don’t assume that ALL women have terrible enough taste to think that Valentine’s Day is good, or that Valentine’s Day is the “perfect women’s movie.” I’m a woman and I thought it sucked. I’m seeing Shutter Island this weekend.
VD is the perfect crapstorm. Moviegoers don’t realize that they’ve been shat upon until they do their laundry.
Hated the film but the audience behind me, predictably, roared with laughter throughout(and collectively gasped when the gay reveal was made).
Didn’t ask. Don’t tell.
Actually, Skiiboski, research indicates that about 12 million new VD infections occur in the United States alone…nothing to “clap” about.
I wish I wasn’t so stupid
Oh, Nerwen, I have a feeling you’re stirring up a hornets nest with the first half of that comment.
The Wolfman is not a reboot. It is a remake.
Our statistical model at boxofficepredict.com is forecasting $27.1m. Very close to your prediction of $29m.
Wolfman was actually a fun movie to watch. For a horror movie, the effects were scary and I had a good time. Give it a chance, you won’t be disappointed.
I’m looking forward to seeing “Shutter Island” this weekend. Although as a frequent film-goer, I was ready to blow my brains out if I saw the trailer ONE. MORE. TIME. It was delayed so much, and then put in with almost every movie I’ve seen since summer ended… Still, I’ll try to put that out of my mind and enjoy!
Another role that should go to someone ten years older than Leonardo DiCaprio.
Not going to any movies that are by Roman Polanski or Martin Scorsese. Martin was quite supportive of Roman’s right to rape little girls.
If absolute garbage like Valentine’s Day can make 50+ mil, then in a rational world, Shutter Island should double it, unfortunately people are stupid, so this doesn’t happen.
Or, you know, not in love with violence
I worked for the highly overrated Scorsese back in the ’70s. He’s an egomaniacal creep & his movies (with the exception of “Alice Doesn’t Live Here Anymore” and “Age of Innocence”) are crap! Poor Leo’s career is doomed if he doesn’t bail out (the critics are already turning on him). DeNiro (another lunatic) & Marty were made for each other!
The fact that you don’t include “Gangs of New York” or “The Departed” as Martin’s triumphs instantly discredits anything you say.
Sorry man, but Gangs was a deeply flawed movie. The only reason to rewatch the movie is for Day-Lewis’ performance as the Butcher.
Shutter island is only opening in 2500 screen, so 29 might be a bit high. I say 25 million$
Shutter island is only opening in 2500 theater, so 29 might be a bit high. I say 25 million$
They should have made half the characters in Shutter Island blue, and made it 3D. Oh wait, that would have been stupid.
And how exactly was Gangs of New York a “deeply flawed film”?
Shutter island seems to be a great movie. though some critics say it has this B movie profile.
uhmmmmmI am intrigued, but definetely I will go to watch it.
About Wereworolf it was very well produced, performances were well done, but something in the plot was without a doubt missing.
there are a part in the movie when you already know Anthony Hopkins’s character is the werewolf who killed his son and kill his onw wife. It was a little bit predictable, also the last stand between Benicio’s were wolf and Hopkin’s counterpart was so cliche, and the fact that Hugo Weaver’s character got infected by the end of the film was terrible…though it was great Blut’s character killed Benicio at the end. still it was fun entertainment!